I think this is right. The middle class of the western industrialized world might well be one group that is priced out of oil consumption. I was thinking more of the developing world and the misery already being caused by high global oil prices.

I agree that population growth and global per capita energy consumption is a useful way to look at future demand, with the caveat that global per capita energy consumption would change significantly if for example 300 million Americans suddenly became 50% more energy efficient. One consequence of sustained high oil prices will almost certainly be greater energy conservation and investment in energy efficient technologies among the richer nations.

Anyway, it's important to understand that the drive to energy efficiency and conservation caused by high prices will obscure peak oil for years, even if those high prices are caused by peak oil. Most of the potential/foreseeable effects of peak oil will obscure it in the short term, including a global recession, a massive effort to improve the energy efficiency of the industrialized world, continued trend toward nationalization of oil resources and "resource nationalism" among the major producers, etc.

I also recognize that there are other potential mechanisms besides price for the allocation of scarce resources. Thinking outside the box, an extreme form of future resource nationalism might be an oil producer suddenly deciding not to export any more oil. It doesn't seem likely, but you can imagine a revolution based on the idea that oil is too important a strategic resource to export.