143 comments on Credit markets: 'Don't panic', they beg
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143 comments on Credit markets: 'Don't panic', they beg
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Bob -
I liked to add a few refinements to your comments regarding how some avoidable financial mistakes has caused some serious pain in your lifetime.
Milkin didn't do derivatives, he & his cohorts at Drexel helped establish what we now term the "High Yield" market. (Back in the day, such bonds were termed "Junk Bonds".) Overall, the world is far better off with such a market. That said, the HY bond market is not for the faint of heart. Then again, neither are equity markets... Milkin got in trouble for using "inside" information to trade in & out of these bonds.
The LTCM mess was far, far more serious than most realize. The problem was the massive leverage on the part of LTCM, not the implied leverage in the derivative securities they held. The forced liquidiation of LTCM's large positions would have likely caused markets to "sieze up". For once, Greenspan did something right by organizing an orderly sell off of LTCM's book. (Yes, I made a a few bucks from taking positions off of LTCM. Ah, the good ol' days ...)
The current subprime mess was largely created by the Greenspan FED. The FED knew that a real estate 'bubble' was likely to occur as a result of their decision to lower rates to fight the 'Phantom Menance' of deflation. Moreover, the FED also knowingly chose to NOT act (i.e., regulate) lenders when the no-doc and Alt-A volumes started to explode. The FED could have easily nipped the current subprime mess in the bud. Greenspan "rolled the dice" and now we're all suffering for it.
The big losses on The Street recently have been in "stat-arb" books. It appears that many, many of these books were using VERY similar models. (I did stat-arb for a while in my younger days by the way) The last few days, these books have been "reducing risk" i.e., dumping their positions. A typical stat-arb book uses roughly 4-1 leverage these days and just look at all the volatility unwinding these books is causing. Just imagine what dumping the (up to) 100-1 levered LTCM book might have caused ...
I don't view the FED doing it's job as a violation of any free market principles. Don't apologize.
Not every hedge fund trader/portfolio manager is a "cowboy", though I do a know a few. We PhD guys in the financial markets are a highly varied lot: some of the absolute smartest people I have ever known have PhDs and manage money, but some of the absolute dumbest people I've ever known also have PhDs and also have been allowed to manage money ...
Sonic: You didn't respond to Bob's post at all. What you did write was another of your long winded posts detailing your impressive resume. Obviously Bob is clueless as he didn't do "stat-arb". We are very impressed that you made money from LTCM. Congrats.
BrainT -
Bob wrote " .. funny money derivatives take the whole market down ..." and " ... Michael Milken's derivatives ..."
and ".. now's the third time." as well as alluding to LTCM.
I addressed Milkin, LTCM, and the current mess. So, I did respond to Bob's post, just not every aspect of it. You are wrong, but I'm sure this isn't the first time.
Regarding my "resume", the references to LTCM and stat-arb were intended to communicate to the reader that I have first-hand experience with both subjects -- experience not likely possessed by others who post at and/or read the TOD.
So, what's your problem BrianT? My posts are infrequent and typically short. My post above is somewhat long, but not even the longest in this thread. Do you respond the same when others (like Bob or Robert R. or WT) mention, say, their oil related credentials? Or, when Don S., an econ guy, puts up a long post about economics?
From your posts in this thread you appear to be nothing more than yet another uninformed, conspiracy theory nut.
Sonic: Two points- 1. I consider myself to be a relatively well informed conspiracy nut 2. when responding to my posts you can use my handle-BrianT-no need to label me as the Brain (I don't call you the Silver Spoon baby.)
BrianT, as I said, I'm not particularly educated in financial markets, but that doesn't make me clueless, you arrogant pissant. I'm pretty observant, and expert in a number of areas of which you know nothing. But, more than that, I know my limitations and am willing to freely admit when I'm wrong.
If I were "clueless" I'd just take the Joe Sixpack attitude of dumping my savings in a mutual fund and allowing people to manage my money and charge me exhorbitant commissions, or even not having savings and relying on social security.
But true cluelessness is going around insulting people that you've never met, and assuming that because you have a specialists vocabulary in a particular area, that you are somehow superior to them.
Bob Ebersole
Bob: Relax-the comment was meant as sarcasm. I was insulting Sonic man, not yourself. I have no idea what you mean by a "specialists vocabulary".
Sonic -
What's your take on the dollar right now?
I'll take any dollar anyone will give me. I'm selling carbon credits. Cheap!. Soothe your conscious.