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Hey, I'm a student of Hume, and a basic prerequisite of his beliefs is that reality bites - it is just that underlying part which is so hard to actually be certain of, logically. The future is always, by definition, unknown. Welcome to reality.
Unless the core of the earth is actually made of oil, the peak will arrive with a range of predictable results -- even though the exact trajectory can not be predicted. And of course, it is really irrelevant whether there is, in fact, a reality or a future -- with our human limitations we simply have to act as though there is such a thing, and that it matters.
The Disneyfication of American thought-- which has metastasized to the entire world -- replaces a necessary belief, however illogical, in reality with a mirage which serves to augment the fortunes of those who do believe in objective reality
Huh?!?
I think you stumbled across a philosophical discussion, involving Hume, et al.
I subscribe to the philosophy of Dezcarties, who famously said, "I'm pink, therefore I'm spam".
Or something like that.
:-)
I comment on The Oil Drum, therefore I exist.
Yes, that was it ;-)
Commento, ergo sum
I'm a radical neo-cartesian and refuse to create any conclusions: I think. Therefore, I think.
There's a shorter name for that: Zen.
Or some might say, "bleedin' obvious"... but it is a surprisingly powerful concept that many people have forgotten about ;-)
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Actually, I was quite puzzled why someone would conclude a follower of Hume to be a PO denier. It is a cornucopian who would be more likely to be anti-Hume philosophically. For instance, one of Hume’s most significant findings is that inductive reasoning is invalid. No matter how often something occurs I cannot conclude it will always occur. I can only say something is statistically probable - more likely than not. Just because the sun comes up every day does not logically prove it will tomorrow. Sound familiar? The cornucopian believes since we have always had enough oil, and technology has always found it, it always will. The previous commenter has concluded (I’m sorry if I did not understand his argument) that someone who follows Hume cannot conclude anything about anything, when in fact it is healthy skepticism tempered with experience. I strongly suspect the writer has never read his treatises. His treatise on morals is particularly good. I may not be able to logically prove gravity exists, but I’m not about to jump out a 20 story window because gravity’s proof is invalid.
Proof of this resides in how the MSM manipulates "reality" and leads an ignorant public by the nose, an ongoing situation for decades now. Experience shows that same public is still capable of learning what "reality" consists of, but at great expense to one's psyche.
Anybody here remember what the "reality" is/was behind the rock-opera Tommy? The Who had the whole "thing" figured out 40 years ago. But how many were able to be set free?
Something can't be proven by reference to a theory or personal opinion.
Both Hume and Popper showed that nothing at all can be proved, it only be disproved.
Given that, one has to work on probabilities. The probability of Peak Oil having already occurred can be guessed or estimated (you pick) at about 50%, of it occurring before (say) 2011 must be about 80%.
I agree with all of your points. Despite common sentiment at TOD, we can only view the future in terms of probability. No one knows what WILL happen in the future.
Hoever none of that refutes my point that Karlov's theory that the media is manipulating everything doesn't go very far towards proving peak oil.
Precisely! And because the probability of peak oil appears anywhere from possible to probable (rather than almost impossible), the responsible action is to perform risk management against this event.
Now, do you see our government performing risk management against this event? Do you see most corporations performing risk management against this event? That is the crux of the problem facing civilization and we are at this crux because of a false global religion (politicized economics) that promises infinite growth.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett