179 comments on DrumBeat: August 13, 2007
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179 comments on DrumBeat: August 13, 2007
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As of 11AM EDT, Invest 90L...Now, Tropical Depression FOUR.
They have been using the term "vigorous" alot associated with this one.
NOAA advisories on FOUR
And here's the Reuters story:
Storm forming over Atlantic
I'm no geologist, but I can read a weather map.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2865#comment-225273
The door is open for a while.
I was going to buy oil futures today but it's getting too close to the 22nd of the month, when fundamentals rarely drive the price.
Last night, this was the first threat this year that the local weather people took seriously as "a possibility".
Best Hopes for High Shear Winds,
Alan
Sorry Alan not this time..
Best hopes for the eastern seaboard having done sensible construction... But thats unlikely... Historically these storms hammer hard when developing this strong.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2004_charts/at200...
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2004_charts/at200...
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1992_charts/at199...
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1989_charts/at198...
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1935_charts/at193...
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1928_charts/at192...
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1996_charts/at199...
Worst Case 60mph forward movement slamming into NYC.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1938_charts/at193...
Cape Verde storms always worried me. I posted yesterday I grew up in the Flordia Keys.. They suck and usually rip things apart...
Bermuda High is working against us this year and EXPLOSIVE heat in the oceans.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif And that is SCARY!! its so favorable...
Somebody is going to get hurt its just a matter of where the wobble is going. Right now the NHC places it hurricane heading just south of Haiti.. We will see how that goes there is still quite a bit of time while it moves this way.
Give Jeff Masters blog a look and then start placing bets on 100$ oil.
While you are at it, take a look at the Tropical Discussion link. They note this:
---
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
---
That storm could reach U.S. landfall before TS #4, which is still out in the Atlantic. That depends on the track, of course. It's worth noting that the weather station at Key West has been reporting record low minimum temperatures for a couple of weeks now. If that data is representative of warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, this little storm could pop into something big in a hurry.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/ir2-l.jpg
E. Swanson
Jeff Master's (and others) don't believe it could develop beyond a weak TD (*at this point*, of course).
However, if it slows over that nice warm water...who knows.
With the new data and Hunter data, I imagine Jeff will be revising his comments shortly.
NOAA says Hurricane by Friday Morning