Yes I figured out that this latest plot has shortages starting this fall not just tight prices. We can only hope that KSA is holding back a little bit at least and will up production once oil crosses 100 a barrel. Also we effectively have a economic crisis scheduled for the late fall early winter. With Aces work this event becomes almost 100% certain. This should cause demand too back off some. So the first shock wave esp if KSA has any excess capacity will give us a small Indian summer.

So regardless of when the first shock from peak oil hits I see a bit of a breather before the next one. I'm guessing it will take three shocks before things start to crumble.

So using Aces work we have a shock sometime this fall.
If we have a hard winter a shock then if not we squeeze by.

This puts a much large shock next summer as we don't have a summer driving season but widespread shortages or very high prices. The fall of 2008 should be another breather period.
2009 is toast.

Now if Ace is too aggressive we get a weaker signal this fall
which is a unexpected price run up when prices should be falling I think a lot of people consider this very likely.
Late summer of 2008 would be shortages etc.

So Aces work moves everything up by 6-8 months. And if we sneak by without a hurricane this year I doubt we make it next year and certainly not for the three year initial crisis period 2007-2008-2009. We are going to have one sometime and in general the chances of a major above ground event making a bad situation horrible is close to 100%.

To some extent a strong hurricane this year causing major problems would be a good thing since it would give use a overly strong initial shock.

Personally the basic problem I have is the recent insanity of the housing market still has not blown off and its really hard to make a prudent buying decision in most markets.
And since you can figure even if prices reverted to the mean quickly the value of property will be very low for a looong time so your only buying it for a personal garden but your locked in forever in effect since you effectively cannot sell.

But waiting till land/houses is dirt cheap is pretty dangerous because it may be difficult to execute a move at that time and of course any fiat money based savings could get wiped out in the interim.

So I need to see a serious crash in prices in the RE market but things still stable enough and the currencies not trashed so I can make a move. Its going to be very very tight. I have a plan B but Ace is mucking up my A plan.