One has to wonder with oil so critical to industrialized nations, both west and east, at what point will one,some, many of those industrialized nations decide that genocide is justified to access that oil. I.e., at what point will/would an effort be made to wipe out the local population entirely in order to get reliable access to the oil?
It might sound crazy and mad now, but when oil gets in really short supply my guess is that the gloves will really come off. And not just in Nigeria, but in every country where there is a part of the local population that causes too much trouble in getting the oil flowing.
Our species has a history of somethmes wiping out every man, woman and child going back a few thousand years. I seriously doubt that we have changed all that much.
I am not advocating this course of action, just commenting on human nature and what we might expect to see when the real oil crunch starts to take effect.