<Why We "Waste" Energy: The Second Law of Thermodynamics Explains--UPDATED 8/7 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: August 4, 2007>

25 comments on Updates on the Energy Bills and a New Version of the RPS: There's Still Time to Call Your Member!

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

AlanfromBigEasy on August 4, 2007 - 10:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

My position on offshore drilling and ANWR is:

WAIT !

The oil and gas is not going anywhere.

We will need it to fuel farm tractors in a few decades (two ?)

My unofficial "sign" that it is time to stop waiting ?

When it has been six months since I have seen a Hummer, Expedition or Escalade. Time to start the 10 year clock from decision to first production (and 15 or so years to peak production).

Food is very important to me.

Best Hopes for Rational Planning,

Alan

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
gTrout on August 4, 2007 - 7:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Alan,

I am working up a post on the cost of saving 10% fuel usage by different methods (free market, ethanol, CAFE, rail, etc).

Do you have an estimate on the cost to build out the rail outlined in your 10% savings plan. I skimmed through it looking for costs, but didn't see any.

Or if you have a recommendation of where to look?

I calculated how much the market price would need to increase to cut 10% and the cost would be over 80 billion, most of which leaves the US. (oil companies get a cut, of course, so they will be in favor of the free market solution).

Thanks,

Jon Freise

Analyze Not Fantasize -D. Meadows

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
AlanfromBigEasy on August 5, 2007 - 12:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2007-04a.htm

has an Urban Rail estimate of $135 to $175 billion (note that much of this infrastructure will last 40 years (rolling stock) to over a century (subways).

Freight rail electrification could cost $3 million/mile plus new tracks (figure $150/foot/track). Offsetting this is reduced highway use & wear by heavy trucks. Again, long lived infrastructure.

Rail has elasticity of supply. the worse things get, the more transportation they can provide, and the more people will move close to them.

-10% was a conservative #. At $10/gallon, 80% or more of trucking ton-miles will move to rail and short haul deliveries (unless warehouses move to rail sidings).

Best Hopes,

Alan

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
gTrout on August 5, 2007 - 2:27am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks Alan. I should have specified that the price based demand destruction would be 80 billion per year or 800 billion over 10 years. That makes the electrified rail option pretty attractive.

Jon Freise

Analyze Not Fantasize -D. Meadows

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Aniya on August 5, 2007 - 6:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Jon,

This sounds like a worthy project, thanks for doing it.

It seems like there ought to be a place and/or a way to factor in what amounts to the qualitative aspect of rail electrification, namely - If fueled by re-newables and/or having either primary or redundant capacity via some distributed energy system, then we are looking at being able to ship, say, food ("agricultural products") even under conditions of FF shortages. (In other words, what price to put on something that works when other options do not?)

(Question mark?)

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

25 comments on Updates on the Energy Bills and a New Version of the RPS: There's Still Time to Call Your Member!

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version