<DrumBeat: June 17, 2007The Oil DrumDrumBeat: June 18, 2007>

44 comments on Peak Oil Media

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hbj on June 17, 2007 - 3:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Just listened to a Kunstler lecture.

Yikes.

His arrogance and lack of scientific rigor will really diminish the credibility of the Peak Oil cause to those who don't know much about it, imo. And I'm a New England liberal!

I guess this points to a possible problem coming up. At the moment, peak oil is a "niche" enough cause that so far it's been able to be dominated by credible voices. But as it becomes more widely known about, blowhards-with-a-cause like Kunstler may take over the debate in the public forum, and make it more difficult to generate and sustain real understanding and action as people tend to take it less seriously because of its visible proponents.

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westexas on June 17, 2007 - 3:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"blowhards-with-a-cause like Kunstler"

How many times and for how many years has this "blowhard" been warning us that the US suburban model is unsustainable and likely to collapse?

The End of Suburbia DVD (EOS) was built around an interview with Jim Kunstler, and everything he said in EOS looks remarkably prescient now.

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oregon7 on June 17, 2007 - 3:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm listening now, and 2/3 through I haven't heard him repeat his technologically uninformed comments from Long Emergency. I think he has learned from critics of that book (I'm guessing) and is confining himself to the cultural/political critic mode, which he does very well.

Look, we all understand that Kunstler was fiction writer first, cultural/urban critic second, and is not trained as a scientist. He has sometimes said things that make that painfully obvious. That doesn't mean he deserves to be dismissed.

Kunstler's analysis of the state of our society and its possible futures are worth thinking about and meditating on.

I found him to be very sober and well grounded (even in scientific terms) in this talk.

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sofistek on June 17, 2007 - 5:57pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Which technologically uninformed comments are you referring to, from The Long Emergency?

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oregon7 on June 17, 2007 - 9:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Frankly, I remember rolling my eyes when I read his technological arguments about alternative energies in the Long Emergency... sounded like an undergraduate term paper. My copy is long gone by now. I remember him lumping his dismissal of completely loony ideas together with his dismissal of techno-solutions upon which reasonable people still disagree (with no sense that he understood the difference), and having a sense that he was parroting opinions, not analyzing options. Scientifically informed friends of mine rejected his good arguments about human society in the present because of his amateurish discussion of energy alternatives... and I remember having to agree with them that his discussion was pretty weak.

Kunstler is not in a position to speak intelligently about alternative energy options. The best he can do is report other people's opinions.

-------------

I think his critique of the contemporary social and political blindness is spot on. His "greatest misallocation of resources in human history" argument hardly seems disputable. His "they still want to make the world safe for cars" is the bomb. He's a prophet.

Nobody knows however how fast things will fall apart, how quickly and to what extent we'll organize alternatives (in energy and in ways of life). But a great deal depends on technological unknowables that people other than Kunstler have a better basis to speculate on than does he.

The best argument that civilization can survive peak oil comes from Cuba, in my opinion. The American southwest is of course doomed. Huge areas of the world are overpopulated for a non-petro-agricultural food economy. We're heading for a big mess. But even as we descend, I'm a techno-optimist in the sense that I think islands of humanity will devise clever and violent ways of surviving.

I don't know how big those geo-political islands will be... I just think that the general downward trend will be resisted in some places.

I'm betting that we're screwed, but not doomed.

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TechGuy on June 17, 2007 - 9:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

>Kunstler is not in a position to speak intelligently about alternative energy options. The best he can do is report other people's opinions.

Kunstler also believe that the Y2K probably would cause a huge collapse as technology all over the US would fail plunging us into darkness. His creditablity is virtually non-existant at this point.

>The best argument that civilization can survive peak oil comes from Cuba, in my opinion.

Bad example. Cuba imports a massive amount of food from the US and its economy is dependant on toursism.

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sofistek on June 18, 2007 - 1:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

His creditablity is virtually non-existant at this point.

Clearly, that's not true. Otherwise he would not get invited to speak at conferences or in documentaries and he would sell only fiction. Also, people like oregon7 wouldn't be saying nice things about him. Maybe you meant to say that you, personally, don't accept anything he says, simply because he was predicting catastrophe over Y2K. Who knows, his prediction may have worked out, to some extent, if nothing had been done about it. Something was done about it, so some people now say that it is an example of a non-event and proves peak oil will be also.

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sofistek on June 18, 2007 - 3:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well, one of his constant themes in The Long Emergency is that he's not convinced that the alternative energies that he examines can be built without a fossil fuel based infrastructure. I guess his failing here is that he never quite explained why that would not be possible in the future. But I generally agree with him, in the sorts of timescale we need.

He's not an energy scientist so I don't know why your friend would expect a highly technical study of the alternatives. Others have done better jobs there and largely come to the same conclusions (like Richard Heinberg and Paul Roberts, though the latter did, at one time, appear to hold out hope for hydrogen). So far I haven't read a convincing case that a combination of alternatives could keep the party going for long, once oil starts to decline.

Remember that Kunstler was examining alternatives, in terms of enabling our current oil based way of life to continue. The alternatives may be very useful for different living arrangements, but that was not his focus in that section of his book.

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dinopello on June 17, 2007 - 9:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Not PO related, but Kunstler disciples might find this talk from 2000 interesting.

http://www.isi.org/lectures/lectures.aspx?SBy=lecture&SFor=3bae5354-f648...

Audio only.

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davebygolly on June 17, 2007 - 11:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I agree with WT. Kunstler has done valuable work on promoting PO and especially EOS. And I say this despite his (JK's)frothing on the 9-11 issue and unwillingness to think unpleasant thoughts about some of the geopolitical corollaries of PO. His insights on EOS more than make up for all other defects.

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DavidM on June 17, 2007 - 5:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Scientific rigor is extremely important in the Peak Oil debate, but it's not what's going to shift public opinion.

Perhaps no one has done more to get Peak Oil into the public forum than James Howard Kunstler.

Don't forget Nate's post:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2592

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mose on June 17, 2007 - 11:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Kunstler is OK, way too Yankee-centric for my personal taste however. I will take my chances here in Texas with the rest of the "country boys". Be sure and check back in 20 years or so and lets see who did better.

He does seem to be in favor of Vermont going it's own way. Great, take all the other original 13 with you. I always had the feeling the umbilical cord to Europe grew back 50 or so years ago anyway. Here is to the future Grand Duchy of Texas!

Mose in Midland

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Samsara on June 18, 2007 - 9:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Maybe you would enjoy Joe Bageant. Great Writer.
I call him the NASCAR Kunstler.

GREAT PROSE.

http://www.joebageant.com/

Madmen and Sedatives: Inside the Iron Theater
http://www.joebageant.com/joe/2006/09/madmen_and_seda.html

Back to the Ancient Future
http://www.joebageant.com/joe/2005/04/back_to_the_anc.html

Somewhere a Banker Smiles
http://www.joebageant.com/joe/2006/12/somewhere_a_ban.html

Poor, White and Pissed
A Guide to the White Trash Planet for Urban Liberals
http://www.joebageant.com/joe/2005/02/poor_white_and_.html

AND TheOilDrum just got mentioned in this posting on his site by a reader....

Tired of fear and loathing in Los Angeles

Hey Joe,

I have been reading your articles for about a year running now and each paragraph pushes me a little closer to escape. Each article shines more light on the psychotic vampire of a socio-economic system we live under. I can see the blood dripping from its fangs. But I am confused, lost. You see, I happen to have a very specific skill that the Hollywood mythmakers find very appealing. As a result, I am 23 and making more money than 99% of the world's citizens. Yet it does not feel that way. Living in this city drains you as fast as it fills you, be it gas, food, rent or entertainment. I spent $40 on four drinks Friday.

I can't stand it here anymore, yet I find it impossible to leave. I used to like my job, but now I can't see it outside of the context of the greater machine: I create amazing visual events for people to be awed by. A modern shaman. Instead of spinning tales of heroism or epic journeys, I merely create the vast explosions and immense destruction demanded by the modern audience. But why do they need this? To pepper their lives with some element of the spectacular? I wonder if what I am doing is any good. Sure, people have a good time going to the movies, but more and more, I leave the cinema feeling worthless, controlled and foolish. I don't think entertainment in its current incarnation has much to offer the world.

So I wish to escape. I want to run, to leave what this nation has become, even though I love what is was. But all the signs are pointing, the klaxons are blaring. This is the time. I need to leave. But I am scared. My father is dying, I am young and stupid, and no one seems to understand what it is that upsets me so much about this American life, beyond my sister and fellow bloggers like JHK and The Oil Drum crowd.

I first got into this through the peak oil connection, and now peak oil is starting to get major press. But it seems that the whole horrible affair goes much deeper than mere oil supplies. I think I am watching my fellow countrymen be mentally crippled, incapable of thought or action. Incapable of organization and fearful of his peers.

http://www.joebageant.com/joe/2007/06/tired_of_fear_a.html

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confederate on June 17, 2007 - 7:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

hbj
jh kunstler rocks.
been fan of his since early 90's.
omly got into peak oil cuz of kunstler.
the man's a literary genius.
Have u READ any of his books??!
I'm a southern libertrian.
he has big following down here.

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mr f on June 17, 2007 - 8:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

confederate,

hbj is just trying to show you how dumb a "liberal" from New England is capable of being! ;]

"A liberal is a man too broadminded to take his own side in a quarrel."
--Robert Frost

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confederate on June 17, 2007 - 8:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

O, got it.
thanks mr f

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Swede on June 18, 2007 - 11:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

HBJ
Why is this PO cause and its credibility so important to you and many other posters? IMO we don´t have to persuade others of the facts, the facts will present them selves when the crisis begins in earnest.

Tell your nearest friends if they care to listen, and prepare yourself to survive the coming debacle. And let the others take the full hit and possibly the risk of die-off also.

IMO it´s too late for the societies to mitigate the crisis(Hirsh report et al).

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