447 comments on Why Not Nuclear Power?
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It's a shame that this comment got so high up in the thread, because it is so very much not true.
Human beings can design systems that preserve, restore and regenerate natural capital, while providing services and resources to satisfy human needs. I have personally done so on a small scale, and I can see how it could be done on a large scale, if we choose to do so. All we need to do is accept:
1) That it's a priority, because it's necessary to our survival.
2) That it will slightly diminish short-term returns (in most cases), for the sake of long-term health.
3) That just because we can do something, does not mean we should.
If we could wrap ourselves around those principles, we could design a technological civilization for the ages. Alas, the discussion seems mostly divided between the "there's-no-problem" cornucopians and the "technology-is-fundamentally-unsustainable" doomers. There seems to be very little room left to consider the middle road.
Besides being a Lovins disciple, I guess this would make you a cornucopian as well. From your Live Journal page we come to understand that, beyond your link to the online version of NatCap, "I like technology. A lot. I like the ways it makes my life easier, more effective, more free, and more interesting. I also like the intellectual challenge of creating it, understanding it, and using it. About the only thing I don't like about it, is having to fix it. But I really enjoy figuring out how to design it so that it doesn't need fixing." See here's the thing, have you been able to get all your technology from fully renewable sources? You sure none of them rely on trace elements which are finite in nature? Oh, but don't let that deter your (benighted) enthusiasm.
The original affluent society, see Stone Age Economics by Sahlins, still holds the record for highest cultural EROEI and leisure time. It has been the steady encroachment of technological 'advances' that have required more time of each individual, and increasing reliance upon finite sources of energy, to provide a lifestyle. The early adopters of the sedentary lifestyle also lost their ability to fend against the wilds. Hence their hybrid-domestication of the nomad hunter by providing for his needs in exchange for protection; which is where royalty came from and we have been slaves to them ever since.
Point 1 being priority, score one for the home team. Point 2, that it will slightly diminish is a gross understatement. The only long term health to be had will come at a great decrease in the net amount of per capita energy consumption; barring a rethinking of how many people will live at any given time. History is clear. We went from wood to charcoal to coal to oil to splitting atoms. Unless the Stoernies blow open known physics, there ain't no free lunch on the other side of this feeding frenzy.
Done any math lately? If the latest attempt at solar farming is any indication, it will take the area of Connecticut to power residential use alone in the US. Forget industrial. Not a watt for commercial. Nada for schlepping their carcasses around. How many of these exercises need to be done at the end of the sustainability chapter before the lesson sinks in?
You know what long term was/is? That's the time in which we did not seriously jeopardize the holding capacity of our planet. How long do you seriously think there will be all those nifty metals around to enjoy so that your iPhone can be used to remind you that it's time to turn the compost? Ahhh the life of an engineer.
Aboriginal societies tested the limits of the system long ago. Those that survived came to live within them. Those that did not perished. Too bad about the opposable thumb and incipient desire to overreach. That is why we are here. Hello. We have the capability to manipulate far beyond the sustainable ability of the parent system to provide. Attachment. Bittersweet.
So, have fun. The other side of the century will be the proof in the pudding. Of course only those with a belief system that incorporates an afterlife will get to know the answer. The living will be far less fortunate given the inability of most to deal with reality.
By the way, your point 3? I think that was the main crux of wretched excess' comment. The problem being you are to attached to your technology to see the forest for the trees...
I think you misread my position, badly. But it's understandable, I guess, given the material I've put online. Maybe it's time to revise again.
If I'm a disciple of anyone, it would be much more Bill McDonough than Amory Lovins. To Lovins, solving a problem by design is a matter of engineering out all the waste. To McDonough, it's a matter of reconsidering the problem statement, figuring out what we actually want (e.g. cold beer and hot showers, not refrigerators and water heaters), and then designing a solution that works within the context of existing and potential natural systems. The key is respect for natural systems, and the selective and careful application of technology where it will do the most good.
I do agree that if humanity has a future, it will be based on greatly reduced per-capita energy consumption. That's OK. By conservative estimates, we waste 2/3 of our energy production, and 4/5 of our transportation energy. And those estimates are made within the context of currently prevailing design practice for buildings, generation/transmission assets, and transportation. In point of fact, our waste:service ratio is probably more like 20:1, when you consider that a well-designed building in most climates needs only a very minimal climate control system, for example.
I'm not particularly worried about depletion of non-renewable non-energy resources. Either we will learn to design and live with closed cycles (>90% recovery), in which case it won't be a problem, or we won't, in which case the law of exponential growth dictates that no amount of resources will be enough.
If we build our artifacts from carefully selected technological and biological nutrients, we aren't going to run short of materials. We've got plenty, if we're careful. All that we need then is energy, and that is actually a challenging but tractable problem if we can stop being so toweringly stupid and short-sighted at every turn.
As for my personal love of technology: Yes, I like it. But that doesn't mean I particularly care for the way that it has invaded every nook and cranny of every moment of our lives. I like having the ability to travel to distant destinations at high speed, but I don't want to do it every day. I like being able to communicate instantly with distant loved ones, but I'd much rather see them in person. I like having access to an abundance of food, but I'd much rather grow my own. And I will, and have, made what most people would consider sacrifices in order to live closer to these preferences.
I rely heavily on email and the web, because it facilitates my ability to shape the world in a positive direction, but frankly I'd be just as happy to give up much of that. I just don't feel that I, personally, as a white American male with an expensive education, have the right to go live on a mountain and tend my garden while the world goes to hell around me.
What I hope for in the long run is not millions of years of low tech civilization but mature biotechnology, nanotechnology and subcultures no one yet have dreamed of. So little have been done of what can probably be done but it wont happen overnight and we can not count on it to happen to solve todays problem with magic technology.
Now the game is to preserve and build upon what we already have in technology and culture capable of change and development. And to have a good time doing it while building for the next generation.
Nice points, Green.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Just because we CAN do something, doesn't mean we WILL. Humans are dumber than yeast. Maybe they are inventive, have opposable thumbs and all, but philosophically, they have the wisdom of a starved raccoon. It's amazing to me that more of us aren't found lying on the sides of our own highways.
That's because sitting on the fence means two things:
1. You have to come down to eat.
2. You are an easy target.
3. (I can't count) There isn't much profit in the middle ground unless you are a lawyer who gets paid for not solving problems, or a politician that gets paid by crooks on both sides of the fence.
Doomers like me see the long term problems as the immediate need, because we've tried to see where compromise leads, and it leads to the status quo. Things have to change. One way or another, especially how decisions are made based upon the profit motive alone. The only thing wrong with the busload of lawyers going over the cliff is that it doesn't have their accountants strapped to the roof.
We can argue about the numbers all day, but if the plan to use nuclear is only compared to using coal, then there really isn't any choice. The real question is still this: "What are we using the energy FOR?" All the talk about current consumption, reducing consumption by 'x' percent, and finding sources to 'fulfill the demands of customers' never questions the actual results of what humans are doing. It's one thing to say "we have freedom", or "we will live in harmony with our environment", but you have to ask yourself, and others, "Then what?"
What is the Net Creativity of the human race going to be, when all is said and done? What do we contribute to the universe that makes it a better place for children to grow up in? Are they really growing up, or have we created a perpetual game zone for them to exist like yeast in a petri dish?
If the petri dish is going to be contaminated anyway, then let's just burn it up now and enjoy ourselves, right?
The petri dish has existed for hundreds of millions of years, with many Net Creative species (Perhaps that includes ourselves before our 200 years of industrial toys).
Are you trying to make a better petri dish or just minimize how fast we drain it (coal) or destroy it (nuclear)? To someone who is a cornucopian or windmill salesman, my rants sound anti-technology. I am not. I am against wrongheaded technology or technology being used for the sake of the technology, not for the sake of Net Creativeness. Any technology we adapt should provide more potential(to our grandchildren) usefulness than it uses up in resources. That's a pretty simple theory. See how the things you do add up in your own mind. Rationalize any way you want, because Nature will decide in the end, not us, unless we change.
Last one out of the dish, please turn off the lights (if they still work).
Humans are dumber than yeast. Maybe they are inventive, have opposable thumbs and all, but philosophically, they have the wisdom of a starved raccoon.
It sure seems that way. On the other hand, consider the degree of social evolution we've achieved in the last couple of centuries (e.g. a semblance of racial and sexual equality). We've come a long way, far enough that I can't rule out the possibility that we will be able to meet this new challenge.
In my mind, we are in the process of transitioning from being a pre-tech species to a technological one. As technicus, we are a juvenile species, and we look pretty hopeless. But teenagers tend to be that way, and if we gave up on them, there'd be no future for the species.
What? You see a transition from one type of species to another, more highly developed one within the current human population?
Give me a break! Evolution works with hundreds and thousands of generations, not two or three.
And what part of the human population are you talking about? People like yourself? And what about the other 99.9 percent of people who are oblivious to any understanding of world systems and the oncoming crisis due to lack of or bad education, daily fight for survival, lack of IQ, misinformation by the MSM etc.?
Wake up, man!
Davidyson
I do not think we have progressed in any degree of social evolution. We just have a few more educated people around who have time to consider social issues. Look at some of the writings in biblical times - Jesus (or whoever wrote or said those words) said things that were socially very advanced (and I don't mean manipulative religous messages) - his words seem far more socially advanced than many of the ones people spout today IMHO. Of course some things that were said at the time were also painfully socially retarded, but we make plenty of such statements today too...
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
I see no shame in it at all. I agree with just about everything he wrote, nor does it diminish what you wrote.
That we are not doing as you wisely think we should is one fact that better supports wretched excess's post than your ready dismissal of it. Until we do as you suggest and do so Big Time we'll be left hanging on the "If we could wrap ourselves around those principles" problem!
Right there is a Big Time problem, as exemplified by most of this nuclear rehash to solve problems that are at root ones of human excess. What's really telling is that your "middle road" concepts are no where on the publicly acceptable radar screen of what we can and should be doing. It's all mostly more of the same stupidity that got us where we are now.
There is no shame at all in pointing this out. Especially with respect to how nuclear power is getting trotted out for another look. What's to see that wasn't there the first time? It stunk then and it stinks now! Chasing after it just goes to prove how totally incapable we are at wrapping ourselves around the sane principles you wrote of to resolve our problems.
It's all about: Grab another mop & bucket, boys! The taps are on and we can't turn them off!
Insane.
"Insane."
Yup.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
I should like to correct something, which is:
It's all about: Grab another mop and bucket, boys! The taps are on and we can't think to turn them off!
I took some calculations that Robert and Nick started and polished (well at least sanded) them a little. Getting sustainable is pretty easy and saves money all along the way. Here is the link.
Chris
One of the problems with many nuclear proponents is an almost blind refusal to accept that we are part of a greater set of interrelated systems - not separate from the world. Anyone advocating anything close to current lifestyles is a psychopath.
We like to pretend we are separate from the world, because we've had the cheap energy to set aside normal constraints for a while... but all that ignorance will catch up with us, and if some things do not catch up with us, they will end up affecting our children or their children. Nuclear may stretch our current lifestyles out a bit, while making a few wealthy, but it'll come back and bite us later.
So we can choose. Do we take some responsibility for what we are doing or not? If yes, then ask serious questions:
The available productive area of the earth is 1.9ha per person. How much are we using? What is really sustainable?
We share that area with most other land-based organisms, and some of that area with non-organic resources. Whatever we extract from the earth that will not be replaced in the near (geological) future is a drawdown on mineral (and other) savings that future generations will not have the benefit of (except for the few enduring things we create).
So what level of energy use is sustainable?
What level of fresh water use?
Soil use at rates required to feed 6.5 billion and growing?
Plant and animal husbandry/natural ecosystems?
Mineral use?
Pollution?
Etc...
Why give lip service to sustainability? It will only drag things out... which answers the question - many of us will kid ourselves that we are doing something and just hope to leave it to our grandkids to suffer the worst of it.
And the answer is not in NO technology. Technology will always have its place. I just don't believe nuclear technology is part of the non-lip-service sustainable equation.
Solutions? Ideally, I think it starts with voluntary population reduction, coupled with uncensored education of the problems we are causing, looking at truly sustainable practices, and encouragement by government and citizens to reject our economic, consumer, money obsessed society... how do we do these things? That's the real question?
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
I basically do not care about the global average. For me the relevant question is how the local environment wich I have a chance to influence (Sweden) can be cultivated in a way that gives long term prosperity and makes the world better. We are 9 million here now, we will probably be 10 million in a not so distant future and we can export stuff that maks a small but notisable differense for perhaps a hundred million people or so. When we get more efficient we can do more but we will never save the whole world.
We will probably use at least 10 times the global average of water but that does not matter since we got the rainfall and the best we can do is let it aid us in industrial processes that gives goods that can benefit people. If we add plenty of electricity we can do more with the water we get, the biomass we grow and the plentiful minerals.
I would be content with such ambitions if they were common.
They dont give a fair world in absolute wealth levels but a lot healthier one where the resources will last a lot longer and some will last close to indefinately if technology and efficiency continue to improve.
"I basically do not care about the global average."
That says it all really...
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Very terrible of me that I dont want to sacrifice myself and my community/culture for getting closer to global average. I only want to work very hard with being usefull and encouraging stuff that in the long term makes life easier for a large number of people. That wont help everybody but it sure betas beinga doomer or run to the hills as a survivalist or having ideas about working against individual self intrest.
There is nothing in power-down that is against self-interest, except perhaps having a large family and laziness. There is nothing in it that is survivalist or about running for the hills if it is a common societal goal. Living closer to the land, walking, using public transport, being open about the problems we face, having small families, changing our market culture - none of these things are bad, and I believe the overall benefits would far outweigh any perceived "sacrifices".
Why does everyone associate power-down with doom and gloom? That is an uninformed, narrow view, and it if is the best argument you can come up with, it only serves to support the proposition.
If you really want to argue against it, try asking how we go about changing the way people think in order to reach the goals of sustainability. That will be the hard part...
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
Power down and all that implies is coming. The real questions are: How well we accept and work within such a reality while relinquishing our humanistic arrogance of control over such matters as opposed to fighting against such submission as it occurs.
As Aldo Leopold put it: "The question is, does the educated citizen know he is only a cog in an ecological mechanism? That if he will work with that mechanism his mental health and material well being can expand indefinitely? But that if he refuses to work with it, it will ultimately grind him to dust?"
In short: Nature does not make political compromises with anyone.
In this sense power down is all about living within the means of creation as it is and not as we keep trying to make it. IMO, we've got a ways to go before we get it.