thanks for the post Jerome.

trans:

If Iraqi oil production doesn't increase exponentially from today to 2015,

/we have a major problem
/a serious problem ...
/etc.

We'll be in deep doo-doo in any case. While Iraq may be the last largely untapped reserve aboard this planet, it can only plateau the peak. Sooner or later we all must deal with the slow but maddening decline. After all, demand is ridiculously inelastic. Demand only drops due to demand destruction. Since Africa is notorious for poverty, demand destruction will occur there first. But it's not just Africa. Consider the case of Iran, of all places.

As we type, Iran became the first country to invoke gasoline rationing. Iranians decide to suddenly torch gas stations in protest, which only makes matters all the worse. Talk about poetic justice. What better place to have to invoke gas rationing. All we need to do is shut the gasoline valve the rest of the way to bring Mahkmoud Ahmadinejad to his knees. And be sure to take a monkey wrench to the valve handle to shut it tight. Then, we just sit back and watch the Iranians do our dirty work for us.

All the better, Europe will have plenty of incentive to shut that valve on Iran. Officials of the EU need to get re-elected so anything they do to slow the inevitable rise in petrol prices will get them a constituency. So, shutting the valve on Iran means more petrol for Europe.

That'll leave our friend Mahkmoud a rough choice. Either build refineries OR continue trying to build a nuclear bomb. But he cannot have both. He had better choose wisely. The power over Iran is in the hands of the EU officials. They can shut that valve or leave it partially open. The EU can effectively say "Either you cut out your nuke programme or we finish shutting the valve". Welcome to the post-peak world!

Petrol prices high enough yet? Just wait!