67 comments on Aviation and Oil Depletion
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67 comments on Aviation and Oil Depletion
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Is there any indication that airlines are prepared for the likely reversal of the trend towards more flying, as costs increase, and alternatives (high speed rail, video-conferencing etc.) improve? A very high percentage of air travel is quite discretionary - I've already talked my way out of being flown overseas for business (from Australia to the U.S.) twice in the last year, by proving that there was really no need for me to be there physically.
Since Peak Oil is upon us, why would you not want to fly for free around the world? This may be the last chance we regular folk have to fly commercial airlines on intercontinental flights. I would jump at the chance to fly all around the world on my company's dime.
Well I'd like to say it was because I was trying to conserve oil and reduce GHGs, but in reality it was being separated from the family that I was trying to avoid.
Plus the hassle of travelling (I got quite ill from jet-lag-induced sleep deprivation last time I travelled)...business trips rarely give much of a chance to do anything touristy.
Anyway, while I agree airline flights will significantly increase in price over the next few decades, they probably won't get much more expensive as a proportion of disposable income than they were, say, 30 years ago (trying to find some figures, but I'm willing to bet they were at least twice as expensive back then).
There are many contradictory trends in the airline, airport and aircraft industries at present. This in part is because the energy debate is driven by climate change and not by fuel shortage.
In the UK, all our major airports are being expanded to accomodate a future upsurge in air travel which I do not think will materialise.
Higher interest rates in the UK are beginning to bite, and so one of the first responses to this is for the budget airlines / charter business to cut their fares even more as families forego foreign vacations. After a year of this, I imagine we will hear of bankruptcies.
Video-conferencing etc is already being used increasingly - but I think the reason here is that business people are plane sick of flying - crowded air ports, delayed flights, security checks etc. I used to fly a lot - but now just a couple of flights a year.
The manufactureres - Boeing and Airbus - are playing out a high risk end game for supremecy and it looks like Boeing might win. The A380 Superjumbo looks ill-conceived at present while the 787 Dreamliner that has fuel efficiency at the heart of the design looks like a future winner.
My own feeling is that we will be able to continue to fly on kerosene at current volumes for a few decades yet. As petroleum supplies decline, electricity will substitute for ground transportation and aircraft will use an ever increasing proportion of the available liquid fuel. The price of flying will escalate and it will once again become the domain of the rich.
I'd also watch out for The Gulf States (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait) buying foreign airlines - airlines with jet fuel will have a distinct advantage over those that do not .
The legislative bodies around the world are so busy writing mandates forcing us not to drill here or build an effective oil alternative plant there and forcing gas mileage figures on the auto industry; yet I doubt if it has even crossed their daft minds to mandate video conferencing/fax/internet means of conducting business. This is the 21st century for Pete's sake. Why are we still wasting huge amounts of precious oil to endure airport rage, jetlag, and needless expense when we now have the technology to do this stuff from the comfort of our own homes and offices? There ought to be a law!