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Hello Rainsong,
Your conjecture for slow decline has merit, but I suggest you are not giving enough weight for deleterious blowback cascading into ever greater supply disruptions. Expect ever greater amounts of pipeline explosions [Nigeria, Iraq, Mexico, etc], burning of utility company offices and maintenance vehicles [Bangladesh, Pakistan, etc], theft of copper wires and other essential equipment [now occuring worldwide], and so on.
IMO, universal Peakoil Outreach is the best way to make people understand that enhancing blowback by criminal action is a sub-optimal goal. Community protection of existing infrastructure plus rapid community conversion of these assets to relocalized permaculture is the best path.
Rioting is counterproductive: recall my earlier posting whereby the Bangladeshi people should be peacefully collecting bottles for solar hot water setups instead of making Molotov cocktails when the blackout occurred. If they want to act stupid: the Grim Reaper will gladly mow them down. Their choice.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
For example:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/ED-AG121_sethi_20070715160...
"Daddy, I sure am tired of walking everywhere. Why don't we try Not-Blowing-Up the buses and trains so we can ride them instead?"
Taken from this WSJ commentary on Pakistan:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118454710945867204.html?mod=googlenews_w...
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Apparently you have never lived or worked in Bangladesh. Strikes, called hartals, which normally include putting fire to something, at least old tyres, are quite common on a number of standard occasions whether this be an increase of bus fares or brownouts. The average Bangladeshi has no choice at all. Some of the riots are even paid by politicians. Why don't you take a plane and go there to tell them that their behaviour is counterproductive? Good luck.
War is chaos, and the chaotic will die off. There was also an end to war. Columbia was going insane with madness for some time. Have not read of any recent pipeline explosions there. One might have to accept that a percentage of production will always be down due to maintenance, break-downs, storms, violence, and inefficiency. One does not need these things, but must consider they happen and factor that into the equation.