Step Back,

Excellent point! I was also a very early visitor and poster at TOD. I clearly remember asking questions about production, reservoirs, and the like, expecting one of the resident oil experts to provide the answer. Often there were multiple answers and discussion about what the real numbers were and how to assess the validity of the sources. It was a wonderful learning experience for me (and I think others) that has now been relegated to premises - no longer needing discussion.

For me it was the process of verifying the premises that convinced me of the problem facing us. I always read TOD and other sources from the perspective of how all this application of money, technology, war intervention and the like will change the premise 'that the ability to deliver more oil in the future on a daily basis is no longer possible'. That is my testable hypothesis. I am looking for someone or some data to prove it incorrect.

The issue, for me now, is that contained within this simple premise is a very large background of information about things like permeability of rock, the price of drill steel, extraction rate vs oil in place, refining capacity of light sweet vs heavy sour, and a myriad of other tidbits that are required to convert a hydrocarbon deposit in the ground to gasoline in the tank. Without understanding these details it would be easy to convince me that more oil could be produced.

I suggest all new people to the Peak oil issue visiting TOD spend significant time researching these gritty details. They are all stored somewhere on TOD if you can just ferret out the threads. IMHO, TOD is the best place to find the technical answers presented in layman's terms.