81 comments on The NPC Report...
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I am willing to "frame" peak oil in more than one way.
One way is of course the decline because of geological constraints.
The other is that we moving from the easy to extract to the harder to extract oil. The harder to extract oil takes more resources of all kinds - engineers, special equipment, energy inputs like natural gas, and other resources like water in some cases. At some point, we are not able to continue to expand production because there simply aren't enough inputs to keep raising the amount of oil produced. This latter framing fits more with what the NPC is saying, and may be more understandable to some people.
They are only missing the fine print.
Given these massive investments we will be able to keep production maximized at the geologic decline rate.
They are right, WT export land model (ELM) is right, National Oil companies will invest at even lower rates, and I think a few people are starting to realize that with all three effects are included oil production is lowered by the sum of all three. Considering export land has oil exports effectively going to zero within ten years even with generous error margins we are looking at only 2-3 years at best before facing a major energy crisis.
Btw my wife informed me that we run out of oil by 2010 she heard this on a popular Taiwanese talk show. Just a tidbit but it shows peak oil is getting out ( a bit garbled it seems :)