The Oil Drum

I asked the following question a few months ago:

A man is driving a car for two laps on a one mile circular track. He averaged 30 mph on the first one mile lap. How fast does he have to drive on the second lap to average 60 mph on both laps? The answer is infinitely fast, because it is really a time question. A average speed of 60 mph over a distance of two miles takes two minutes, but the first lap consumed two minutes, so it is physically impossible for him to drive fast enough on the second lap to average 60 mph on both laps.

I used this analogy in regard to the Texas oil production peak and decline. From 1972 to 1981, nominal oil prices went up by about 1,000% and the industry responded with the biggest drilling boom in history, which resulted in a decline in production from 3.5 mbpd in 1972 to 2.5 mbpd in 1982.

In other words, how fast did Texas have to drill in order to keep oil production rising? The answer is that it appears to be physically impossible.

We have seen a similar situation in the North Sea, where we have seen a crude oil production decline rate of about 5% per year since 1999 while oil prices have increased at about 18% per year.

IMO, Saudi Arabia--which is currently showing lower crude oil production in response to higher oil prices and increased drilling activity--is at about the same stage of depletion as Texas in the Seventies.

While we can make money finding smaller oil fields, the case histories and mathematical models suggest that we will not be able to increase our aggregate conventional oil production, i.e., the function of oil companies in post-peak regions is to slow the rate of decline.

So, an interesting question would be to determine what energy sources will show increasing flow rates of net energy, with more investment.

BTW, in my opinion, we are looking at years, probably decades, declining aggregate net energy flow rates, until such time that the rate of increase in alternative/non-conventional energy production equals the rate of decline (BTU's per year) in conventional energy production.