I think the oil shocks from the 70s provide some good data. Gas station closings and "out of gas" signs, coupled with rising gas prices, induce panic buying and hoarding, drawing down stocks faster, increasing the likelihood of dipping below the MOL.

Well, where is the data? Just because certain events occurred doesn't mean they were related unless we can show that. I'd love to see some correlation between these factors that looks reasonable so where is it?

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett