<Back-to-the-Future Look at Oil Prices--Will Higher Prices Bring More Supplies?The Oil DrumDrumBeat: July 11, 2007>

26 comments on Steve Andrews of ASPO on CNBC

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Chris Vernon on July 11, 2007 - 2:17am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

So CNBC's first response is that it'll be okay due to recession? Some comfort.

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OnceFueled on July 11, 2007 - 7:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I noticed that too... we should be fine, because we will be in a recession.

Wah?

BTW, I will miss coffee.

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redcoltken on July 11, 2007 - 1:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Oh - we will get coffee - instant Mexican but we will get coffee.

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rainsong on July 11, 2007 - 7:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

June 2007 Auto Sales

India June 2007 car sales up 16.4%

Russia First Half 2007 foreign car sales up 70%

China June 2007 car sales up 29%

German natural gas car sales up 82.4% in May 2007

U.S. auto sales down 1% in 2007

Canadian auto sales up in June 2007

Japan June auto sales down, second year of sales declines

European Union auto sales forecast as flat for 2007

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Khebab on July 11, 2007 - 8:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

quote: "recession will enable the oil industry to catch on"

but for the last 3 years we heard:

"high prices will enable the oil industry to bring on new supply"

There are obviously three ways to solve PO:

1. high prices => demand destruction
2. high prices => more investment => more supply
3. high prices => more alternatives

it does not seem that option 2) or 3) are happening fast enough (or at all). Let's not forget also that from an oil exporter standpoint:

rising prices + declining production = declining prices + growing production

So they have little incentives to follow 2).

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Euan Mearns on July 11, 2007 - 9:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Everyone here is ignoring the fact that Saudi production will rise, according to John Kilduff, from 8.5 to 10 and then 12 million bpd by 2012.


I've been wanting to post this for a while, showing that Saudi production has stabilised around 8.5 mmbpd C+C for the last 4 months. So where next? The moment of truth will soon be with us. I still expect to see Saudi production rising temporarily towards 9.5 mmbpd in the course of the next 12 months, but the drag of falling production in Ghawar will IMO make it difficult to exceed earlier highs. Global recession to the rescue?

Some nice soundbites Steve - 3D Starbucks and Venezuelan wildcards!

And some Peak Reality from the Norwegian Energy Man - 23 countries already past peak...


http://energikrise.blogspot.com/

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Dave Cohen on July 11, 2007 - 11:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I noticed that he said that about The Kingdom. He said it with great confidence. I have disputed some of Stuart's claims — based on uncertainty — so the CNBC guy is not entitled to the projections he made.

He also cited the "large discovery in the Gulf of Mexico", but my latest treatment of the subject over at ASPO-USA demonstrates that GOM production is in trouble or uncertain again, including Jack, which I assume he was referring to.

Maybe the CNBC "energy expert" ought to acquire some expertise. Perhaps he doesn't want to be a bothersome, knowledgeable pest like us.

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BrianT on July 11, 2007 - 11:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Euan: An "economist" should explain that first chart. The sale price of the product goes up 6X from 1998 and the amount supplied goes up 6%. Therefore, you only need a sale price of $425/barrel to get another 6% of product supplied (advanced economic theory).

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westexas on July 11, 2007 - 12:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Guys, you need to factor in Texas. According to the Texas State Geologist, while we may not be able to equal our peak production of 3.5 mbpd, we can with--drumroll please--better technology, significantly increase our production (from below one mbpd currently). So, I think that we can confidently add about 2 mbpd of additional "production capacity" from Texas.

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