Luis - what an amazing amount of work - packed with information. Thanks alot to you and Mr Laherrere for putting this out.

When looked at in this way, I don't see how this can't be viewed as an 'energy' problem instead of just an oil problem. So many of our energy resources are interwoven - if coal and natural gas (in NA), will also be facing cost/depletion pressures, I don't see how we are going to avoid an energy train wreck.

One note - the (ominous) natural gas vs wells graphs in Figure 5 ends in 2005 - the US has increased NG production in both 2006 and ytd 2007, though not up to 1973 or 2000 numbers.

Above all blame Jean! I only wrote the questions.

When looked at in this way, I don't see how this can't be viewed as an 'energy' problem instead of just an oil problem.

Yes, for now we are facing a liquid fuels problem, a much worse problem with energy will unfold when Natural Gas and Coal start loosing their growth momentum by 2020.

I don't see how we are going to avoid an energy train wreck.

Jean gave us good clues on that, life style change and some interesting alternatives like the Rubia reactor – a personal favourite of mine.

NG production is indeed growing in the US, but with Canada beyond peak and the recent collapse in prices the North American picture still isn’t that good.

Carlo Rubbia is the inventor of the 'Rubia (sic) reactor'. He is a Particle Physicist of very considerable scientific talent. And also a very skilled self promoter (very important to gaining a leadership position in Particle Physics). His proposal, I think, involves the use of Particle Accelerators to maintain a fission reaction. He appeared to never had a serious of working on development of this idea HIMSELF. It was a proposal designed to promote the development of bigger and more powerful Particle Accelerators, which would facilitate his scientific research program, and maybe acquisition of another Nobel Prize.
I think one should not count on this idea ever becoming a reality. It will be like controlled (non-explosive) nuclear fusion - always in the future.

As I noted over on the Drumbeat thread, the Kashagan Field is the only confirmed one mbpd and larger field on the horizon, with recoverable reserves of about 9 Gb or so.

From nuclear + fossil fuel sources, the world uses the energy equivalent of 9 Gb of oil every 45 days.

BTW, I have been expecting--based on the HL (logistic model)--to see a decline in Russian crude oil production. When Russian crude oil production does start declining, I expect the decline to be rapid. If their production declines at 10% per year, and if the consumption continues to increase at about 5% per year, their net oil exports will be down by about 50% in three years.

Jeffrey J. Brown

http://www.energyintel.com/DocumentDetail.asp?Try=Yes&document_id=208885...
Russia Cuts August Black Sea Crude Exports, Maintains Baltic
Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Summary
Russian seaborne crude oil exports are set to drop off sharply in August, as Moscow plans to cut exports from Black Sea ports, while maintaining shipments from the Baltic. Russian pipeline monopoly Transneft has penciled in seaborne exports of 2.931 million barrels per day (13.396 million metric tons) in August, down more than 100,000 b/d from June's schedules for 3.034 million b/d (12.833 million tons).

One note - the (ominous) natural gas vs wells graphs in Figure 5 ends in 2005 - the US has increased NG production in both 2006 and ytd 2007, though not up to 1973 or 2000 numbers.

One concern I see expressed with regards to oil production over and over is that it's possible to prop up production today at the expense of production tomorrow. It seems to me (please correct me if I'm wrong) that this concern should be even greater when it comes to natural gas. What is there to stop us from using our natural gas at large production rates up until the last bit is used? With oil there is a loss of pressure to mitigate this (as I understand it). And with gas?

The notion of production increase after 2005 is misleading. The issue is really suppressed production in 2005 relative to the other years due to the hurricanes in the Gulf. Dry gas production dropped over 500 Bcf from 2004 to 2005, which is almost exactly the hurricane impact. There was still some modest ongoing loss from hurricanes in 2006. What appears as an increased NG production is simply a recovery from the hurricanes. The numbers from EIA in Bcf:

2003 19099
2004 18591
2005 18074
2006 18531

First 5 months in 2007 so far total: 7756
first 5 of 2004, prior to hurricanes was: 7806

What we really have is a slow drift down in production despite all the increased drilling.

Damage from rapid production in oil wells typically relates to either:

1.) A loss of the gas in solution due to pressure drops (gas solution drive reservoirs) The result is otherwise producible oil with nothing to make it mobile. It just sits there rather than moving toward what should be the lower pressure of the producing well bore. These sorts of depleted reservoirs are often excellent candidates for water flood redevelopment.

2.) Coning of water as the rapidly produced wells draw water from deeper in the produing formation rather than producing water free oil from the top of the formation. (Water drive reservoirs) This has the effect of leaving oil behind and bypassed. In fill drilling can tap into the by passed oil, but drilling new wells is an expensive proposition.

3.) Expanding gas caps as gas comes out of solution in the reservoir. This gas sits on top of the formation where the producing oil wells are now only capable of gas production. Producing that gas causes more problems are pressures drop further (the gas cap stays in place and probably grows with the loss of energy as noted in "1" becoming a real problem. Reduced pressure can also result in finicky pump performance when the pressure drop is very localized restricting or stopping production as a "gas lock" develops in the pump. This is sometimes a big deal with low perm reservoirs. You have to be patient and let the oil come to the well bore.

4.) Overly aggressive attempts at stimulation [ill advised or overly large frac jobs and acid jobs] can lead to "breaking into water as either the well is opened to an adjacent and potentially non oil bearing zone, or a highly permiable but largely vertical streak is opened up [think of a straw going to the bottom of a drink when the good stuff is right on top -- the "Super K" zones that occasionaly are mentioned as one of the issues facing Ghawar are an example of this sort of problem.]

The point is that gas wells typically don't have these issues. Producing a gas well flat out will somtimes leave behind some oil like liquids [and some "gas wells" make quite a lot of these liquids] and overly agrressive stimulation can lead to opening up zones that are not productive just like in an oil well ... but rapid production of a gas well typically doesn't cause the same type or severity of problems as too rapid production does for oil wells.

Hardly a technical explanation, but I hope that helped.

Thanks, RW Reactionary,

Thats a quick, short and sweet summary of overproduction issues.

I think one of the great oil business moneymakers in the next 20 years will be identifing reservoirs that were abandoned early because of overproduction, and going in and reengineering them. There's a ton of Texas and Louisiana salt dome fields and shallow fields in the Ft. Worth basin, Oklahoma and California that need to be reevaluated. I suspect we can get the URR* of these fields up by 10%-20% fairly easily.

Of course, this will only help moderate the peak. Its not the size of the tank, its the size of the tap. Once original pressure has been disipated, its hard to get a huge flow again. And the lifting costs are very high, with a big expense for water treatment and disposal. Land costs are outrageous. I've got several prospects like this that I'm working up.

*URR=Ultimate Recoverable Reserves
Bob Ebersole

Perfectly correct , we are not going to avoid an energy train wreck ,
It probably will be a modern democratic society train wreck ,
miserable third world peasants will not feel a thing
urban service providers living in mega cities will disappears first

I suppose it will stabilize itself eventually at a sustainable level , once the population had adjusted to new (old) numbers and new (old)lifestyles

Long term , there is no problems