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Thanks Prof. Rutledge for this excellent article. Here are the remarkable conclusions I draw:
1. Coal reserves are far less than thought.
2. Coal is going to run out more-or-less alongside petroleum/NG.
3. While "there will always be oil, it will just get more expensive", for practical purposes (such as running an advanced industrial civilization) fossil fuels will disappear.
4. We can argue timing, but essentially oil, coal, NG are gone 100 years from now +/- 50 years.
5. Fossil fuel contribution to future CO2 in IPCC models is quite on the high side. The IPCC models need to be redone with better estimates of available fossil fuels -- and run for well beyond 2100 to see the full temp effect.
6. If we only slow the rate of fossil fuel use (the Super Kyoto plan), the temp rise still occurs, just a few years later (its an integral!).
7. The only real way to prevent CO2 release is sequestration or better yet keep the fossil fuels in the ground (good luck with that!).
8. Absent some crash programs for renewables (or temporary reprieve via unconventional fossil fuels), civilization must get by on a small fraction of the energy it now uses (and in far less convenient forms).
Personally I draw the additional conclusion that
9. Global warming / climate change could be a red herring, causing us to focus on the wrong problem (see #6 above).
Looked at in the right way however, global warming and peak oil should both lead to the same conclusion, ie. #8 above.
A modeling question: Can this prospective data set for fossil fuel production be profitably used to improve the World3 model of the Limits To Growth book? They explain in their book that they stay away from detailed modeling of any one area, to avoid "false levels of detail". However, if we are getting a better idea of future energy production, perhaps those models and scenarios can be improved?
Hi Relocalize,
I should have asked you to write the conclusions. You did a great job, better than I did.
Dave
Thanks for your post, very enlightening.
I notice however that your conclusions are quite conservative. Your estimate of ultimate recoverable production ends up being about half of the official reserve figures. Yet you indicate that real-world production turns out to be 15-30% of estimated reserves in many regions.
So you could be overstating the amount of remaining recoverable coal by 100%.
And the actual possible contribution of remaining coal reserves to global warming could be less than half a degree?
If we are to believe in things we cannot see or touch, how do we tell the true belief from the false belief?
It has occurred to me recently:
Back when the coal beds were laid down the world was 5-6 degrees warmer, and CO2 levels were 1500-2000ppm. If we were to burn every scrap of hydrocarbons ever produced, we would expect the temperature to return to previous levels - about 6 degrees warmer.
Any talk of a runaway greenhouse effect is absolute rubbish, because we know it didn't happen even with CO2 levels 5 times higher than today. It can't happen, even if we burn all the fossil fuels, because we can't get to a higher level of CO2 than originally existed when the fossil fuels were created.
But can we burn all the fossil fuels? Of course not. We can't even expect to find them all. What about the coal that's buried 10km down? The coal under the sea bed offshore? The crappy coal mixed in with layers of other rock hidden under a kilometre of overburden? The coal with low energy content that isn't worth mining?
I'd be suprised if we ever managed to find and burn 30% of the worlds fossil fuels.
So a 2 degree temperature rise is believable - but where would the carbon come from for anything greater?
If we are to believe in things we cannot see or touch, how do we tell the true belief from the false belief?
Except that anthropogenic climate forcing is more than just the CO2 emissions from releasing previously locked-up carbon. Human industry and even agricultural practices have significantly rearranged the chemistry of above-ground minerals and chemicals, so that atoms that were previously bound up in harmless arrangements are now rearranged to form gases that have unnaturally high greenhouse trapping capabilities. Cutting down forests has reduced the planet's CO2 absorption capacity, and other land use changes have had a net forcing effect on climate.
From memory the IPCC report concluded that burning fossil fuels was only responsible for about half of anthropogenic climate forcing, presumably meaning (extending your logic) that if we did manage to burn them all, AND continue our other practices, we could be looking at 12 degrees warming in total. Obviously that's not going to happen, but if it did, it's too hard to say for sure that it couldn't somehow trigger a runaway greenhouse effect. And I would think a runaway greenhouse effect could in principle be triggered by more than just a simple temperate-tipping point - it could also be caused by an excessively quick rise in temperature. Further, with or without mankind's activities, the biosphere's composition now compared to 200 million years ago is significantly different - for all we know, it may be capable of absorbing far less CO2.
So forget about fossil fuels. They've not the problem.
Stop burning down the bloody forests
If we are to believe in things we cannot see or touch, how do we tell the true belief from the false belief?
We intelligent ones have created fluorocarbons, a GHG that never existed before. We should get back to 1960 levels by 2400 or so since we are phasing them out.
We can create a "methane burp" that does more GW than CO2. Methane is short-lived (less than a decade half-life), so things should cool down a generation after the methane burp.
You may be right VERY long term, in geological time frames. But even a century is a LONG time for civilization and me personally.
Best Hopes for minimal GW,
Alan
When the CO2 was 2% of the air, the sun was a little less bright compared to now. That would mean that a higher amount of CO2 compared to now would have to be in the air to make the temp the same as now. If we burnt all the fossil fuel, the 2% CO2 would make for air that'll cause us (and animals) to breathe more heavily as CO2 builds up in blood. I'd invest in oxygen bar equipment companies in that case as people would want relief from the emphysema-like breathing symptom.
Worse, even without global warming, a "creamy nougat" of oil would cause "peak air" and our own suffocation! An atmosphere of 15% oxygen and 5% CO2 would be extremely unhealthy. You do NOT want a "creamy nougat" of oil!
We must get over our addiction to fossil fuel, one way or another. Start building the solar and wind power plants!
Petrol prices high enough yet? Just wait!
DaveR, I'm glad I understood the article to some extent. It really does seem like big news to me if this can be verified by other researchers... That we essentially won't have coal to rely on to pull us through beyond where the oil would be truly "running out" in 100 years or so.... That all the focus on reducing GHG for GW/CC may be completely wasted effort...
Is this any way to run a civilization? Shouldn't this be at the top of everyone's agenda in government and industry? And if the early effects do come as soon as some here are predicting.... yikes! I continue to be amazed and dismayed that these ideas are so hard to discuss with people. People I know just don't want to think about it.
It just seems so clear to me that the only responsible, moral position is to look on the remaining fossil fuels as a gift to be passed on to our children; that the only responsible way to use fossil fuels today is to build renewable infrastructure that can last for 100's of years. The Romans built amazing aqueducts that still stand.
The permaculture folks have as one of their ethical principles something they call "transitional ethics". It basically means that it's OK to use limited fossil fuels today to create some permanent infrastructure for tomorrow. The classic example is a bulldozer creating a swale to catch rainwater.
(Of course my personal lifestyle doesn't match up with the fine words above.)
The Swiss are digging a series of three tunnels (56 km, 20 km and 15 km from memory) to create a flat straight railroad between Zurich and Milan under the Swiss Alps. When finished, pax will travel at 240 kph, specialty freight at 160 kph and regular freight at 100 or so kph on (hydro) electricity.
Railbed and tracks are designed to last 100 years before major refurbishment. The tunnels themselves will last "as long as humanly possible" with no shortcuts.
Much of the power to drill these tunnels is electricity (1/2 hydro, 1/2 nuclear in Switzerland, except the railroads which are 100% hydro) but also substantial fossil fuels..
The Swiss plan to eliminate trucks over the Alps via taxation and provide this route and another (Bern-Milan with a new 20+ km tunnel) as alternatives.
Massive 20 or so year project !
Best Hopes for Long Lived Infrastructure,
Alan
Next door neighbor owns and lives in 3 story brick 1850s-1870s apartment (5 units). He is a contractor and is doing a variety of repairs and improvements before condoizing the building. He was repairing porch (a 1900 add-on he thinks). Poor quality job that needs replacing after just 100 or so years ! He will do it RIGHT ! this time ! Not at all like the workmanship elsewhere in the building.
A very cool idea. If you look at the way LTG models resources and the shape of the EROI curve, they are very similar.
There are two interactions. One is that the energy supply gets lower (peak and EROI reduction) but the second is that ore bodies get more dilute and require more energy to get the same amount of ore. Where these two curves cross over = peak industry. So we would need the ore body side. But it might be enough to assume constrained ore resource and just model energy. You can order the model on a CD from amazon.com
Jon Freise
Analyze Not Fantasize -D. Meadows