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314 comments on DrumBeat: July 9, 2007

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BrianT on July 9, 2007 - 9:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Pond: What I thought was most interesting was their prediction of global biofuel at 1.75 Mbpd in 2012 (double current). At this measly level supposedly there are "economic" constraints. Score another one for the doomers.

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garyp on July 9, 2007 - 10:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Its a pity the full report is hidden behind the paywall for the next two weeks. I would like to pull apart some of these total numbers and see what they really say. The biofuels one effectively says "forget about it, even at best it won't count". Plus non-OPEC is declining. Plus much of OPEC is stationary. What was that phrase about eggs and baskets? Looks like Aramco is it for plans A, B, and C.

I also note that traders "are blaming IEA for scaremongering". IEA, who's motto is "always look on the bright side of life"? Someone has their fingers in their ears, humming "la la, I can't hear you". Expect a positive report from CERA very soon to capitalise on the unreality market.

Gentlemen, ladies, we are at T1, where demand and supply attempt to part company and something has to give. I'm betting on $100 this year.

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TJ on July 9, 2007 - 10:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

How long do you figure before somebody asks Aramco to shit or get off the pot?

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Cid Yama on July 9, 2007 - 11:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I believe several have been screaming that at the top of their lungs already. The reply - There's plenty of oil - more than enough - more will do nothing - everything's peachy -talk to us in September.

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Calorie on July 9, 2007 - 11:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Its a pity the full report is hidden behind the paywall for the next two weeks.

Try here:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/iea20070707.pdf

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garyp on July 9, 2007 - 1:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Many thanks for that.

Only a short way through so far, but its interesting how a document on oil is spending so much time saying there won't be enough gas by 2012. If they are hinting at peak oil, they are flat out saying peak gas.

Also interesting how rising biofuel feedstock prices make biofuel production uneconomic very rapidly. There is a correlation drawn between fuel prices and corn, etc. prices that kill biofuels as viable.

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GLT149 on July 9, 2007 - 3:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Also try here:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2d97d75a-2e0c-11dc-821c-0000779fd2ac,_i_rssPage=...

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PartyGuy on July 9, 2007 - 2:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You are so going to lose that bet to Robert :P

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314 comments on DrumBeat: July 9, 2007

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