Rickover was quite a vissionary genius. Only error in his predictions were being overly optimistic about our population and energy use situation. He predicted 4 billion people on earth in 2000, but it ended up as 6 billion.

His depicting the energy resource holder countries as ones with power over those without is absolutely correct. The OPEC countries along with a few other energy suppliers (Russia, Kazakstan, Canada) will have economic advantage over the US, Japan, and most of Europe. Most of these energy suppliers/resource holders are also beginning to conserve their enrergy reserves as money in the bank, just like Rickover predicted 50 years ago. Too bad the powers to be can't even see these energy/power trends when the facts are soo obvious.

US is in the beginning of a long slow decline that it will never fully pull out of. We have lived the in the golden age and our gold is mostly gone. Only reason we haven't started declining faster is use of debt, both government and personal. Alternative & renewable energy sources are available, but the cost will be very high and result in lower standard of living and eventually lower life expectancy, putting both much closer to the world average.

Mb: Awesome visionary, but I guess no one could have imagined the growth in effective power of the global elite over the next 50 years. When Rickover gave this speech in 1957, even the super-rich in the USA were to a certain extent submissive to the supreme power on the planet, the USA government-thus Rickover envisioned a future where steps would be taken to protect that power. Now the facade remains, but the vultures have picked away most of the muscle.

One could of course choose a new course, and attempt to save the Empire from itself! Somehow one needs to inject or recruit 'new blood' into the very heart of socio/economic/political power in the United States, and reinvigorate the whole project by fundamental structural reform. One way would be to reorientate the economy away from militarism towards something else. The American economy should become a 'peactime' economy once more, and reverse the policies of the last fifty years, which are leading towards disaster going forward. Simply put, this means breaking the power of the military/industrial complex and diverting resources towards domestic, civilian needs rather than the idea of Empire.

Writerman: IMHO, as the USA integrates more tightly with Mexico it is not going to be easy to reinvent the place as a larger version of Germany, France or Sweden.

Mexico has never had a foreign war except the French invasion and the US invasions in 1845, 1915 (Pershing chasing Pancho Villa) and 1920? when the Marines occupied Vera Cruz to help steal oil. Its a fairly peaceable place with pretty girls and great beaches and mountains.

Oilman: The real estate is great- the life of the average Mexican isn't. Fantastic place if you are one of the top dogs (thus the push for US-Mexico integration).

The changes needed are not just political.

Admiral Rickover stressed the need for better education to meet the needs of a country where energy scarcity threatened its standard of living. Today we need more students interested in science and engineering and less in finance and law. The US schools still graduate far too many lawyers and not enough engineers. And increasing numbers of IT degree graduates won't help either - more people manipulating bits and inventing "iphones" won't save us.

Mb: Hate to be redundant, but in 1957 the USA had an "us" mentality. Those days are long gone-you are on your own (just like in Mexico)-sink or swim.

Yes, Moore's theme for SiCKO. The video is really about "we" vs "me" thinking. The health insurance industry is only one example. The U.S. as a nation cannot survive this transition. The nation will be in the way, a constant obstacle, both internationally and locally.

cfm in Gray, ME

Energy schemes like "Sustainability" would be a good foundation for such a re-tooling.

Of course, if the USA cedes its military position in the world, a host of other interests will move into the vacuum.  This will mean instability at best, most likely a number of hot wars.

mbnewtrain-

Only reason we haven't started declining faster is use of debt, both government and personal.

It is hard to see how debt can expand much longer. Once people become aware of peak oil, it is hard to justify making a loan that is to be paid back 10 or 20 years in the future, since conditions are likely to be much worse in the future. The fact that our monetary system is so tied to debt is a real issue in my mind.

This is a link to a recent 47 minute video about our debt-based monetary system.

http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279&q=%22money+a...

Consumption debt can not expand forever counted in inflation adjusted money. But it will be worthwile to invest in services and businesses that satisfies demand in a post peak oil world. Its easy to put togeather a list of such investments, small and large. Some parts of the economy will continue to grow when others shrink.

However, consumer debt in nominal (not corrected for inflation) terms can expand to indefinitely large levels as inflation goes from single to double to triple digits . . . and then up through hyperinflation as happened in Germany in 1923.

Hm, Germany in 1923, a debt burdened country, a country that had lost an expensive war, a country of disillusioned youth and frightened pensioners, a country of extremists on the left and right, a country plagued by racism, a country prone to blame foreigners for its problems, a country where democracy was not working to solve social and economic problems . . .. Hm, now what does that country remind me of? ? ?

France?

However, the Nazis rode to power on deflation - an interesting overview at http://www.sehepunkte.de/2004/03/2066

Basically, an overproud proud nation, having lost a war and having its economic institutions decimated by payments to external sources with nothing but short-term interests in transferring wealth to themselves, started to see a light at the end of the tunnel - which turned out to be the headlight of the Great Depression.

From the article -
'If Germany was to honour its obligations under the existing gold standard system, Germany simply had no option but to engage in a brutal programme of deflation to turn around its balance of payments. To describe the deflation policy as Bruening's is to underestimate the external pressures acting on any German government after 1929. At the same time it provides a highly misleading characterization of the economic policy preferences of Bruening, who, as Ritschl makes clear, began his period in office in the summer of 1930 struggling to mobilize foreign funds with which to combat unemployment and ended his period in office, preparing for a work-creation programme much like that actually put in place at the end of 1932. The common view of Bruening's policy as a trade-off between the domestic economy and the objective of eliminating reparations is reductive. Bruening's real problem was a three-way trade-off between the desire to throw off reparations, the desire to prevent a domestic economic disaster and the desire to preserve Germany's long-term economic relations with the United States, the world's largest economic power. The desire to preserve creditworthiness in the largest capital market in the world was what prevented Bruening from adopting the ultra-nationalist programme of a unilateral default on Germany's foreign obligations. Interestingly, Ritschl also highlights American pressure as the chief reason why Germany did not follow Britain in devaluing the Reichsmark in the autumn of 1931. The Federal Reserve and the Hoover administration had expressed a strong preference that Germany should not devalue and should instead continue to honour its long-term foreign debt, whilst using capital controls to protect its balance of payments. Given the outstanding size of debts to the United States and the importance of US pressure to a final resolution of the reparations question, Germany could not afford to go against this American "advice".'