193 comments on DrumBeat: August 12, 2007
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193 comments on DrumBeat: August 12, 2007
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GAIA Host Collective
Economic: -9.00
Social: -8.92
You'll probably notice that a disproportionate number of people come up with results in the libertarian-communist bottom left corner relative to how much that stance is represented by the media, politicians, and our general political discourse. And a disproportionate number of political personalities end up in the top right corner. For instance, John Kerry, The Decider (known to us lowly peons as "George W. Bush), and Tony Blair all come up in the top right corner, even though two of those fellows are ostensibly on the "other side of the spectrum." There really isn't a choice in our political system.
for a long time now in the states the political spectrum has shifted very strongly to the left. that is why you hear people talking about how "free markets solve everything". That is patently false, with natural monopolies the free market fails, with monopolies and cartels the free market fails.
Typically those people who advocate only free market solutions are ignorant of the role government should play with regards to private versus societal values(subsidize items where the societal value is greater than the private, and tax those items where societal cost is greater than private). (like mandatory TB vaccinations - did you know that the reason for the no spitting taboo is because of TB, a highly contagious bacterium which resides in the lung. Someone spitting up wads of TB all the time is basically a disease machine!)
The current thinking is to slam society with the costs, and privatize the gain. Look at what it has gotten china, a ruined environment and country which will take decades to clean up.
If you have designed a TB vaccination you should let the WHO know. As of now we don't have one...
Sure we do - it's just not generally used in the US.
BCG Vaccine
I work with a lot of foreign born medical personnel who have received it.
TB was eliminated from the population shortly after antibiotics were discovered.
the societal prohibition against spitting lives on however, and is especially prevalent in countries were TB exists, but is not always treated.
Google MDR tuberculosis and XDR tuberculosis.
Also, please remember that:
1. People are food to disease. Disease feeds on us. The larger the human population, the more disease will seek to eat us, the larger the disease population.
2. The more closely packed together humans are, all other things being equal, the easier it is for disease to spread.
3. Disease, our only remaining natural predators, are fought off preventively through hygiene with soap, pumped water, heated water, cooking, extermination of disease vectors (rats, mosquitos) and reactively with antibiotics, healthcare, and waste disposal. All are accomplished with cheap energy to meet the needs of 6.7 billion people.
When it becomes harder to treat or prevent infection, it won't just be a breakout of XDR TB, it will include typhoid, cholera, meningitis, flu, various hemorrhagic fevers, dysentery, hepatitis, and even plague, all of which are still being ineffectively kept in check.
How effectively will we fight disease as cheap energy declines? And how will unfolding disease outbreaks affect our ability to harness more energy?
Indeed, I think disease will have a far far bigger role to play in any sort of population reduction as the result of declining oil supplies than starvation from declining food production. Especially as third world countries become increasing urbanised, living densely in horribly unhygenic slums, it will take nothing short of a miracle to keep disease rates from skyrocketing in the coming decades. It may well be enough to keep the maximum global population as low as 8 billion (as opposed to the currently projected 9-10 billion from various organisations). While this might be better for the planet, it will be nothing short of devastating for those living in such conditions.
simply put, we wont, the couple you name (typhoid, cholera) will be the worst. dehydration is the biggest killer. Remember to bring water to a boil and then let it cool to destroy pathogens.
Uhhhhh...
I work in a hospital in Silicon Valley (not the county facility)and we are seeing an increase in TB cases.
Shortly after is the key word. TB was not entirely eliminated in all countries, however its prevalence was reduced to such an extent that the current couple generations have nil risk of contracting it. The same with smallpox. As to current trends, moving from 0 to 1 or 2 cases a year is bad(of the super duper bad TB), but compared to previous ages when sanatoriums were used to ease the suffering of thousands upon thousands I will keep the modern world thankyou.
And the Xtreme TB and super extreme drug resistent TB are caused by antibiotic administration which is not 100% effective (the same resistance eventually occurs with all bacteria)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis#history seems to back me up nearly 100%
this obviously only applies to countries where streptomycin is available in large amounts and cheaply to boot. wiki says 2 billion people currently have TB, with pretty much none in 1st world nations.
Smallpox and TB are not at all "the same". Smallpox has been eliminated in the population. TB has not and is actually re surging. Here. In the first world.
It is not simply antibiotic administration that causes resistance. It is also patients that are not compliant with treatment. Antibiotics are prescribed for a certain period of time for a reason, but many people stop taking them when they feel better, not realizing that the infection has not been eliminated.
You obviously don't work in the medical field, at least not clinically.
Source: World Health Organization
Huh? "[T]he political spectrum has shifted very strongly to the left" and "free markets solve everything" are to me incompatible - it's usually those on the left-side of the political spectrum that favour more government regulation and higher taxes to curb the excesses of laissez-faire capitalism. Of course the political spectrum has never truly been 1-dimensional anyway, but what I would describe it as is a simultaneous move towards neo-liberalism and neo-conservatism, which often occur as two sides of the same coin.
My personal position is that its not the amount of regulation and taxation that's the problem - it's the manner in which its done. i.e. I'd like to see far higher taxes on consumption and pollution (including GHG pollution), but OTOH lower income and payroll taxes. I'd argue for more competitivity regulation (to prevent monolithic companies from getting too powerful and effectively suppressing innovation to protect their own interests), and more environmental regulation, but perhaps less regulation in other areas such as price controls, zoning (where businesses are allowed to operate), workplace requirements that tend to unfairly burden small businesses and start-up companies etc. etc.
I'd also take the general attitude that before making any activity outright illegal, at least give businesses and consumers a chance to change behaviour on their own first, with tax incentives and education campaigns etc. If there's no improvement within a certain time-period, then enforce legislation.
I've no idea where all that puts me on the political spectrum!
Wiz, you just don't get it. If there is no improvement in a a certain time period its because people don't want to live that way.
And if people don't want to live that way you can't force them to with legislation. Not in a democracy. The voters will vote for the policies they like, not what's best for them.
And don't start with that crap about how people want what's best for them. Cause we all know that F150s and McMansions are what they want.
We have legislation that prevents people from smoking in clubs and restaurants. And guess what, they don't - they day after the legislation came into effect, clubs and restaurants went from smoke-filled and smelly to clean and odour-free. Most people (and even corporations) are law-abiding most of the time, whether you believe so or otherwise.
People only follow the laws they want to follow. Other wise they break the laws or get them changed.
What idiot will vote for a law (or politician) that is against their own self interest?!? Would you? Would you vote for higher energy taxes if you didn't know or care about PO?
Most people are law abiding most of the time because the laws are set up to accommodate the majority of them. If a majority didn't want a ban on smoking there wouldn't be a ban on smoking.
That is the nature of a democracy. Whatever the majority of people want is reflected in the laws. You cannot force them to live in a manner inconsistent with their desires.
I can't understand why I even have to explain this to you.
Who said I was talking about legislation that would affect the majority?
The sorts of the legislation I was primarily concerned with are those preventing a minority of corporations (who don't vote) from causing excessive environmental damage.
But here's example of why you're wrong anyway: the incumbent party here is proposing a ban on incandescent light bulbs. Now that does affect the majority - most people want the cheapest and most convenient products they can buy, and this stops them. But this ban isn't likely to make the slightest dint in their vote.
The political mood is moving fast enough that within a few years, a government will safely be able propose a law to ban cars with poor fuel economy without risk of voter backlash (indeed, the backlash even now would be minimal - the resistance to such proposals in the U.S. is coming from auto-manufactures, not from pollers). Even though if this means voters won't be able to drive Hummers anymore.
Now personally, I'm against either of those bans: I don't see any need to actually ban incandescent light bulbs or low-fuel-economy cars outright: there are occasions where they make sense. But once the cost of externalities is properly priced in, and fuel is more sensibly priced, their use will drop off, and they eventually may simply become uneconomical to produce.
And yes, I would vote for higher energy taxes (w/ lower income taxes), even if I didn't know about PO, entirely out of self-interest. For a start, I do know about climate change, and don't want to be living, or my kids to be living on an overheated planet. On top of that, I stand to benefit directly, because I already make effects to reduce my energy usage, so the accompanying income tax cuts will go towards paying off the mortgage, as opposed to being necessary to allow me to keep wasting unnecessary energy. It's not that hard to convince people that you're going to give them an extra $50 a week in tax cuts, but raise petrol and electricity prices such that they'll cost the average punter an extra $50 a week. Do they same thing 4 years in a row, and you will start to see people taking energy conservation quite seriously, once they realise how much they stand to profit from it.
What would be the point of taxing consumption if it doesn't eafect the majority?
No, here's why I am right anyway. The majority of people want to ban incadescent bulbs (just like the majority of people wanted that smoking ban). Its a feel good measure that doesn't impact their lives in an signifigant way. That's why the incumbent party is pushing it. It's popular.
Agian you are not going to get people to support unpopular laws. Its in the very nature of a democracy. I don't understand why we are arguing this point.
And I would make a point of introducing taxes on energy in a way that "doesn't impact...lives in a significant way", such as my $50/week in income tax cuts, to offset expected $50/week increase in energy prices.
I agree that trying to introduce laws that are obviously going to be massively unpopular is futile and will likely get you booted out of government - it may well happen to the current government here with their recent workplace laws. So you do it gradually, and in tandem with careful advertising to sell it as a positive thing for most people. The "majority" won't be significantly impacted by the change, but the high-energy users will be, encouraging them to use less. The majority will see soon enough that they stand to gain significantly if they take up energy conservation measures.
Then don't expect to make any sort of signifigant impact on energy consumption either.
And if you can pull that off (doubtful look at the astonishing success efforts at reducing CO2 has been) then you don't need to enforce the changes via legislation which was the point I objected to way up at the top of this thread.
I don't expect the changes to make a significant impact...initially. The changes will accumulate over time as you gradually increase the taxes and people become more and more aware of the methods and advantages of saving energy.
If after, say, 4 or 5 years, the expected savings in energy consumption weren't happening fast enough, you could look at specific legislation to outlaw particularly noticeable forms of energy wastage.
However, in reality it's not going to happen like that. Governments inevitably seem to prefer to legislate first, think later. So we will have laws banning this, mandating that, and burying everything else in red tape. I'd love to think voters would prefer to vote in governments that promised smarter tax reform as opposed to simply more regulation and legislation, but I've seen little evidence of that.
Indeed, higher prices are going to happen anyway (certainly with oil), so the taxation plan isn't strictly necessary - I see the main advantage in being able to speed up and smooth out the process.
And that'd be a great plan if it was 1977 instead of 2007.
But simple conservation on such a minor scale as you are advocating will do nothing.
There are plenty of regions on the globe that would be glad to use any barrel of oil you would save.
OK, for a start, you only need to see a 3% annual decrease in oil/gas consumption to achieve nearly 50% over 20 years, which I personally suspect will be more than sufficient to match expected oil import decline rates anyway - one way or another, high-use oil-importing nations will be forced to cut their usage by about 50% in this time period, the taxation proposal is just a way of encouraging consumers to start early, hopefully smoothing out the decline.
As far as what other regions on the globe do - personally I suspect America will be one of the last nations on the planet that will try to introduce a taxation system to help put downward pressure on demand (the IEA has already recommended it, and from what I've read China & India are both aware of the risks of oil depletion, and how vulnerable their rapidly growing economies are).
So in all probability it will be America that will be desperately grabbing all those extra barrels of oil saved by European and Asian nations, until imports start dropping so quickly that no amount of smooth mitigation is possible.
Having done the test, I get:
Economic Left/Right: -1.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.64
However quite a few of the questions related to economic liberalism were so skewed that I don't think -1.75 accurately reflects my personal view: I'd prefer to see 0, maybe even a tiny bit positive.
economics indicates that if private value and private cost are different than the societal cost, then the government must step in to prevent market failures.
this includes vaccines, police, fire dept, health care, perhaps education, pollution, contract rights, and so forth.
most people don't understand how the incidence of tax affects them, if there is a tax on pollution (pigovean or rights based) the tax will still be distributed between the buyers and sellers of a good. Tax incidence depends on elasticity of supply and demand, with the higher elasticity (the more nessisary a good is, the lower the elasticity) items being spared the greater tax incidence. (taxes on cigs for example, hurt the cig companies more than consumers because consumers, with some effort, can simply quit to stop paying for cigs!) However taxes on food impact buyers more than sellers. Taxes also reduce the size of a market, which is bad.
Most republicans are so far left? right? that they believe in free market everything, where all costs are externalized. In this manner society suffers, because goods with higher societal value than indivdual value are not produced as the societally efficient level.
In general taxes on negative externalities should be used to fund positive externalities, and should be applied with great discretion as to not shrink the market size by a great deal.
a nicer thing to think about is the in the long run everything is more elastic (change can occur) this allows the producer and consumer to alter their habits, IF THE taxes are changed sufficiently in the past. Europe and it's gas taxes are strong evidence that a minimum of probably 5-10 years is needed before real gains are reached from gas taxation.
You confuse "left" with "liberal", where "liberal" essentially means "free-market fundamentalist". Hillary is a liberal, Tom Friedman is a liberal, John Kerry is a liberal, ditto Clinton and Gore. Double ditto Bush and the neos - they are beyond fundamentalists; they are radicals. A person's worth is, well, his net worth.
But that's not "left" in any sense. It's corporate, authoritarian and ultimately fascist or totalitarian.
One of the best examples of this genre is Ben Friedman's book "Moral Consequences of Economic Growth". Thomas Frank, in "One Market Under God" doesn't address Ben Friedman, but takes on the whole uber-meme that is free-market fundamentalism.
Why did the bridge collapse? Because it wasn't privately owned and operated, etc....
The "left" in a political sense means "those who support varying degrees of social or political or economic change designed to promote the public welfare". That DOES get coopted - even a developer of a for-profit prison will talk about how he is promoting public welfare. Corporations always lie, but that is a different story.
cfm in Gray, ME