Hi Khebab,

Yes, I have taken into account Canadian tar sands, but I think that most forecasts are too optimistic.

Last year, I was optimistic about tar sands production but then I read your comprehensive story a few months ago when I was checking my forecast for tar sands. I also listened to David Hughes http://globalpublicmedia.com//interviews/823 who thought that tar sands production was limited to 2.5 mbd. The Hughes interview was done in 2006, prior to the possible cancellation of the MacKenzie Valley pipeline. His tar sands limit of 2.5 mbd may need to be revised downwards.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) just released their June 2007 forecast http://www.capp.ca/raw.asp?x=1&e=PDF&dt=NTV&dn=123361

Table 7.2, page 32 of CAPP’s forecast (moderate growth case) shows the following tar sands production numbers, mbd (actuals to 2006)

2004, 0.99
2005, 0.99
2006, 1.13
2007, 1.28
2008, 1.49
2009, 1.69
2010, 1.84
2011, 2.03
2012, 2.27

My annual average tar sands forecast numbers, included in the charts above, are lower.

2007, 1.27
2008, 1.36
2009, 1.45
2010, 1.55
2011, 1.65
2012, 1.70

These numbers show an annual growth rate of 7% until 2012, when a ceiling of 1.70 mbd is assumed, which is similar to your logistic curve and the CAPP 2005 (constrained case) from your chart below.

I cannot justify using a higher growth rate than 7%/yr for tar sands production because tar sands uses huge amounts of natural gas, water, infrastructure and produces lots of carbon dioxide/other pollutants. Environmental constraints may also become stronger. Woodland Cree First Nation is challenging Shells Oil Sands expansion from 12,500 bopd to 100,000 bopd.
http://www.marketwire.com/2.0/release.do?id=745361
Tar sands could also be starting to produce acid rain which is derived from sulphur and nitrogen oxides.
http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/journals/esthag-w/2006/aug/science/jp_acid...

It also appears that a huge source of natural gas is at risk, the $US16b MacKenzie Valley pipeline. However, the Canadian taxpayers might subsidise this pipeline so that tar sands oil can be exported to the US.
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/5110
The $US25b Alaska natural gas pipeline may also be at risk.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=397fb965-...
Delays in either or both of these pipelines could force gas prices up considerably, making tar sands oil more expensive to produce which could adversely impact the economic viability of new projects.

Even with increasing tar sands production, according to EIA production data, Canada’s total C&C production decreased slightly from the last quarter of 2006, 2.643 mbd to the first quarter of 2007 at 2.636 mbd. This probably means that Canada’s conventional C&C production is declining at 7%/yr to offset the tar sands increase of 7%/yr.