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253 comments on DrumBeat: June 20, 2007
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253 comments on DrumBeat: June 20, 2007
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Senate OKs plan to sue OPEC for price-fixing
...is there anything to add ? Now even the Senate has lost it !
My perception is that every country is responsible for their own actions - regarding all political actions taken - concerning whatever -
Its not the OPEC which forces the US to propell itsef on 1/4 of all fossile fuel in the world - or is it ? Where do I go wrong ...?
To ballance this (and to be rude and crude) its not US fault that the tortillas in Mexico are having extraordinary pricehikes - due to the bio-fuel stunts done in the US. That is shortsigthed political planning in Mexico - period.
Moral is : if you are having any problems - look around yourself to sort out your problem - dont blame your neighbour, or some folks 100000 miles a-bloody-way .......
It's kind of ironic. I thought they priced fixed at around $20.00 a barrel for nearly twenty years. :)
So sue them!:>)
Big oil has been in bed with OPEC since Moby Dick was a sardine. We can count on the current big oil administration to stop any suits against OPEC. Besides, its ok for governments to join cartels, just not individuals...unless you are seeking to be charged with the felony of 'running a continuing criminal enterprise.'...the RICO act.
According to Greg Palast's book, Armed Madhouse, there were two factions with designs on Iraqi oil: The neo cons wanted to sell off the oil to many producers in order to flood the market and bust OPEC, big oil stepped in and stopped the neo cons and demanded that Iraqi oil be placed under the Iraqi Oil Ministry because 'it is the only way an OPEC country can insure adherence to OPEC quotas.' Neo cons are dropping like flies around DC, big oil is getting its way, as usual. We can choose to believe, or not, the assertions by Palast but the events on the ground so far seem to back what he put forth in his book.
I hate to bicker, but Palast just doesn't know what he is talking about about. He is not a thorough journalist, and lacks integrity in his writing on this topic. To me he is a partisan political hack, he's just trying to rile up the Left--and he does a huge disservice to it with his conspiratorial thinking about Big Oil and da-big-bad neocons. He talks to Alex Jones, yet he contradictorily criticizes all the wacky PO conspiracy theorizing on the internet. If you don't like conspiracy theories Greg, then why do you mix them up with basic geology? He should have his facts straight on what peak oil is before he goes on about how "I know Lewis Lapham and since he comes from old money that started the oil industry and he's my friend I know everything there is to know about that stuff that flies me from NY to London and powers me around as I drive to and fro diligently investigating but forgetting to find out the truth.... yippee!" Instead of pursuing facts he wanders off in the direction of that familiar mental delirium that most Americans, or wishful thinkers, rush to when talk begins of oil depletion.
I don't trust a concept that comes out of Mr. Palast's head when it comes to the oil industry, it is that simple.
Palast is just another incorrect liberal who whines "aghghh they're gouging us, they're gouging us!" *whimper* *cry* *whimper* ... That's what capitalism is Greg, get used to it!
Someone call a senator or a member of the house! Surely the congress can do something... *sigh*
But -- It is a conspiracy. A geological conspiracy! The rocks are against us! The rocks are against us! ^_^
I was a big fan of Palast's work in other areas, until I read his stories on peak oil. When I applied the same error offsets to his political reporting, I was terribly disappointed.
Our world is a big monkey conspiracy! =]
See, these here monkeys create "entities" known as corporations. Time passes and the monkeys conspire to make money.
I purposefully left out Palast's comments on PO because I think he is wrong about PO. I also know Palast likes to stir the pot. That said, if you follow his scenario about the battle over Iraqi oil between the neo cons and big oil, the facts on the ground, so far, fit his scenario. That is the statement that I made in my original post. Because Palast is wrong about some subjects does not necessarily mean that he is wrong about all subjects. logic 101...or, for the logically impared 'even a blind hog finds an acorn on occasion.'
Perhaps you are right and Palast can find an acorn, but he couldn't find a truffle if his life depended on it!
Please advise when your new best seller concerning PO hits the stands, I dont want to miss it.
I would like to point out something I learned in economics.
Inelastic supply and inelastic demand make for very high price swings. As neither the consumer or the supplier has real control price goes all over the place.
Suppliers, once the oil is tapped, it is coming out. Standard oil knew this and used it to bankrupt many other oil companies.
Consumers, once you build up your life around oil, when it goes you are screwed.
This is what gave OPEC power, being able to control supply, and therefore prices very keenly. Hopefully now oil is more elastic than before. (even though i have seen articles saying its more inelastic.)
The conventional wisdom is that oil demand is highly inelastic, but I wonder to what extent that is really true. A huge amount of what we use oil for directly or indirectly really falls into what could be classified as discretionary rather than indiscretionary expenditures.
My guess is that most people SAY they cannot and will not cut back regardless of price, but if the price actually did go high enough, they would indeed cut back their consumption, albeit while complaining to high heaven.
For example, all that commuter mileage is supposedly inelastic demand. However, if prices got high enough, or rationing were imposed, people would start carpooling. They did it in WWII, they did it in the late 70s, so they would do it again -- if fuel prices were high enough to provide enough inventive to do so.
HI WNC,
Thanks for your comment, and let's hope there's some room to lower consumption (i.e., relatively painlessly).
re: "...what could be classified as discretionary rather than indiscretionary expenditures."
Q: Is it not the case, though, that we begin to see a problem when the providers of "discretionary" services/products (or, we might call these folks, "recipients of discretionary dollars") do not receive the income they "need" (ie., rely upon) for their livlihoods (i.e., necessities) - ? (question mark?)
That said, I like your suggestion of things people might do when the prices get high enough.
Q: Will this be enough to offset the loss?
Q: What about as the supply declines and the decline continues on...?
Q: Do you see any way to bring about these "elastic" changes now, in an effort to use the energy we have for preparing for future/alternative sources, or etc.?
Yes, there will be a lot of jobs that will be made redundant. That is why WT says in his ELP plan "Get thee to the non-discretionary side of the economy."
Supply and demand will adjust to each other to stay in equilibrium, albeit a constantly changing equilibrium. Shrinkage and elimination of the discretionary side of the economy will obviously be a big part of it. I suspect that our definition of discretionary and non-discretionary, luxury and essential will change with time.
See above. While some of our past experiences (Great Depression, WWII, 70s Energy Crisis) offer some useful lessons and templates, this time around things will be different. In the Great Depression, there was a 3 1/2 year economic collapse, and then the slow recovery; WWII lasted a few years and then was over; The energy crisis lasted a few years, and then the spigots were opened and oil prices plunged. This time, energy price increases will just keep going up and up and up for decade after decade, without relief. There are not many precedents for such a long term, unrelenting crisis.
Individuals can always make their own lifestyle choices. Anything society wide is going to have to take a massive government intervention. I'm not so pessimistic as to think that nothing will be done, but I am realistic enough to recognize that what is done will mostly be too little, too late, and sometimes not even the right thing.
Suppose the U.S. actually DOES sue OPEC for price-fixing.
What could/would the OPEC nations do about it?
1. Stop selling oil in dollars, switching to Euro/Yens or (for the ultimate dig), Rubles.
2. Sell their oil to some third world nation that would then re-market the oil as a "surplus" commodity on the spot market.
3. Sell U.S. bonds and other dollar denominated assets and drive U.S. interest rates up, resulting in a recession/depression.
4. Laugh all the way to the bank.
5. All of the above.
E. Swanson
More stellar legislation by our new improved Democratic led house. What a collection of pandering morons!
Yeah, I wish they would all smarten up and move to Kansas.
hi black-dog - you say
well for one -I've heard they (the US that is) will go after OPEC assets in the US.If that happens - anything from your proposals may kick in, and it will not be for the better of the US- thats for sure.
I think we need to add a 7th point to your list, and by chance the number 7 - is sort of magic in this regard ...
7) has God stopped blessing America?
God bless THE world
The discovery phase of the lawsuit would be interesting.
We went for a little driving holiday a few years back. While in a small town in Idaho we saw a sign on the local McDonald's:
God Bless America ... Please
It was kind of sad.
Imagine if you will---
The US, in a fit of megalomaniacal pique, does in fact sue and win. What happens then? We seize their assets in the US. Does anyone have any idea how much money the Saudis have in the markets? What would happen if they suddenly, pre-seizure, pulled out of the markets?
INSTANT FREAKING ECONOMIC MELTDOWN.
Cats and dogs sleeping with one another!!!
BIBLICAL!!!
6. Number four above by doing this: Put on a "lawsuit settlement payment surcharge" onto fuel exported to anybody who sues them. And then add in a "Saudi Aramco pre-nationalization compensation surcharge."
6. None of the above. Not one of the actions you list would be practical, effective or beneficial to the OPEC countries.
First, there doesn't seem to be any evidence at all that OPEC countries sell oil in dollars. It is clear that they price oil in dollars, but that is only a measurement. I have asked many times for evidence that Euro nations, say France, changes Euro into dollars then use those dollars to buy oil. I'm still waiting.
It is far more likely that France buys x barrels of oil and pays in Euros at the rate of x * oil price in dollars * dollar/Euro exchange rate. This is the way it is with every product in the world. You can only set a price in one currency, but can settle in whatever way is mutually agreed upon by both parties.
Sure, OPEC countries could sell US assets (bonds, etc.). Yes, this would hurt the US badly and cause the dollar to fall. It is the long term holdings of dollar assets, not the oil price that supports the value of the dollar.
But it is much more complex than that. First start with why OPEC countries hold these assets in the first place: because it is beneficial for them. So inherently any other use of their capital is a second best choice. If they sold dollar assets, they would have to buy an enormous amount of assets in Euros. Since the Euro market is less deep this would not be easy. Yen would be even harder and there are no where near enough assets available in other currencies, nor are they liquid enough.
The OPEC countries would also lose a fortune in transaction costs moving from one currency to another. Then the Euro would shoot up, making European exports expensive and damaging their economies. Also a huge number of investors would gladly sell expensive Euro assets and use those profits to buy now deflated US assets. The net results would be that OPEC countries lose money on the transactions, wind up with an unbalanced investment portfolio and destroy the economies of their customers.
Those that bought from them, sold to them or earned fees on the transactions would be very, very happy. Since I would be in that group, I wish your idea made sense. But it doesn't.
What sort of evidence are you waiting for? A bank statement?
If the petrodollar pricing was as simplistic as you imagine, there would be little incentive to go to war over a change to euro...
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Iraq/Iraq_dollar_vs_euro.html
http://www.feasta.org/documents/papers/oil1.htm
http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/17450
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Let me put this in perspective for you. Implicit in America's self-appointed role as "Leader of the Free World" is a belief in the righteousness of the "American Way of Life" and the need for the rest of the world to play by "the rules" -- rules that, of course, we decide upon. The underlying message is that if everyone would play by our rules, the planet would become one big, blissful humming capitalist machine with everyone having more than enough to fill their tummies and their gas tanks.
Of course, the truth is that there isn't enough plunder on the planet for 6+ billion souls to live like the average American lives. But to admit that to ourselves would be to admit that America's trumpeting of "free trade" and "democracy" were just cover-ups for our need to gain access to other people's resources. After all, what in our history would indicate that we were that kind of people?
So, what do we do? We sue OPEC; because it's easier to convince ourselves that it's the anti-competitive practices of those crummy ragheads -- not the West's relentless procurement of other peoples resources at fire-sale prices -- that is depriving the majority of the planet a standard of living that would match ours.
This comment by PeakOil Tarzan should be broadcast on every TV station, printed in every newspaper and magazine and taught verbatim to every school child in the western world. It is a perfect summation of the situation.
(Maybe the word "ragheads" needs toning down somewhat athough I appreciate it was used in irony)
I agree, its a very good and timely comment, but there are too much wax in the ears of them MSM-executives and too much noize from the gas-guzzlers they drive - for the message to be filtered out from the white-noize -
---
Actually it is their JOB to Ensure that the message DOESN'T get to Joe Average.
That's why they have spent the last 30 years consolidating control over ALL MSM outlets. (Also why they hate the Internet and counting it's days until control).
The Message WILL BE CONTROLLED.
Look how the PO message is getting out. Over the last 4 years it has been coming out in a very controlled manner.
Holding off enlightenment untill the end game is nailed down.
Almost there.
Here's a good thing to keep in front of you when thinking on how information and news is handled.
25 Rules of Disinformation: How to Fight Back
and
8 Traits of The Disinformationalist:
What to Look For
http://www.proparanoid.net/truth.htm
JC
I believe that Darth Cheney summed it up in one sentence...'The American way of life is not negotiable.'
Once the great silent majority figures out that they were not meant to be cut into the profit, all these "neo's" are going to have the surprise of a lifetime, and it isn't going to be pretty.
bush and his family with be in pereagua(spelling?) in that ranch of theirs that they bought before that happens.
Some American behaviours, like those of the aforementioned senators, remind me of the following quote from the little kid in 1999's movie The Sixth Sense.
"Walking around like regular people... They only see what they want to see. They don't know they're dead"
That's kind of true for everyone, though.
Happy birthday, 'cognitive dissonance'
True, but when we mistakes its with our dime. When the politicians and staffers you named make a mistake, its with our dime. What is wrong with this picture?
Actually didn't you know, John Stossel knows far more about economics, history and world geopolitcs than Bill Gates?
Stossel smarter than Gates? Give me a break...
... for the convenience of TV, you can only be one of two kinds of human beings, either a liberal or a conservative. -- Kurt Vonnegut
What you are pointing out is called 'the Carter doctrine' and has been US policy since FDR visited the royalty of SA after WW2. Carter simply said (paraphrase) that any action by any foreign government that would interfere with oil supplies from the mid east reaching America would be considered aggression against the US. The earlier FDR agreement between SA and the US was an agreement that SA would only accept USDs in exchange for their oil and in return we would guarantee their sovereignty from without and within. After WW2 the Brits were still the protectors of the mid east oil untill 1968 when they could no longer get it done. Then it was turn for our watch to begin. Nothing changed much untill the current idealogues decided to change Americas foreign policy from one of containment and balancing of powers in the mid east to one of 'democratizing Iraq and in succession other axis of evil states in the mid east.' That decision set down in a document called the 'project for a new American century' has led to the situation as it exists in the mid east today.
I wonder what Robert Hirsch is thinking right now. I'd say that TPTB are going to generate as much smoke and mirror as they can. I think this is a political stunt to appear to be appeasing the nations suffering at the pump.
Those dish-dashed millionaires will be silently chuckling under their beards at this one.
Marco.
Hirsch is probably thinking that the U.S. post-peak coal stampede is now officially underway with efforts to provide massive tax breaks to the coal industry at the expense of big oil.
I actually have nothing against coal as long as 1) the land is regenerated afterwards and 2)Carbon sequestration takes place; but caveat no2 really eats into the EROEI.
After seeing the recent staggering article about China building 2 new coal fires power stations each week I can't se many other developed majors making any concessions on CO2 emmsions.
I think there will be tax breaks to both at the expense of social welfare.
Marco.
In what court would this suit be tried? What force would have the jurisdiction to enforce the verdict?
This is just as much about testing demonstrating the authority of american courts (and undermining the authority of the world court) as about oil prices.
If the result is only that OPEC assets in the U.S. are confiscated, while OPEC can still charge world prices and invest petro$ elsewhere, that will be the end of exports to the U.S. and even politicians understand this.
half full
- it will be tried in one of them new courts i Disney-Land where Donald D. Bush will judge alongside Micky M Cheney and Daisyleesa Rice - and the verdict ?
Welcome to the graceful court of looneytown - the place where justice is served - so help me ....
:)
Well, they learned exceptionalism from their masters well, now they are trying to sell it the best way they know how.
Sorry, I can't wait the millions of years for the senators who voted for this bill to become crude oil themselves.
history shows again and again how nature points out the folly of men
Trading partners argue, fight, sue, and even have trade wars all the time. The world doesn't end.
i wonder if the senate has the same legal advisor as the white house - howdy doody (alberto gonzalas)