179 comments on Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle"
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See Iran for early Phase 2.
Indonesia, deep into Phase 2 (and importer of oil by quantity, but still a SMALL exporter by value due to high quality oil produced) endured blackouts rather than buy heavy bunker oil while waiting for new coal fired power plants to be completed.
A worthwhile point of discussion is when will the Phase 1 to Phase 2 transition take place.
My guesses:
Mexico within 2 or 3 years.
Venezuela just after the next Presidential election in about 5 years.
Russia within eight years, but more than three years.
Oddly, Norway, with the HIGHEST gas taxes in the world, could be said to be in Phase 2 and never in Phase 1.
I expect 70% or so of Norway's remaining URR to be exported, the highest in the world.
Best Hopes for doing SOMETHING now,
Alan
Norway is rather a special case. Due to their low (c 5m) population the percentage of total prod'n available for export remains high well into their decline phase. Their population is relatively stable and living standard already among the world's highest. It's also one of the last places you'd expect to see unrest, quite unlike many ME states.
Phase One could last a very long time. My guess is that we are likely to see price spikes to high levels that will be sustained ($100-200) and this will generate tremendous income and raise living standards significantly in exporting countries everywhere but Norway. The difference between $40 oil and $150 oil offsets a lot of years of 5% production declines as far as net income goes.
Prius / Suburban = 4.6
Ken