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87 comments on The Behavioral Aspects of Peak Oil: Basic Contingencies
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87 comments on The Behavioral Aspects of Peak Oil: Basic Contingencies
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Excellent article, it's refreshing to see a discussion of, well, how to frame the discussion!
In response to the call for suggestions, I've been mulling over an idea or two. If the problem is defined as "how do we change peoples behavior" then I believe one of the most effective arguments would be to frame it in economic terms.
I am not a behavioral psychologist, but in layman's terms it easy to see that people have a few core motivators, i.e. providing necessities for themselves and their families, cultural identity, religious faith, etc.
In fulfilling those motivations each individuals world view informs many, if not most of their day to day decisions, and in today's modern societies the primary context for most peoples world view is their economic status.
The primacy of the consumer oriented growth economy has been virtually unchallenged by any society for centuries. Not even to any great degree by communism or socialism. It is this unquestioned assumption that perpetual growth and unrestrained consumption is an absolute good that I think must be challenged in the most fundamental and creative way possible.
The article makes an excellent case that people do not want to be told bad news, nor do they want to hear that they must sacrifice a high standard of living today for the benefit of unseen future generations. And yet somehow people must be persuaded to change their lifestyles if we are to avoid the worst of the negative consequences of resource depletion and ecological overshoot.
The answer then, I believe, lies in reframing the economic paradigm and, by extension, reframing peoples world view. Day to day economic decisions by people all over the world must be changed from "how much abundance can I enjoy today" to "how well have I preserved my abundance for perpetuity".
If peoples primary motivators, and their resulting rewards in life, are intimately tied to how well they take care of their piece of the world then I believe we will see a truly sustainable society arise spontaneously from the day to day decisions of everyone on the planet.
The unquestioned assumption that the perpetual growth machine that is our consumer oriented economy is an absolute good must be directly challenged and somehow transformed into one where the absolute good is instead a caretaker economy.
Taking care of our planets productivity.
Taking care of our resources.
Taking care of our environment.
Taking care of our prosperity, as well as the prosperity of our children, and their children, and their children.
With much worry about the future weighing heavily on many peoples minds I think this is a message that will resonate. We're already seeing seeds of it being planted with the talk of "stewardship" in some religious circles.
However, what I feel is more important, this idea has a fundamentally positive basis on which people can build. It presents people not with the negative question of "what must you sacrifice today for the good of tomorrow?", but instead with the positive inspiration of "you know what your job is, now how well can you do it?".
Cheers,
Jerry
Jerry raises a very interesting set of points, not least of which is the way worldview acts as a default setting, if you will, for how people interpret novel information and experience. The growth culture is predicated not only on the objective fact of increasing energy consumption/capita, but also on the subjective experience of progress in virtually all realms of life. As GE used to say (do they still?), "Progress is our most important product." Worldview is a stabilizing force in cultural reproduction, and the intertia involved here will be hard to change..that is until, as several point out, now-privileged people are brought face to face with energy costs due to oil and natural gas depletion.
When the ramifications of peak oil actually begin to take a bite I fear that those feeling the bite first will be the biggest. Automobile manufacture and sales, automobile insurance, UPS, FedEx, airlines and so on will be able to get the ear of the politicians and be able to wrangle subsidies out of the politicians. Everyone (well, almost anyway) is denying the possibility of peak oil and I suspect that the onset of peak oil will not be much different. I can hear now any and every flyblown politician claiming that they have the answer and just vote me in and I'll get those SUV's rolling again.
So, with charlatans encouraging folks to believe what they want to believe - that things will continue on as they have for the last 70 years I can imagine congressfolks succumbing to the extended begging bowl held out by those saying just give me enough to tide me over this rough spot and I'll be able to keep folks employed, the wall-mart turnstiles turning and you in office.
I think that will be, as Michael Jackson says, "bad, bad, bad, really bad" .Because once these folks loot the treasury that's it. Them greenbacks will not be replaced. Money that could be spent on initiatives to address transitioning to a new ( actually, old) way of life will not be available.
We should be alert to this possibility and lay the groundwork to head it off now.