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54 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - July 2007
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54 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - July 2007
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Dear Rembrandt
Thanks for another fine post.
Nice to see all data together :-)
Especially the Export part is interesting.
One question. Why are the IEA figures almost always higher than the EIA figures. Is it based in definitions, methodology or?
One point
Fig. 5 Saudi... in your post above has world graph inserted?
kind regards/And1
Sorry, fixed the Saudi graph.
Thanks Chris, my error
Please note the flat production 'again' in KSA. Are you seeing this WT?
So is Mexico so therefore everything will be all right whew.
And I thought their biggest field was in terminal decline.
This is not correct. Oil production by PEMEX was down 70,000 barrels per day in May. The first figure below is All Liquids, the second is Crude.
April 3,603... 3,182
May.. 3,523... 3,110
http://www.pemex.com/files/dcpe/eprohidro_ing.pdf
A new report is due out next Monday the 23rd.
The EIA always uses these exact figures put out by PEMEX, however the IEA often ignores what PEMEX says and puts out their own idea of what they think Mexico produces. I suppose they may put them out before PEMEX does and that is why they are sometimes wrong. But Pemex has had these figures out since June 21st.
Ron Patterson
Interesting, the IEA and EIA indeed put out a higher figure.
The IEA put out a higher figure but the EIA put out the exact figure PEMEX gave for march and April, 3,182,000 bp/d, for both months. If you check the second column in the PEMEX report, (total crude), they are the exact figures reported by the EIA, month after month, going all the way back as far as the report goes.
EIA Mexico
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11b.xls
PEMEX
http://www.pemex.com/files/dcpe/eprohidro_ing.pdf
Ron Patterson
The flow rates are controlled at the wellhead. Yes they can probably open the taps but at what cost? They are managing their reserves very well and are very conscious to minimise water breakthrough. If production is flat at $75 you can be damn sure they are doing everthing they can to even maintain production and it is an heroic effort.
Marco.
Party Guy,
As we discussed the other day, the decline rate in post peak regions is net. If we look at production on an annual basis, the difference would be:
Last year's production - Declines from existing wells + Increases from workovers/pressure maintenance + New wells = New Annual production rate.
On an annual basis, post-peak regions can show, and have shown, increases in production. What do the following regions have in common: Texas; Lower 48; Total US; North Sea; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Mexico and now the world (crude oil)?
Answer: all of them have shown production peaks that are broadly consistent with their HL models (Texas and Saudi Arabia, as swing producers, peaked at later stages of depletion). Also, many of them have shown production increases post-peak, albeit to production levels below their peak levels.
So, get back to me when Saudi Arabia shows an annual crude oil production rate of 9.6 mbpd or more.
In Saudi Arabia and in virtually every net oil exporting country in the world, flat production = declining oil exports.
BTW, recall the discussions of Saudi Arabia looking into importing coal? Let's see, what would they do after they start importing coal?
http://www.upi.com/Energy/Briefing/2007/07/12/saudi_arabia_invests_in_re...
Saudi Arabia invests in renewables
Published: July 12, 2007 at 5:21 PM
Good morning!
The difference between IEA and EIA figures for Crude Oil results probably because they are handling huge global statistics. They probably have somewhat different sources for the more difficult countries. These result in differences for some countries/regions mainly in the last few months. There are often revisions that close the gap between these differences.
So I would guess it's an occupational hazard
--
It's quite interesting to see what's going on, for instance with the US actually increasing production. A trend that will likely continue in the 2nd half if the Hurricane season is a mild one. They have planned to bring the Tahiti field onstream in that period (200,000 barrels per day).
Tahiti was scheduled to come on stream in 2008.
Thunderhorse 250,000 barrels a day and
Atlantis 200,000 barrels a day in the GOM are also delayed.
BP was having problems with the Mad Dog subsalt deep production and "highly mobile tar deposits" at nearly 22,000 feet of total depth. The field is shut in.
Smaller offshore fields peaked and declined much faster than some of what the previous generation was finding to replace production with. Of course there is much new technology, more rigs available, and all sorts of laws and restrictions, in other places lawlessness, to add to the dilemma of predicting the future.
Peak oil will come if it has not already passed. Heavy oil production seems to be a separate foot hill or peak forming.
U.S. average daily crude oil production for the first half of 2007 exceeded crude oil production over 2006 (EIA weekly petroleum report).
per your charts, the difference is non opec, and began late 2006, so perhaps could be isolated. Prior to this eia/iea were in pretty good agreement, so it should be possible to locate what countries are causing the recent divergence.