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195 comments on DrumBeat: July 30, 2007

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xironman on July 30, 2007 - 9:12am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Noting the top article about hurricanes, you may have the first legit system coming together in the central Atlantic. Here is a picture from the floater. A long way to go before it would be a storm, a lot of dry air out there. Still something to watch.

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InJapan on July 30, 2007 - 9:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Here is a link to a PDF from the authors cited in the newstory:

http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/research/assets/Holland_AMS_Jan_2007.pdf

It is featured on the NCAR website so I assume it is the one referred to in the news story. According to the presentation, the majority of the work done was to establish an understanding of past observations - given that satellites are relative recent as observational tools. Given that, the authors claim that there is indeed a relationship between Atlantic SST and hurricane frequency.

Oh, and there is a better (than Yahoo) synopsis of this work here:
http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn12377-tropical-storms-step...

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 30, 2007 - 10:20am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The local weather person pointed this out Sunday evening and used an adjective similar to "likely" or "quite possibly" to develop into a tropical depression.

Best Hopes for upper level shear in the Gulf of Mexico,

Alan

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xironman on July 30, 2007 - 11:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Just to keep you thinking check out the second one

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS AREA SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

Here is the tracks. Still kind of meaningless at this point.

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Sunspot on July 30, 2007 - 11:55am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And there's another Typhoon that should threaten Japan in 4-5 days. Not what they need right now!

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Ash23 on July 30, 2007 - 7:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://typhoon.yahoo.co.jp/weather/jp/typhoon/typha.html (it appears to be deepening, was 980hpa last night)

Kyuushuu has had amazing amounts of rainfall this year.

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195 comments on DrumBeat: July 30, 2007

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