I'm curious Gail.

1) How many of your colleagues know you are 'into' peak oil?

2) Do you intro them to this stuff and if so what do they make of it?

3) Are they believers or do they think you are a fruitcake?!!:-(

The reason for my questions is that if I try to introduce the topic I get the blanked over looks and/or head in sand and/or shut up treatment!! This reaction is not proportional to IQ either!!
Cheers,

Marco.

They generally know I am into this, and I am sure some think I am somewhat crazy (but are too polite to say so). Most seem to "wall it off" from the rest of their life.

I have had two articles published in insurance periodicals. One was Oil Shortages: The Next Katrina?. It was published in May of 2006 in Emphasis magazine. Emphasis is a "free" company magazine that is sent to a large number of insurance executives around the world. In order to write the article, I had to convince a whole host of people who had never heard of peak oil (including the head of our division of the company) that peak oil was enough of a threat that I should write about it.

The other article I had published was Our Finite World: Implications for Actuaries?. This was the lead article in the May/June 2007 issue of Contingencies magazine. Contingencies magazine is published by the American Academy of Actuaries. The American Academy of Actuaries is the umbrella organization in the US that includes all types of actuaries - life, health, and pensions. The magazine is sent to all actuaries - the cost is included in their annual dues to the organization.

I have received a lot of nice comments on the Contingencies article. There has been some interest by an "Actuaries of the Future" group in actually talking about peak oil issues at a meeting.

Marco, Gail,

I ran into two sets of people when I used to mention "peak oil," the VERY FEW who were interested & the majority that developed glazed over eyes.

Now, I don't mention it that often.

I used to organize discussions and such with environmental groups and chatted about PO with engineering and electrical tinkerers like myself. Even among these people whom you might think would be interested in the subject, you get glazed eyes for the most part.

Among most other people, you here "Well, they've been saying oil is running out for along time and it hasn't happened," which is usually rhetorical and intended to end the discussion. If discussing the problems with ethanol, oil sands, etc, I was always berated for being so negative. Why am I so down on everything?

Now, I don't mention it that often either.

Gail,
I like your use of the phrase, "wall it off", as in compartmentalizing one's life; building a mental fortress and continuing life within it.

That's different than the concept of "Their eyes glazed over."

I personally fit into the "walled off" category. I am aware of Peak Oil. Yet I live most of my life "walled off" from it. I dare not mention it to co-workers lest they think me crazy and kick me out of my job. I generally do not bring up the topic in social circles because the ROI is usually a 99% chance of being shunned by the social group because you dared bring up an inconvenient and unpleasant topic. It's sort of like talking about a festering skin wound at the dinner table. Most people simply don't want to hear of it.

As for the very first part of your intro:

1. What is peak oil?

"Peak oil" is the term used to describe the situation when the amount of oil that can be extracted from the earth in a given year begins to decline because geological limitations are reached. Extracting oil becomes more and more difficult, so that costs escalate and the amount of oil produced begins to decline. The term peak oil is generally used to describe a decline in worldwide production, but a similar phenomenon exists for individual countries and other smaller areas.

I would suggest staying away from talking about the "amount" of oil. I know that what you say is true. Nonetheless it creates a bad frame and opens you up instantly for the "reserves" refrain. How about something like this:

1. What is peak oil?

Most people assume that our advanced economy can "supply" whatever goods are demanded in whatever quantity demanded simply because supply usually rises to meet demand.

If people want to buy the latest cellular telephone (say the Apple iPhone(TM)) then "poof" it seems like the marketplace almost overnight magically delivers the demanded quantity of cell phones at conveniently located outlets.

If folk want to acquire the latest high definition (HD) flat panel TV, then "wallah" it seems like the marketplace almost instantaneously delivers to us the quantity we demanded at almost affordable prices.

But what if the marketplace could not deliver? And what if the good involved was not a luxury toy but rather a necessity for life as we know it?

"Peak oil" is the term used to describe several complex issues all at once. First and foremost it tries to highlight the importance of crude oil to our very way of life. Second it indicates that the market cannot put a gun to Mother Earth's head and force her to year after year exgorge ever increasing quantities of a dwindling nonrenewable. In fact the physical reality is opposite to what our common sense would tell us. On a year-after-year basis, oil fields all over the world invariably fall into a pattern of giving up less and less oil and no new mega-fields have been found in the last 40 years. That spells trouble. Big serious trouble.

The VERY FEW deserve to know the truth. I can live with everyone else thinking I'm crazy.

Hi Marco, have a look at this wee video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME

You'll be Post Peak Man while their eating dust... ;o)

I expect a good majority of people that visit TOD experience this. After all, 99% of people have never heard of PO and if you extrapolate the worst effects of decline you quickly get into apocolyptic global scenarios that people just don't want to believe will happen. Personally I have 'another half' who I have stopped trying to convince.

As PO related effects start to impact peoples lives in a real way the idea itself will at some point 'cross the chasm' in marketing speak -just as Global Warming has done in recent years- but don't hold your breath. Just about every excuse in the book is likely to be rolled out before 'the big one' is recognised.

Has anyone got any good links to what happened back in the 70s and how people reacted/coped?

Regards, Nick.