Cid,

Bush may have a motive for doing this. He needs an excuse (an event) to justify making the US a police state so he and Cheney can take over the reigns permanently.

Check out this article:

Old-Line Republican warns 'Something's in the works'

"Americans think their danger is terrorists," said Roberts. "They don't understand the terrorists cannot take away habeas corpus, the Bill of Rights, the Constitution. ... The terrorists are not anything like the threat that we face to the Bill of Rights and the Constitution from our own government in the name of fighting terrorism. Americans just aren't able to perceive that."

The perfect event for Bush to keep his foot on our necks would be a severe oil shock and economic depression. Pissing off SA would certainly assist in creating an oil shock. So would bombing Iran.

Wheeeeeeee!

Tom A-B

Tom A-B,

The article you link to refers to a Whitehouse executive order dated July 17 and available on the Whitehouse website. Google Bush,executive order and you'll find it. I commented on it on yeaterday's drumbeat. Its scary as can be, they have given themselves authority to arrest anti-war activists and confiscate their estates.

This isn't a political issue, its a basic American rights issue. Don't believe me or anyone else without reading it for yourself.
Bob Ebersole

I have now read the order and it certainly is scary. As you said Bob, in effect, any activism against the Iraq war could be considered threatening to the stabilization efforts in Iraq, which according to this executive order could or will lead to arrest and confiscation of property.

So, I suppose the general public will really be up in arms about this and we'll see lots of people supporting the impeachment of Bush. Or not.

If Bush or Darth Cheney don't leave office in 2008 I wonder what the reaction of the citizenry will be. I'd like to think we'll revolt, but I wouldn't be surprised if complacency rules.

Tom A-B

We need the order to be renamed the "Anna Nicole Order" for our fellow citizens to careBob Ebersole

I'd like to think we'll revolt, but I wouldn't be surprised if complacency rules.

I'm beginning to think that we may be focused on feeding ourselves (see, for instance, the article -- Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years).

The logical conclusion is that the US has justification (because of interference in Iraq) for seizing Iranian and Saudi oil reserves.

Might the Saudis Blow Up Their Oil Infrastructure?
by Daniel Pipes
FrontPageMagazine.com
May 11, 2005

Investigative writer Gerald Posner reveals something most extraordinary in Secrets of the Kingdom: The Inside Story of the Saudi-U.S. Connection, his book to be published by Random House later this month: that the Saudi government may have rigged its oil and gas infrastructure with a self-destruct system that would keep it out of commission for decades. If true, this could undermine the world economy at any time.

Posner starts by recalling various hints that Americans dropped back in the 1970s, that the high price and limited production of oil might lead to a U.S. invasion of Saudi Arabia and a seizure of its oil fields. For example, in 1975, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger murkily threatened the Saudis with a triple-negative: "I am not saying that there's no circumstances where we would not use force" against them.

This sounds wild, but would not surprise and may be the "Ace in the Hole" that KSA holds over the US administration's head to get what they want from the US.

It's difficult to tell who is the Alpha when it comes to US/KSA relations.

It does sound a bit wild and you have to wonder how they would guard against home-grown saboteurs. Even if it is just a story, its existence might say something about the true nature of America's "special relationship" with SA.

I think this story has been planted as part of a back-story to explain future events. ("A guy wrote a whole book predicting that this would happen!!") Should such a thing be needed, of course. Reminiscent of sending a few Arab types to flight school.

Why would the Royal Family do something like this? They're all stinking rich, at least the top dogs cetainly are. They'd be hunted worldwide if they were held responsible for collapsing the world's economy.

Well, discussing whether KSA is going to self-destruct as reported by one of the head honcho neocons at least reveals that for all the smiles they put out--they're not too chipper.

Remember how Muad Dib ultimately took power - by setting a self-destruct on the spice.

Frank Herbert was a bright dude. I can't imagine anyone coming to this site hasn't read Dune but if so, now might be a good time.

Yes...good observation....and yes...we've discussed the analogies between Dune and Middle East current day situation several times here at TOD.

(I shall not fear, fear is the mind killer, fear is the little death that leads to total obliteration --)

You know, it's been years(actually decades). It would be truely enjoyable to read them all over again. Frank Herbert is like J.R.R. Tolkien.

From Dune...."He who can destroy a thing (spice) controls it.
I have read the Saudi's have "mined" their oil fields with radioactive materials which they will detonate if a "foreign power" tries to take them (from Seymour Hersh the reporter, I believe).

Daniel Pipes is a right wing neo con lunatic. Gerald Posner wrote a book a couple of years ago expounding on 'why everything that the Warren Commission found about the JFK assination was absolutely and without a doubt unquestionably correct'...Draw your own conclusions.

Green--
I had Frank Herbert as one of my guest professors in A Future Of Man class at UCSB (Among the others were Buckminster Fuller and BF Skinner)--
Dune is one of the classics--
I doubt that education experience is available to the "education as a capital investment" generation of worker bees currently in the Factory.

Cool. Skinner was an interesting guy too... I liked his pigeon-guided missile.

I wonder just how the U.S. will actually take the Iranian oil reserves, or even the Saudi reserves, given that our military is spread paper thin already covering Iraq and Afghanistan. there are some 65 million people in Iran and lots of them would apparently like to self destruct if in so doing they would kill an American or 2.

A large part of our problem in Iraq was the result of our failure to put enough boots on the ground to hold things together after we destroyed the Iraqi army. How are we going to protect the infrastructure, let alone secure the cities? Look at the story about the Mexican pipeline attacks. They have 60,000 km of pipelines. Would it take 1 soldier every 200 meters to keep the bad guys away? That's 300,000 soldiers. Next, think of the rail lines. Put a guard or 2 on every bridge or culvert?

Well, lets draft a few million, just in case. Better do that before the invasion of Iran. Like maybe, starting next week.

E. Swanson

I am reminded of Hitler in his bunker. As the Russians closed in on Berlin, I believe that he was sending orders out to armies that had long since been overrun by the Allies. I believe that Hitler put a new general in charge of the German air force, not long before the Russians took Berlin.

Of course, Hitler didn't have thousands of nukes, and the US military is battered, but still very effective.

However, as it becomes increasingly clear to American soldiers that they are dying to keep the petroleum flowing to American SUV's, I have long thought that we might see more and more refusals to deploy, at least in the junior to midlevel officer ranks. As General Newbold pointed out in an essay in Time Magazine a couple of years ago, military officers do not swear to obey orders. They swear to uphold and defend the Constitution.

Black_Dog: You assume our mission in Iraq is to "hold things together". The actions of viceroy Bremer and others do not seem to indicate that your assumption is warranted.

wt: Better watch yourself in light of the new EO! We were disposing a violent dictator and are spreading democracy. Pure and simple--it has nothing to do with these "SUV's" you write of.

Upon careful and mature reconsideration, I have concluded that George Bush is my hero, that he is incapable of making a mistake and that I believe everything he says.

I think it was Michael Klare who said recently that the US WILL lose control of ME oil. The only alternative is to blow it all up so nobody else can have it.

I just tried to work out a way that blowing up Saudi Arabia might be attractive to the neocons, and it just got too complicated. If the booby-traps are there, then even if we exterminated the regime in Riyadh, we'd lose the flow from Saudi Arabia for years. The problem is that the other exporting nations would then move to fill the gap in the global marketplace, forcing the US into a bidding war. I heard that right now the US gets shares of roughly over 10% each from Saudi, Kuwait, Mexico, Canada and Nigeria. If Saudi goes down, the Persian Gulf becomes pretty unusable so I think we can kiss Kuwait goodbye. I'm just not sure that Canada and Mexico can fill our demand even at gunpoint. We need to wait for more oil sands infrastructure to be built in Canada and Venezuela so our troops can get it easily. Nigeria might just ship more oil to Europe.

Now if we could be absolutely certain that the booby traps weren't there, then the old Kissinger plan of seizing the fields but leaving the government intact is an option, but I'd be damn scared of the retaliation. The Saudis seem to have a record of backing elusive insurgents successfully.

It seems that, just as 1930s Japan found that it couldn't solve its economic problems without a series of acts that ultimately would mean war with the US, and thus cut to the chase by bombing Pearl Harbor, now the US can't get out of its hole without nuking a bunch of countries at the same time, because otherwise the survivors would unite against us and bring down our global economic empire. As the world's 2nd biggest nuclear power and its biggest oil producer, Russia is where all the madness must culminate. We'd have to do the Big One. Well what if we hit 'em with a thousand nukes, took out the government, and there were still 100,000,000 Russian survivors marching West? It's no good. We are borrowing so much money from so many countries that we can't afford any disruption in the global bubble. Or we must enslave everyone in the world at the same time and overnight convert to a Nazi-style theft economy. There's no in-between.

I bet they stay awake at night in Washington trying to figure out how to pull it off, though.

Why nuke Russia? They export oil, we import oil. Nuke western Europe instead.

West Texas: Its wonderful to read that you have given your unqualified support to our dear beloved Great Decider! wink,wink,nudge,nudge

Did you comment on the thread yesterday about England? It's got to be the poster child for the ELM; declining production meeting rising internal consumption means no exports.

Flavius Aetius

The UK hit peak production and peak exports in 1999. They were a net importer in 2006. Their decline rate in net exports, from 2000 to 2005, was 60% per year. This was actually worse than the decline rate for my hypothetical Export Land Country.

Yes, and this would suggest you are being conservative in your model.

The wheels should start falling off England's cart pretty soon.

Flavius Aetius

You can't refuse, but there are drugs in Iraq, just like in Vietnam. Drugs, the escape for an inescapable situation. You watch. And just like Vietnam the drugs will come back home.

I wonder just how the U.S. will actually take the Iranian oil reserves, or even the Saudi reserves, given that our military is spread paper thin already covering Iraq and Afghanistan

You've heard about developing a fusion-powered economy?

That may be the plan. Not a GOOD plan, but no more delusional than the other plans we've seen lately. The way it works is you convince the rest of the world that you're crazy and belligerent enough to drop fusion devices on them, and they give you cheap oil and other stuff. Very high EROEI.

It won't WORK, but that's currently not a popular criterion for energy plans anyhow.

Finally fusion is past break-even!

They don't need to take control - only to deny access to others. Part II of the plan is the dieoff. The dieoff is necessary - so it is better to control it than to let it happen.

Yes, it is way too complicated. It needs to be gamed out by a number of groups of well informed people. I don't have a clue how to set that up. But don't tell me Cheney et al aren't doing it on an ongoing basis. They have their version of the Second Foundation going. Traces of it leak out of the Manhattan Institute now and then - I'm thinking of their work on controlling language at the level of what thoughts one can formulate.

Tainter is our best hope. Third Foundation on Tainter; localization destroys the First and diversity the Second.

cfm in Gray, ME

our "failure in iraq" began with a 5-4 vote in the supreme court in november 2000.

The irony, of course, is that the Bush administration is actually telling the truth this time about the Wahabbist Saudis' responsibility for the majority of US casualties in Iraq, both directly and through backing of Iraqi Sunnis.
But who hasn't known that for years now, MSM silence notwithstanding? The question we should be asking here is, "Why now?" The theories I read here go like:
- The desperation of a flailing, helpless US administration.
- Creating a fall guy for the imminent FF shortages.
- Establishing a pretext for seizing the SA oilfields.
- Intimidation/threatening the house of Saud, for occult reasons.
- As a limited hangout, because the Dems are about to blow the lid off it.

The last theory makes sense to me because Hillary has the same devotion to Israel that GWBush does, but she isn't hobbled by those troublesome ties to the Saudi royals. She could sure make hay from our talking-tough-on-terror CiC, who is in fact coddling the bad guys that are old family friends!

Many of these people were around in the Nixon admin and learned the lesson - never give in. They think Nixon blew it by resigning. During the Reagan scandals, they were too weak and the republican moderates got the upper hand. This time they are stronger and prepared to go all the way. In fact, they are relishing the opportunity. They've pretty much got everything in place. The open dissent of the 60's and 70's will not be allowed this time around. They will come down hard this time and shut it down.

As a teenager I lived in Argentina from 1976 to 1978 and I saw first hand how the powers that be shut down dissent - suspected leftists and troublemakers were rooted out, hunted and exterminated. At the time, I saw military operations in the streets and the searching of homes etc. I later found out that thousands were disappeared - missing, flown drugged over the Ocean and dumped etc.

When the day comes here, most of us will be oblivious to it. We will notice certain public figures may go missing, certain activists will not show up for work, certain reporters and talk radio hosts may disappear, but nothing concrete will be reported in the media. The internet, or parts of it, will be shut down. A definite chill will be in the air and then it may spread depending on the circumstances. We delude ourselves if we say it can't happen here. It can happen here and when it does, it has the potential of being more repressive than anything experienced in Latin America - after all, we taught them much of how to do it.

My impression is that there has been a huge struggle within the Administration and the party over power and control of the apparatus that conceivably would launch such a repression. Like I said, all of the pieces appear to be in place, the issue is whether "they" have sufficient power to pull it off. With Bush and Cheney in place they probably do.

The question is: what event or set of circumstances will trigger the start of the real repression? (Some would argue that "repression - light" has already started. Note the Executive Branch power grabs, etc.)

Hi Bob, I read that the other day when you posted the note on it. It doesn't affect me directly of course, but these are all wider problems that will have some impact on everyone, whether indirectly or directly.

Interesting times...

"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein

It seems to me that for a long time now Bush has wanted out of his job. He is so uncomfortable up there, so over his head, taking this pummeling.

There may well be plans to maintain power, but I can't see Bush being the strong man to pull something like that off.

I have been saying for several years now that while the framework of a police state is being created in the U.S., it is very unlikely that anyone currently in power is likely to be a beneficiary of it - which, considering that the U.S. has had one of two families at its helm since 1988, is something to mull over. And the idea that someone named Bush or Clinton has had uninterrupted presidential powers since then is a fascinating comment itself, isn't it? Especially in the realistic light that another person named Clinton could conceivably be in power for another 8 years - an entire generation of Americans will have grown up with the idea of the presidency being passed between two families at that point.

Sounds like you are trying to deflect attention from the Republicans who have been behind the erosion of the Constitution and Bill of Rights since Reagan first took office. Just like the underclass is rising up in Mexico, the population in the US will see a sea change once they realize they are not included in the future prosperity. You thought the French Revolution was bloody, Americans are armed and dangerous.

Americans are armed and dangerous

When TS hits TF, it will be interesting to see what the citizenry will rally around. On the one hand you've got a state with increasing dominion over its citizenry (at least it seems to be going that direction). On the other hand you've got desperate people who can't find employment, fuel, security, and perhaps food.

I tend to think if those two scenarios play out at the same time, the citizenry will rally behind anyone or anything that puts bread on the table. If the police state can do it, the police state will survive. If not, the police state won't have a chance and a revolution will occur, resulting in regional nation-states loosely organized around trade and geography.

Tom A-B

I think the different factions of the anti-Bush movement are kind of like the different factions of the anti-Saddam movement in Iraq. We really don't agree with each other about anything positive, so when the dictator falls, we will all go for each others' throats.

Otherwise known as the 2008 (tentative) election.

I think it is underestimated how large a constituency there is in the US for authoritarian rule (if not outright fascism).

Many that have pushed libertarian reasons for being armed in the US really would be happy to see a police state - once assured that "their" guns are safe...
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man

Nope - the people who get the contracts for constructing databases are generally interested in money - IBM is neither democratic nor republican, but it most certainly has interests which mesh well with whoever is writing the checks and laws. The same is true of AT&T, or any other phone company, for example, along with the credit agencies, private prison companies, airlines - the list is very, very long, and to get into the subject seems to stamp one as being part of the fringe.

I truly think the paradigm of republican/democrat is likely to break down, and it will be those replacing them which will appreciate the tools so profitably constructed over the last decades.

America is likely to become the first profitable police state in human history - the tools were always built with profit in mind - just look at the history of credit cards - in the mid-1980s, a credit transaction was checked in a few seconds from a terminal using a region wide radio system - or at least it was where I worked. The technology has improved vastly since then. And America has essentially nothing in terms of data protection laws, or even an awareness of the need for protecting personal data from being collected in the first place. At least in Germany, my concerns don't sound strange, they sound like recent history.

One of the things about following the housing bubble has been how most Americans seem to be no longer able to comprehend living without credit - and here I am, never having had a credit card in my life. There is a lot I don't understand at this point about my fellow Americans, and they have little interest in my factual discussions of the world they live in. It has become very difficult for me to try to describe the U.S. to Germans at this point - and time to stop before we drift into discussing how many American beliefs about evolution. The U.S. is much less part of the industrial West than it was before Ronald Reagan was elected, both in manufacturing and in social terms.

Expat: Not the first- China is extremely profitable.

Expat: Another point- as long as this "police state" lets persons with a net worth exceeding $10 million US do basically anything they want (as long as they are not politically involved)it will be supported strongly by the media and a good % of the public.The American public has shown beyond a doubt that they love to see the poor get smacked around.

"The American public has shown beyond a doubt that they love to see the poor get smacked around."

What goes around, comes around.

I think the Pinochet regime in Chile was the test-run by the precursors to the neocons.

Now there's a cheerful thought! :-(

Test runs? Try, not just Chile, but Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, every country in Central America except Costa Rica, Iran, etc in the recent past. (The list could go on.) All of them suffered CIA/US Corporate involvement in propping up or installing right-wing authoritarian regimes that decimated the democratic opposition. See my post up thread. There have been plenty of test runs in the last 50 years. They are well prepared.

They are well prepared.

Hum!
One learns by his mistakes but do you really think they learnt anything?

Perhaps they learnt they might just get away with it, with a bit of luck. Scot-free, so to speak.

The start, of course, was 1980, when H.W. Bush entered the White House as vice-president. That could conceivably make the Bush-Clinton period 36 years, 1980-2016, if Hillary were elected, and counting.

One of the ideas floated on why the Democrats are mute on the police state laws is that the power they provide to the President and her entourage, would automatically pass on to Hillary in January 2009.

This is why I think that HRC is a suicide candidate for Dems. Many think they cannot lose - but ultimately Bush gets hung around the Dems neck not the Republicans if HRC is the nominee because the argument will be made for change... against the failed nepotism of the Bush II Presidency...
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man

Let's inject a bit of reality into this thread. At noon on January 20, 2009, a new U.S. President will take the oath of office. George W. Bush will get on a plane and fly back to Crawford, Texas. You will be able to see highlights on the evening news.

The new President will probably be a Democrat, but it's too soon to be sure.

That is no more "reality" than any other scenario that hasn't happened yet.

I love hearing senators downplay court action against the Bush Admin because "they will be out of office by the time this is resolved."

SO WHAT! Don't let this current Presidential power grab(s) slide into the next administration.

Let these battles work their way through the court system for the next 10 years if need be. Don't just give it away. Argh.

Rigged Diebold machines.
Convenient terrorist attack.
Rudy "Il Duce" Giuliani, 44th and last President of the United States.
Like Bush, he's proudly ignorant about foreign policy. He was kicked off the Iraq Study Group for non-attendance. Who will he turn to for guidance? Cheney, Abrams, Wolfowitz, Bolton, Bolten, Feith, unpunished Libby.
He lived in the mansion with his girlfriend and got away with it. That's the stench of monarchical self-entitlement.
Bush didn't want to hear that people were being tortured. Giuliani gets off on it.
Nothing important improves.