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247 comments on DrumBeat: July 27, 2007

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Gail the Actuary on July 27, 2007 - 12:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The IEA Oil Market Report is interesting. If I am reading the report right, it sounds like starting in the middle of the second quarter of 2007, they are trying to adjust for the consistent upward bias in some of the non-OPEC numbers. It is hard to understand what they are doing - one place they talk about an adjustment of -410,000 barrels per day; another place they say the adjustment for this month totals -220,000.

Another thing that becomes clear from the report is that the high demand numbers seem to be driven by the transportation sector. The transportation sector shows high demand growth, in country after country.

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Dave Cohen on July 27, 2007 - 1:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ah! Welcome to the Wild, Wacky, Wonderful World of IEA accounting.

Rule # 1
All numbers, including numbers for years & months gone by, and especially forecasts, are subject to revision at any time. Therefore, every Oil Market Report is just a fleeting snapshot in time.

Rule # 2
Revisions made under Rule # 1 are also subject to meta-revisions without notice should past estimates, even when they've already been revised, be shown to be totally out of touch with reality.

And always remember to have fun! Enjoy yourself!

Hey Ron (above) and Gail, see my latest column Inside the IEA Medium Term Report.

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247 comments on DrumBeat: July 27, 2007

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