143 comments on Credit markets: 'Don't panic', they beg
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From Bonddad:
"Thursday, August 9, 2007
Countrywide Financial Reports Major Disruptions
From the WSJ:
Countrywide Financial Corp. faces "unprecedented disruptions" in debt and mortgage-finance markets that could hurt earnings and the company's financial condition, the Calabasas, Calif., lender said in a regulatory filing. (Read the SEC filing)
......
Payments were at least 30 days late on about 20% of "nonprime" mortgages serviced by Countrywide as of June 30, up from 14% a year earlier.
.....
On prime home equity loans, the delinquency rate was 3.7%, up from 1.5% a year before. For all loans, the rate was 5%, up from 3.9%.
In a sign of the growing difficulty in selling loans, Countrywide said that it transferred $1 billion of nonprime mortgages from its "held for sale" category to "held for investment" in the first half. Countrywide marked the value of those loans down to $800 million. It also decided to retain as investments, rather than sell, $700 million of prime home equity loans, marking them down to $600 million. Countrywide has said many of those home equity loans were second-lien mortgages used by people who put little or no money down in buying a house.
Translation.
Countrywide is the largest home lender in terms of loan volume. If they can't et a deal done -- no one can.
Countrywide couldn't sell $1 billion of loans at a decent price. They cut the value
of these loans by 20% when they transferred those loans to their investment portfolio.
Countrywide couldn't sell $700 billion of prime loans, and devalued those by 14%.
That means the going price on both of these investments is probably lower than the devaluation on the balance sheet. Subprime loans are going for less than 80% of face value and prime loans are going for less than 14% of face value.
Simply put -- liquidity just isn't there in the market right now. And the crunch is getting worse because Countrywide couldn't sell prime loans."
"The liquidity just isn't there in the market right now." Disagree - the liquidity is there, but at a price. This isn't a "credit crunch," just a repricing of risk, an event that will indeed deflate the value of "assets" held on financial intermediaries' balance sheets. "Legitimate" credit needs will be met, a demand category that does not include Ninja (no income, no job, no assets) mortgage loans, all the nonsense going on with "private equity" (a retread of the good old LBO days), and other assorted misallocations of capital. Adding up what the Fed, the EU, and other assorted central banks have pumped into the repo market in the last two days comes out to nearly a quarter of a trillion bucks, hopefully not a number that will be annualized!
Retranslation :-)
Countrywide couldn't sell $700 Million of prime loans, and devalued those by 14%.
Subprime loans are going for less than 80% of face value and prime loans are going for less than 86% of face value.