Here is another interesting analysis of the USA situation re oil for anyone that is interested http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/0724.html

Now, overlay the Export Land Model on top of that.

An interesting column to add to the table would be the percent of world net exports that the 'deficit' represents.

I found a blog that summarizes Net Oil Exports. The March '07 data from this site (38,365 MBpd) and the EIA import data for March '07 (10,348 MBpd) implies that the US currently takes 27% of world net oil exports. Assuming an undulating plateau in net exports (Hey, Yergin does, why not me?), that puts our take of global exports at 55% in 2015. 94% by 2026.

Remind me again, what mechanism do we have to ensure this happens? <sarcasm> And where's the downside?</sarcasm>

This really does seem to be the big story. WT, stay on message!

bjj: Yep. Any way you slice it USA consumption is coming down (soon).