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111 comments on Back-to-the-Future Look at Oil Prices--Will Higher Prices Bring More Supplies?

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kenny on July 10, 2007 - 12:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

First, Glenn, thank you for this insightful look at production, prices and resource depletion. This kind of information is vital.

Don Sailorman makes an important point about economics as the study of scarcity. Economists study finite resource depletion too - we've discussed hotelling theory and intertemporal substitution a bit here.

Re GreyZone and Glenn's references to Limits to Growth, the nonrenewable resource sector of the world3 model seems incredibly prescient now as an explanation of how increasing population-based demand intersects with the the law of diminishing returns as a nonrenewable resource depletes.

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seismobob on July 10, 2007 - 9:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/Oilcrisis.htm

Thank you Kenny, A couple of comments to one and all, I was relating a story of my lunch with Tom Neal, who later became President (or was it CEO?) of CNG. Back then, people were saying that commodities remained flat in inflated terms. And, the examples I showed of bricks, suet, etc, verified that observation over a 600 year period. I don't know how to say that that concept is wrong (for renewables) given a 600 year history of flatness.

But, that being said, I wouldn't want to over-generalize economists as all being in group think, that is clearly not the case. But I do think of Michael Lynch, with whom I have debated in private and on a semi-private email list. He thinks that all one needs to do is have the oil prices rise and and oil will veritably flow from them pore spaces.

The problem the Club of Rome faced was that they were too early, the press got it all wrong, and that then discredited them in the eyes of policy makers.

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Robert Rapier on July 11, 2007 - 6:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Good to see you here Glenn. I hope you make future contributions.

FYI, Glenn and I go back a ways. We have had peak oil discussions going back several years now. We are also both from small Oklahoma towns, both work in the oil industry, and were both raised as Creationists before shunning that belief as adults. So, we have found ourselves running in similar circles for a long time.

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seismobob on July 11, 2007 - 7:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Now you let it out of the bag. My mother didn't know I was one of those evil oilmen. She thought I played piano in a house with red lights

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/Oilcrisis.htm

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Robert Rapier on July 11, 2007 - 2:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

My mother didn't know I was one of those evil oilmen. She thought I played piano in a house with red lights

You must have read that book. Check out #9 this year from my reading list:

http://r2books.blogspot.com/

Very funny at times, but also very sobering at times.

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seismobob on July 11, 2007 - 8:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hadn't read the book, but heard that saying for my entire career in this business. I have been on enough rigs to know that my life expectancy, should I chose to work there would be about 10 minutes. Those places are dangerous--and I did have one very, very embarassing accident on a rig--luckily, I think I have squelched the story and no one knows anymore

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/Oilcrisis.htm

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mr f on July 11, 2007 - 8:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There are so many "scientists" who seem not to be able to shed Creationism who are brought up with it, or oddly enough, convert to it once they "see the light"--they do the inverse of what you two did! *blink* *blink* I am amazed that someone could actually get a biology degree and become a creationist. I would think the most demented logic would break down at some point, but it seems to hold water, per se.

I'm happy you guys made it out to to the non-provincial way of viewing the world! And here's to many more who shun childish beliefs once held, for we can only hope--since we can't convince. Discussing peak oil may be difficult, but trying to take away peoples fairy tales about existence is nearly impossible.

I'm surprised there isn't some "former Creationists against Creationism" organization... There must be one, right? I probably just don't know about it.

Michael Behe published his new book recently... What makes these people tick? I just don't understand it, at that level... Still, I guess sometimes the well educated classes can be the most dense, in many respects.

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Robert Rapier on July 11, 2007 - 3:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There are so many "scientists" who seem not to be able to shed Creationism who are brought up with it, or oddly enough, convert to it once they "see the light"--they do the inverse of what you two did!

I have seen polls suggesting that only about 1 in 1000 biologists are actually Creationists. It's just that they are very vocal, and are trotted out at every opportunity.

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111 comments on Back-to-the-Future Look at Oil Prices--Will Higher Prices Bring More Supplies?

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