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Clearly, the pumps were empty because of a "lack of demand." Nobody wants the stuff.
In any case back in the real world where most of us live, spot shortages are just a sign of being barely above MOL. Nationwide, we have less than two days of supply in excess of MOL. So, in some areas we are going periodically drop down very close to MOL, resulting in empty gas stations. We saw it here in Dallas when gasoline was being shipped in tanker trucks up to Chicago.
The East Coast could be a real problem. Expect to see tanker truck convoys of gasoline headed to the East Coast from other regions.
Let's see:
Door #1: We will continue to see--essentially forever--an exponential rate of increase in the consumption of and import of a finite fossil fuel supply: http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/28/Data_4weeks.png
OR
Door #2: At some point, we will see a bidding war for the declining net export capacity of crude oil and petroleum products: http://static.flickr.com/97/240076673_494160e1a0_o.png
Some industry "spin" on the refinery issue....
Oil industry sees drop in future gasoline demand, is scaling back refinery expansions
They learned that one from the Saudi's who are scaling back their infrastucture expansion as there just isn't enough demand for oil. They also announced black is white and 2+2=5.
Balck is white or rather white is black, here is how I can prove it. Stare at the sun with one eye, If you lock your eye on it, you will soon get the phase shift from the staring at the object in this case a Medium level Yellow star we call the sun, but it is bright white to most of your normal eyes and then the stare turns it to black.
Your eyes flicker at 3 times per second It is the Human eye's refresh rate. When you stare at an object you get tunnel vision and you get the phase shift of white to black and other neat things going on. Staring without turning off your refresh rate is hard to do when you look at the sun, and don't do it for longer than a few seconds, it can leave spots before your eyes. I think that the limit is a bit over 3 to 9 minutes of staring and your eyes recieve permanant damage from looking at the sun. Call me crazy I can make a decent sextant with on hand and plot courses that way.
I'm convinced that gasoline shortages will be the tipping point for awareness - one can argue all day about how much oil is left in the world, but if you can't buy gas when you "need" it these esoteric discussions quickly vaporize.
I expect any news about local shortages to be contained locally - in other words, the national MSM will avoid any mention of such things for as long as possible. If some dumb shlub in Sioux Falls gets caught with kiddie porn on his computer it will be the headline on CNN, but gasoline shortages won't be mentioned until that elephant-in-the-room starts sitting on people.
The MSM will report on this problem when the elephant is peeling squashed carcasses off its feet and throwing them at the wall. IOW, when there are riots and shootings in the gas station queues.
I suspect you dropped an 'h' and mistyped, if you are trying to point to what the MSM needs to have happen to stimulate appropriate coverage.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
I'm convinced that gasoline shortages will be the tipping point for awareness ...
Hm, they'll produce heat, but I'm not sure they'll produce light. It all depends on what the citizenry believes has caused the shortages. This will be greatly influenced by the media. PO will be low down on the list of causes presented.
Hmmm...Saudi Arabia's oil consumption rises 6.2% in 2006 (via 321energy)
110k b/d more - not terribly significant right now. OTOH, over time...
Also, let's not forget Door #3, more complicated and expensive sources (biofuel, CTL, etc.) increasing over time. It's not mutually exclusive with Door #2. Not a simple picture, a messy one.
From 2005 to 2006, the top five net exporters (half of net exports in 2006) showed a 1.3% decline in production, a 5.5% increase in consumption and a 3.3% decrease in exports (Total Liquids, EIA).
We are working on a paper on the top five. The high case production rate will be no decline. Assuming a 5% rate of increase in consumption per year, this would mean about a 3% annual decline in net exports.
I don't have the hard numbers yet on HL projections, but if we assume a 5% annual decline rate in production (especially when Russia starts declining), and a 5% annual rate of increase in consumption, exports by the top five would be at more or less zero in about 14 years. This would be a decline rate of about 22% per year in net exports by the top five.
Mexico is currently showing a 16% annual decline rate in exports (down 18% from 1/06 to 4/07), and from 2000 to 2005, the UK showed an annual decline rate of 60% per year in net exports.
So the projected 22% decline rate would be between these two real life case histories.
IMO, the very lifeblood of the world industrial economy--net crude oil and petroleum product exports--is draining away in front of our very eyes. The only question is how soon the patient is going to die.
It does look dire at 22%/year, but consider the situation of the exporters: most of them are major importers of finished goods and food. They won't be able to maintain domestic consumption increases in the face of import prices rising in step with oil prices. This will restrain the domestic growth and put the export decline closer to the total rate of decline.
Not that we don't have plenty of problems which needed action years ago, but we may not be in such a bad situation as you think.
>The East Coast could be a real problem. Expect to see tanker truck convoys of gasoline headed to the East Coast from other regions.
I haven't seen any shortages yet, and pump prices have declined by a few pennies. Traffic is crazy with morning rush hour starting at about 5:45 AM and ending about 10 AM, evening RUSH hour starts about 3:15 PM and ends about 8 PM. On the flip side, commuter train traffic is up, but its not having any noticable impact on commuting traffic. It seems that traffic congestion is getting worse despite the higher prices and slowing economy.
In Michigan there are some "Share-A-Ride" lots along the Interstates where people who carpool can leave their cars. They are as full as I've ever seen them.