It'll hit Cozumel head on.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cozumel

Cozumel has 75k people on it, its 12 miles to the coast, and the high point on the island is 15m. How much storm surge is expected with a 914mb core pressure? Is the tide in or out?

I am suddenly feeling a little sick and wishing I hadn't Googled that ...

It's going to hit far south of Cozumel. It is actually aimed directly at the capital of Quintana Roo, Chetumal.

I was looking at an older path projection. Sorry for the excitement ...