I believe you are right Bob. I would like to add that if Russia does have excess oil capicity to export, they will probably use it to supply consuming members of the SCO, not members of NATO. More political 'above ground' effects showing up. This practice will not effect WTs ELM overall numbers but could increase political and economic tensions dramatically between members of the SCO and Nato.
Considering the horror and distruction cause by the German invasion of the Soviet Union 64 years ago, I wouldn't doubt there is a little lingering resentment making it easier to cut the Germans first.
That's why the Iraq war is going to be our Achille's heel going forward. With the two million deaths attributed to the US/UN embargo in the 1990s and the deaths attributable to this war, as soon as the troops leave we'll never get another drop of Iraqi oil.They'll just choose to do business with the Chinese or Pakistani's first.
The world energy dynamic has totally changed as we peak in production of liquid hydrocarbons. Demand has begun to exceed supply for the last couple of years, oil prices trending up without a big fall just proves the point. If there were a cheap substitute news of the substitute would already be circulating in the crowd that hangs out at TOD. Of course absence of news or a rumor isn't scientific proof, but its a damn good indicator.
Somehow the military industrial complex cheerleaders don't recognise that our past and ongoing behaviour counts. If I were a Moslem in the Middle East I'd be forced to conclude that the US hates Islam. We unswervingly support the most agressive elements of Israeli foreign policy and commit what can only be discribed as genocide, and that's not going to count in our business dealings with them? For the first time in our history except the extermination of our Indian tribes we openly support and encourage torture and they're not supposed to notice?
Once our Army leaves Iraq I expect an embargo. Its the only way the world can defang the US military. That's why we have to start mitigation now, and its going to have to be on a personal basis because our government is so deceptive, paralised and disfuntional. Bob Ebersole
Its the only way the world can defang the US military.
Glad to see Americans coming around to this perspective.
American unilateralism and the misguided attempt to export the American way of life at the end of a rifle does nothing more than eliminate any last vestige of sympathy for America and her problems.
After 9-11 a French newspaper declared "we are all Americans now." America's response was ridicule and rejection.
The current headlines should read "we are all Venzeluan's now." Better that then suffer the fate of the Iraqui people at the hands of Saddham Bush: 60,000 lives and still counting.
A lot of Americans are dismayed at what the bastards are doing. I thought of leaving the country when Bush was reelected, but I decided it would be better to stay here and work to defeat the scumbags.
"Glad to see Americans coming around to this perspective."
Dear New Account -
I don't know where you live, presumably outside the U.S. To me, your comment seems typical of people who don't realize how much deeply felt opposition there is to this Administration and it's policies.
Problem is, the Bush Administration and their supporters have perfected the "shout louder" strategy of so-called public discourse. That has made it exceedingly difficult for dissent to be seen and heard.
The Bush administration is an embarrassment to every American, with the exception of our disloyal Christian Right. Please don't imagine he speaks for us - 75% of us would like him out of office next Monday if not sooner.
9/11 was a terrible event brought on by the Bush administration's stupidity at the very least and perhaps studied indifference to the deaths of a few of the "little people" in order to further their ends.
We had a golden chance to declare a new age on 9/12/2001. Instead we set the clock back a hundred years so George could have his chance at the so called "Great Game".
The character the Bush administration has displayed is more appropriate for a rickety west African kleptocracy than the world's last surviving super power.
Absolutely Bob, when a government fails to act in the best interests of 98% of its constituents, how can it claim legitimacy? As far as I can tell our government is now serving the interests of the American elite (2%) and the multinational corporations...one and the same thing. To make matters worse the opinion of ex-cia analyst Ray Mcgovern is that Rove stepped down because he doesnt want to be around to explain why we invaded Iran. Tony Snow is reportedly leaving for the same reason. Seems that Cheney is going to get his way once again.
The other explanation is that Rove was thrown off the sleigh to the following pack of wolves. They may think he's about to get indicted for the CIA leak.
I don't know what we're going to do. Its too late for an impeachment, if you recall, Watergate took more than a year and those crazies are talking about tactical nukes in Iran now. In my more paranoid moments I think the want to declare martial law and stop the election, because they'll be called to justice for war crimes, and nukeing Iran would give them the justification.
I just hope we didn't permanently loose the Republic when Gore failed to contest the Florida vote.
This sentiment gets such a pass. We let him walk away, and all the transgressions he has committed become precident.
They say the next congress will get nothing done in the busy election season. Hogwash. Turn up the dial on investigations regarding anything he has done innaapropriatly and for gawd's sake, please get into writing the exact powers and authorities of the Vice President's office.
I don't care if the investigations and possible trials last well into Shrub's retirement. Pull him back from Paraguay or wherever the hell he slinks off to and ride his ass as long as it takes to clear his mess up.
It's not too late for impeachment. Impeachment takes precedence over all other business in Congress. And shutting down all other business in Congress would be better than continuing Business As Usual - a nice side benefit. The real reason we won't get impeachment is that Democrats fundamentally agree with Republicans in the defacto class warfare/coup that is going on.
I just purchased some solar PV today and had the pleasure of myself and the vendor being run through a terrorist database as part of the process. It's my @#$% money - why does the bank have to play informant? Because both Democrats and Republicans in the last days of this empire agree on the clampdown; it's required for the transition to serious tyranny where no transactions will be allowed except between approved entities.
We won't get impeachment because Democrats would have to appear like they were serious about it when they are serious about not doing it because they want the powers. Time is not the problem.
You can impeach officeholders after they leave office. The purpose is to allow criminal prosecution for actions taken under the color of authority.
Exactly right, good for you. This is yet one more thing about our constitution that has been conveniently left untaught and ignored, so most Americans don't know about it.
Article I Section 3
Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.
Rove's potential indictment hinges on some small game played in Alabama over a House seat if I recall correctly. I do so hope that is what is happening, and now if the Democrats would only find the nerve to do what is needed with the rest of them.
If the current crop of Congresscritters were in charge in 1944 our soldiers would never have climbed those cliffs at Normandy ... "Too dangerous!" "We'll take casualties!" "Maybe the Nazis will get nicer as their regime ages!"
Here I have to reveal a trade secret, which punctures the mystique of intelligence analysis. Generally speaking, 80 percent of the information one needs to form judgments on key intelligence targets or issues is available in open media.
Interesting, this pretty much confirms my assumptions. This also confirms that a high quality aggregator of open source + expert analysis like The Oil Drum is a pretty good resource indeed.
I've written a dozen letters to my Senators about this over the last six months and still the war preparations continue.
Our inevitable war with Iran will ride in on the back of a false flag operation in the continental United States. Yes, the Bush administration is low enough to kill some of our own and blame it on outsiders so we can attack the Iranians.
We fought fascism to its death in 1945 ... only to take up the mantle ourselves sixty years later.
Considering the horror and distruction cause by the German invasion of the Soviet Union
I think that government in Russia sees WW2 as Nazi invasion. Currently Germany is a major economic partner for Russia (probably the biggest economic partner). Putin's relation with previous German chancellor were best ever. I do not think there is any resentment toward Germany.
It's simply an economic actions. I doubt there is any politics or personal feelings involved.
Germany is not doing a thing for Russia that China cannot do more cheaply. Replacing Germany as a major trading partner with China would not be a real big deal. China is willing to sign long term oil/gas deals with Russia...the same deals that Germany and the remainder of Western Europe are complaining about.
I do not think that engineering in China is comparable to German, but that's just an opinion.
Russia is selling it's energy to both Germany and China now. At this point the party that pays the highest price will get the energy and goods will be bought from the company/country that has the lowest price. But say in case of trains I do not think that China can currently compete with Siemens. For subway building Russia buys some specialized machinery from Germany (I presume becasue it's the best equipment for the money). And so on.
My only point was that the discussed action was not political but economical.
But maybe Russia needs to consider its relationship with Germany in light of Germany's power in the EU and NATO. If the US is really engaged in an imperialist scheme to encircle Russia, then Germany must cooperate with the US on everything everywhere. Obviously this is not quite the case right now, and the establishment of a permanent EU dependence on Russian energy, facilitated by Germany, can threaten the viability of a US-run NATO, which really should have been retired when the Cold War ended.
82% of the world's oil production is supplied by national oil companies, not big oil companies. And if you think that the 75% of consumption in the world that is supplied by refining that oil can be replaced or substituted overnight, then you've been smoking unrepentantcowboy's products.
While you are at it, you might as well check out the ownership of the big multinational oil companies. You will find that they are 3/4ths owned by institutional investors, i.e. pension funds, mutual funds,and hedge funds. That's the greedy bastards you just criticised, all of us. Its really easy for people to scapegoat and demonise other people instead of looking in the mirror.
Go right ahead and keep on your merry, self deluding track. But don't say I didn't warn you.
Bob Ebersole
You are making the mistake of assuming that the people running the NOCs are not as greedy as those running the IOCs. OK, in economic terms it is not called greed but "persuing-self-interest-that-brings-to-common-good", same thing.
The difference in ownership is only relevant from political perspective - a NOC serves as a guarantee that the pie is shared within a certain economic and political circle. Essentially NOCs are the way poorer countries protect their resources by being taken over by IOCs on the Wall Street. All IOCs are based in the same countries that also control the world financial markets... Hardly a coincidence IMO.
ARAMCO,
the worlds largest producer and the home company of the Saudi Kings is a National Oil Company. So is Lukoil, the Russian oil company and the world's second largest producer. Royal Dutch Shell is owned 25% by the British Royals, and 25% by the Dutch Royals. PDVSA is the oil company of Venezuela, the country with the second highest reserves after the Saudis, is a national oil company.SINOPAK, the China Company that sells all of the Chinese oil products, is a national oil company. AEGIP is the Italian national oil company.
In US refining, CITGO is owned by PDVSA. Motiva and Excelron, are 25% owned by the Saudis. You seem to forget that the Saudi's owned 1/2 of Texaco's Refining at the time of the merger with Chevron.
LevinK, you are talking through your hat. Free markets don't exist in world oil except in the US, Canada and parts of Western Europe like the North Sea. Like I said, its over 4/5ths National Oil Companies, and 3/4ths of the "free market" oil companies are owned by mutual funds and pension funds. If you want to scapegoat someone, go look in the mirror.
Bob Ebersole
I have no idea what caused the tone of your response. Neither where you got the idea I'm "scapegoating" someone. The funny thing is that you are not arguing me and essentially we are saying the same things.
I guess that I consider labeling behaviour as greedy to be a moral criticism, part of the eternal self righteousness that says a hardware store can mark up a screw from a penny cost to a nickle sales price, but that oil producers can't make a profit when they take enormous risks.
I don't work for big oil companies and I am far from their greatest fan, yet I get tarred and feathered with the same brush and sack of feathers.
Bob Ebersole
This is a complex discussion. On one hand yes, anybody (not just the oil companies) should be allowed to be rewarded for the risks they take.
On the other hand there are those lines that don't need to be crossed. And we are supposed to have mechanisms to counter it when people/corporations are crossing the lines - when they are harming the common good for their self-interest.
My "greed" labeling is based on a thing I consider a major flaw of conventional economic theories... They always assume that "normal" greed is good and that the players will play by the written and non-written rules and all will be happy and well. While in practice this rarely happens so... What happens in reality is that by uncritically endorsing the "normal" greed we have created a very weak ethics in which millions of people are encouraged to cross millions of visible and invisible lines every day... Should we be surprised by the outcomes?
Now if I am asked to say whether the national or private oil Co's are harming the common good, I'm more inclined to say yes than no:
1) First they are (a vital) part of the common establishment which is currently running the empire we live in and is slowly turning it into a fully functional police state
2) As energy companies they should be the first to ring the bells of oil depletion and the externalities FFs are causing... I know it takes quite a moral strength to do that, but it is in fact their duty to inform the public about what the product they are selling will/may cause to the society. And no, couple of ads on the TV don't do it; it will take the only thing that works in this country - lobbying and some serious money spent so that we can fix these problems. And they know it.
Of course they should be ringing the alarm bells. But big oil companies are made up of people, and most people do not have the wit to understand the situation.And of the ones that do, probably 3/4ths are either in denial or lack moral fiber. I'd like you to consider that M.King Hubbert did his work on Shell's payroll. A number of the people here work in the oil and gas business, and a number who are a lot more influential than I are doing some pretty loud ringing-I'm talking about gentlemen like Matt Simmons and Boone Pickens, who spread the message every day, or Robert Rapier who is the go to guy now for the media on cellusitic ethanol, or WesTexas who has gotten on TV and the radio a number of times, Euan Mearns, SeismoBob, oilrigmedic, mudlogger-and Im sure I'm leaving plenty off.
And we're not all greedy,either.Yesterday on Drumbeat I gave away 3 excellent tertiary development prospects, and I did it for a reason. I want some geologists around here to go get them and start making some more. If they want to hire me as a land consultant and pay me a little override, I sure wouldn't turn it down and can save them months (hint,hint) but, they aren't B.S. they are in the middle of what has been the best producing area of the U.S. and that's where you should look for real tertiary development deals. But, a major oil company can't make money on those kind of deals, too much overhead, and an independent can get really fat. but, the other reason I did it is I am very serious about the alarm I'm trying to raise, if we don't get domestic production up, and consumption down, the US as we know it is doomed. And if we don't get climate change in hand, the world is doomed.
When you trash mouth the oil business you are trashing the people who have brought you gasoline for years at less than the price of bottled water at the same convenience store. People who have made it possible for the modern world to have a population problem. And as Robert has said before, most of them are good, community minded, hard working and try to be patriotic and good citizens of the world. Yes, we have some sociopaths and arrogant fools that manipulate the political process.
Wouldn't you rather have the oil business people on your side? I suspect most of them will be if you don't alienate them and threaten them with unjust taxes and impossible to meet environmental objections. For example, the three projects I mentioned are very well suited for CO2 tertiary development. The Houston area is the biggest concentration of CO2 producing industry in the world. Is Gaia trying to whisper a little in your ear? How about a little synergy and synchronisity people!
Come to the ASPO-USA Conference October 17-20th in Houston. Jim Baldauf, the President of ASPO, and an old enviromental activist is in the oil business. He's been working hard to get industry coverage and participation. But please don't blow it with the angry accusations of greed or malice. That kind of stuff doesnt work-look at Greenpeace. Come, be open minded and lets see what we can actually accomplish.
Again I don't know why you thought that I was picking on the oilcos. I suspect I hit an open wound with the greed remark, but mind you if I was trying to pick on them I would have been way more specific, and much more expressive too.
Like I said I raised the greed question just to point out that sometimes maximizing the self-interest turns into pure greed, and what is even worse - sometimes people are unable to see how this happens.
Personally I don't think that oil companies are worse or any different for that matter than any other companies in this country. The overwhelming majority of the people working in them are good people doing their job with good intentions with a justified dignity they are helping the society.
And here lies the beginning of the problem I think - even though most people in a organisation may mean well in their own world, on a systematic level their actions may lead to adverse effects. The road to hell is paved with good intentions they say... Here are some chains of unintended consequences:
1) Oil people doing their job well -> US becoming a major oil producing country -> US building Suburbia and getting stuck in it -> Climate Change and Oil Wars ahead
or,
2) People wanting affordable houses -> Banks giving easier and easier loans -> Credit crunch/recession/inflation ahead
3) People chasing American Dream and free enterprise -> First comers getting rich -> US building Corpotocracy -> US maintaing Corpotocracy and its supporting Empire by exploiting the Third World and trashing the environment
All of these chains of events had "good intentions" at their initial step. But somewhere in the chain of events it turned in the wrong direction. The people at the top who are supposed to see the big picture, and saw what was happening were supposed to "ring the bell" and stop it. Did they?
I hope you see my point. You and the people around you are doing what you can, but at the higher levels things obviously are rotten... and the higher you go the more it smells. The funny thing is that I believe to huge extent even those at the higher levels like CEOs are stuck with the status quo - you know shareholders, expensive wives etc. :)
Of course good intentions turn bad, often. The problem is that we as humans are meant to examine our own behavior and the effects we have on the world, and judge ourselves. If you want to consider that the will of God, fine or just some quirk in our software.But, the unexamined life is not woth living...and where did I hear that before?
Do you think that Osama Ben Laden started out wishing to be a monster? And the answer is of course not. He was an idealistic young man who thought he found some kind of easy answer in the Quran so he could live his life following Allah's will. Unfortunately, he had enough money and attracted enough syncopants that he ended up with his horrible ideas enforced as well as the good ones. He wanted to help his fellows free themselves from the Russian invasion, and when they were whipped decided to go after the Western countries who were destroying the purity and strenghth of following God's will (That's the meaning of Islam) and the next thing you know, he's a monster. But have you looked at the joy and happiness in his eyes on the tapes?
Of course he's an extreme example, but we see others all the time. Confucious said that we need to examine our lives by the effect we have on others, and most no shit spiritual leaders rather than monsters say the same thing. I'm pretty much a true agnostic-without knowledge-but I've studied this kind of thing for many years, 12 hours of theology and 15 of philosophy at a Catholic Liberal Arts University, plus read a whole bunch and prayed a whole bunch. As I said, I've concluded I'm without knowledge, But what happened to Ben Ladin happens to others, and the very bright Type A young men who grow up to become board members and CEO's of major corporations are no different. They are mostly surrounded by syncopants (thats ass kissers in Texan) who reenforce their bad ideas as well as their good ones. This happens to political leaders,too. Dick Cheney didn't wake up and say "I'm going to be out of control and threaten the whole world while destroying the United States." But by his failure in self-examination in light of the effect he has on others, that's whats happened.
One thing about shocking events, and we have several in the course of any human life-is that its a wake-up call to examine our own behaviour and a call to change. That's global warming and the peak. And one of the strands that I've tried to separate and reweave is that I need to change my behaviour first, to try to conserve personally. And another is that I'm supposed to try to really hear what someone else is saying and try to act accordingly. That no matter the cause of conflict, I'm wrong when I engage in it. That's why I make these pleas to listen to each other, to try to see our commonality and work together.
This is an open website, and we've got people visiting here for all kinds of reason. From the people who just want to figure out the next stock play, to people who just want to sell you something, to people who want to convert others to a point of view and others who want knowledge or actually have a good solution or two. The bright ones often hang out, and I have real hopes we can find a solution so that the human race can live another few minutes for the next crisis. i do hope we can all be courteous, but i can be baited into reacting too, as you probably noticed on this thread. I apologise for being a little sensitive. But i'd like an apology for stereotyping oil business people.
Bob, I'm sorry that I took a cheap shot by associating oil businessmen with greed. I can assure you that I did not mean it being directed against oil people in particular, just a general rant against the status quo and all those little compromises paving the road to hell... And noone is insured against taking that road - be it an oil company executive, politician or a burger flipper. Even I myself am currently participating in a goverment project which I can easily see is wasting millions of taxpayer's money (like, unfortunately most of our gov projects do for a whole complex of reasons). I am not exactly proud of it but I can only hope that by doing my little part right I could at least reduce the damage, if not make things right.
With all the rest you said I can only agree and have little to add. If only we had not slept through all the self-examination classes of life we'd be living in a much different world now.
In all of your examples, the real problem is that the government didn't do its job. It is the government that is supposed to step in and limit the harm when the "invisible hand" fails to keep things in check as it is magically supposed to.
The reason why we didn't get effective government intervention is because the US is in thrall to an anti-government ideology. We as a society systematically devalue public goods and overvalue private goods. The corporations bear a lot of blame for this, but media, education and even the arts and religion are also complicit. It is pervasive and systematic, and as a result we have now a horribly dysfunctional government.
To point out what I mean, just consider that to advocate public policies that would be considered mainstream in many European countries (e.g.: high gasoline taxes, subsidized development of rail transport, universal health care) would put one well outside the mainstream of both major parties. Indeed, one advocating such policies could hardly even get a hearing, you are dismissed as being a leftie extremist.
The thing is, in many other countries, that's not the leftie extremist position, that's the CENTRIST position. The real lefties go quite a bit farther than that.
Most Americans have no idea how extremist their country has really become over the past few decades.
Royal Dutch Shell is owned 25% by the British Royals, and 25% by the Dutch Royals
SNAAARRRRRLLLL!!!!
Tosh. Schtuff Und Nonsenz. Bull-poo. Bob, I've been amused & enlightened by your postings on the US Independent sector, but I'm not letting you get away with this. Please post a link to some documentary evidence, or retract (or at least refrain from propagating this silliness). And don't go all sly and coy and surely you aren't naive enough to believe that silly old 20-F - they're all in it together, the Dutch and British Royals and Big Oil and the SEC, CIA, FBI, NSA, KGB, MI5, in fact everything from AAA to ZZZ, oh yes and... and... and... the Aluminum Bavariati and the TimeDwarfs from Zeta Reticuli and the Justified Ancients of MuMu, I tell you... on me.
Plucky Underdog, I don't have documentation on Shell ownership. I think I got carried away on that one. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, either. I think most people can't keep secrets well enough for big conspiracies. I don't think that there large groups of people huddled together very often.
This argument I've had on this thread is a good example, I don't think there are large groups of people trying to organise with the specific agenda of destroying big oil companies. Sure, there are some real antagonists in a lot of different groups, but its not a conspiracy. I think a lot of the blame comes out of a cultural bias and people not modifying their views as the facts and circumstances change.
In 1960 the Major Oil Companies, the Seven Sisters really did control world oil markets and prices, and they did it through controling the Rail Road Commission of Texas and therefore the production policies of the world's swing producer, Texas. And they were just aas heavily involved in Democratic party politics as they are now with the Republicans. Here's an interesting fact-Joe Kennedy, father of Jack, Bobby and Teddy Kennedy was a big investor in the projects of L.E. Modisette of Houston, a Wildcatter. He owned half the stock in his company, Mokene Oil and the families owned a thousand acre ranch in Rockport together. There's nothing wrong with that, it was an above board deal, but it's influence. The way I know it was my youngest sister was close friends with one of Modisette's granddaughters and visited there a lot, but that was 20 years after the period. And I think that's one of the reasons that Senator Lyndon B. Johnson was picked for Vice President, the good ol' boy system.
But times have really changed. The world growth in oil use is phenominal, and governments all over started oil companies. But, this is below the horizon of most people in the US, and the multinationals haven't really tried to tell what's happened. I think a lot of them relish the idea that they have a lot of power and influence, and
I believe you are right Bob. I would like to add that if Russia does have excess oil capicity to export, they will probably use it to supply consuming members of the SCO, not members of NATO. More political 'above ground' effects showing up. This practice will not effect WTs ELM overall numbers but could increase political and economic tensions dramatically between members of the SCO and Nato.
River,
Considering the horror and distruction cause by the German invasion of the Soviet Union 64 years ago, I wouldn't doubt there is a little lingering resentment making it easier to cut the Germans first.
That's why the Iraq war is going to be our Achille's heel going forward. With the two million deaths attributed to the US/UN embargo in the 1990s and the deaths attributable to this war, as soon as the troops leave we'll never get another drop of Iraqi oil.They'll just choose to do business with the Chinese or Pakistani's first.
The world energy dynamic has totally changed as we peak in production of liquid hydrocarbons. Demand has begun to exceed supply for the last couple of years, oil prices trending up without a big fall just proves the point. If there were a cheap substitute news of the substitute would already be circulating in the crowd that hangs out at TOD. Of course absence of news or a rumor isn't scientific proof, but its a damn good indicator.
Somehow the military industrial complex cheerleaders don't recognise that our past and ongoing behaviour counts. If I were a Moslem in the Middle East I'd be forced to conclude that the US hates Islam. We unswervingly support the most agressive elements of Israeli foreign policy and commit what can only be discribed as genocide, and that's not going to count in our business dealings with them? For the first time in our history except the extermination of our Indian tribes we openly support and encourage torture and they're not supposed to notice?
Once our Army leaves Iraq I expect an embargo. Its the only way the world can defang the US military. That's why we have to start mitigation now, and its going to have to be on a personal basis because our government is so deceptive, paralised and disfuntional. Bob Ebersole
Glad to see Americans coming around to this perspective.
American unilateralism and the misguided attempt to export the American way of life at the end of a rifle does nothing more than eliminate any last vestige of sympathy for America and her problems.
After 9-11 a French newspaper declared "we are all Americans now." America's response was ridicule and rejection.
The current headlines should read "we are all Venzeluan's now." Better that then suffer the fate of the Iraqui people at the hands of Saddham Bush: 60,000 lives and still counting.
A lot of Americans are dismayed at what the bastards are doing. I thought of leaving the country when Bush was reelected, but I decided it would be better to stay here and work to defeat the scumbags.
Dear New Account -
I don't know where you live, presumably outside the U.S. To me, your comment seems typical of people who don't realize how much deeply felt opposition there is to this Administration and it's policies.
Problem is, the Bush Administration and their supporters have perfected the "shout louder" strategy of so-called public discourse. That has made it exceedingly difficult for dissent to be seen and heard.
I have never heard that expression before, but it is very appropriate!
...60,000 lives and still counting.
Were it only so. You are missing a zero at the very minimum.
The Bush administration is an embarrassment to every American, with the exception of our disloyal Christian Right. Please don't imagine he speaks for us - 75% of us would like him out of office next Monday if not sooner.
9/11 was a terrible event brought on by the Bush administration's stupidity at the very least and perhaps studied indifference to the deaths of a few of the "little people" in order to further their ends.
We had a golden chance to declare a new age on 9/12/2001. Instead we set the clock back a hundred years so George could have his chance at the so called "Great Game".
The character the Bush administration has displayed is more appropriate for a rickety west African kleptocracy than the world's last surviving super power.
Please forgive us ...
Absolutely Bob, when a government fails to act in the best interests of 98% of its constituents, how can it claim legitimacy? As far as I can tell our government is now serving the interests of the American elite (2%) and the multinational corporations...one and the same thing. To make matters worse the opinion of ex-cia analyst Ray Mcgovern is that Rove stepped down because he doesnt want to be around to explain why we invaded Iran. Tony Snow is reportedly leaving for the same reason. Seems that Cheney is going to get his way once again.
http://www.antiwar.com/mcgovern/?articleid=11481
River,
The other explanation is that Rove was thrown off the sleigh to the following pack of wolves. They may think he's about to get indicted for the CIA leak.
I don't know what we're going to do. Its too late for an impeachment, if you recall, Watergate took more than a year and those crazies are talking about tactical nukes in Iran now. In my more paranoid moments I think the want to declare martial law and stop the election, because they'll be called to justice for war crimes, and nukeing Iran would give them the justification.
I just hope we didn't permanently loose the Republic when Gore failed to contest the Florida vote.
Bob Ebersole
"Its too late for an impeachment..."
This sentiment gets such a pass. We let him walk away, and all the transgressions he has committed become precident.
They say the next congress will get nothing done in the busy election season. Hogwash. Turn up the dial on investigations regarding anything he has done innaapropriatly and for gawd's sake, please get into writing the exact powers and authorities of the Vice President's office.
I don't care if the investigations and possible trials last well into Shrub's retirement. Pull him back from Paraguay or wherever the hell he slinks off to and ride his ass as long as it takes to clear his mess up.
It's not too late for impeachment. Impeachment takes precedence over all other business in Congress. And shutting down all other business in Congress would be better than continuing Business As Usual - a nice side benefit. The real reason we won't get impeachment is that Democrats fundamentally agree with Republicans in the defacto class warfare/coup that is going on.
I just purchased some solar PV today and had the pleasure of myself and the vendor being run through a terrorist database as part of the process. It's my @#$% money - why does the bank have to play informant? Because both Democrats and Republicans in the last days of this empire agree on the clampdown; it's required for the transition to serious tyranny where no transactions will be allowed except between approved entities.
We won't get impeachment because Democrats would have to appear like they were serious about it when they are serious about not doing it because they want the powers. Time is not the problem.
cfm in Gray, ME
You can impeach officeholders after they leave office. The purpose is to allow criminal prosecution for actions taken under the color of authority.
Exactly right, good for you. This is yet one more thing about our constitution that has been conveniently left untaught and ignored, so most Americans don't know about it.
Rove's potential indictment hinges on some small game played in Alabama over a House seat if I recall correctly. I do so hope that is what is happening, and now if the Democrats would only find the nerve to do what is needed with the rest of them.
If the current crop of Congresscritters were in charge in 1944 our soldiers would never have climbed those cliffs at Normandy ... "Too dangerous!" "We'll take casualties!" "Maybe the Nazis will get nicer as their regime ages!"
"maybe the neocons will get nicer as their regime ages " !
Interesting, this pretty much confirms my assumptions. This also confirms that a high quality aggregator of open source + expert analysis like The Oil Drum is a pretty good resource indeed.
I've written a dozen letters to my Senators about this over the last six months and still the war preparations continue.
Our inevitable war with Iran will ride in on the back of a false flag operation in the continental United States. Yes, the Bush administration is low enough to kill some of our own and blame it on outsiders so we can attack the Iranians.
We fought fascism to its death in 1945 ... only to take up the mantle ourselves sixty years later.
I think that government in Russia sees WW2 as Nazi invasion. Currently Germany is a major economic partner for Russia (probably the biggest economic partner). Putin's relation with previous German chancellor were best ever. I do not think there is any resentment toward Germany.
It's simply an economic actions. I doubt there is any politics or personal feelings involved.
Germany is not doing a thing for Russia that China cannot do more cheaply. Replacing Germany as a major trading partner with China would not be a real big deal. China is willing to sign long term oil/gas deals with Russia...the same deals that Germany and the remainder of Western Europe are complaining about.
I do not think that engineering in China is comparable to German, but that's just an opinion.
Russia is selling it's energy to both Germany and China now. At this point the party that pays the highest price will get the energy and goods will be bought from the company/country that has the lowest price. But say in case of trains I do not think that China can currently compete with Siemens. For subway building Russia buys some specialized machinery from Germany (I presume becasue it's the best equipment for the money). And so on.
My only point was that the discussed action was not political but economical.
Perhaps we should agree to disagree... :)
But maybe Russia needs to consider its relationship with Germany in light of Germany's power in the EU and NATO. If the US is really engaged in an imperialist scheme to encircle Russia, then Germany must cooperate with the US on everything everywhere. Obviously this is not quite the case right now, and the establishment of a permanent EU dependence on Russian energy, facilitated by Germany, can threaten the viability of a US-run NATO, which really should have been retired when the Cold War ended.
Putin speaks fluent german and has spent several years as KGB agent in former East Germany.
Does anybody know how many pipelines go from Russia to the EU? The pipeline which is now delivering less is probably a larger one.
cheers, mr
Only if SCO members will pay more then members of NATO. Oil companies owners are way too greedy to subsidize other countries.
hifisoftware,
82% of the world's oil production is supplied by national oil companies, not big oil companies. And if you think that the 75% of consumption in the world that is supplied by refining that oil can be replaced or substituted overnight, then you've been smoking unrepentantcowboy's products.
While you are at it, you might as well check out the ownership of the big multinational oil companies. You will find that they are 3/4ths owned by institutional investors, i.e. pension funds, mutual funds,and hedge funds. That's the greedy bastards you just criticised, all of us. Its really easy for people to scapegoat and demonise other people instead of looking in the mirror.
Go right ahead and keep on your merry, self deluding track. But don't say I didn't warn you.
Bob Ebersole
You are making the mistake of assuming that the people running the NOCs are not as greedy as those running the IOCs. OK, in economic terms it is not called greed but "persuing-self-interest-that-brings-to-common-good", same thing.
The difference in ownership is only relevant from political perspective - a NOC serves as a guarantee that the pie is shared within a certain economic and political circle. Essentially NOCs are the way poorer countries protect their resources by being taken over by IOCs on the Wall Street. All IOCs are based in the same countries that also control the world financial markets... Hardly a coincidence IMO.
ARAMCO,
the worlds largest producer and the home company of the Saudi Kings is a National Oil Company. So is Lukoil, the Russian oil company and the world's second largest producer. Royal Dutch Shell is owned 25% by the British Royals, and 25% by the Dutch Royals. PDVSA is the oil company of Venezuela, the country with the second highest reserves after the Saudis, is a national oil company.SINOPAK, the China Company that sells all of the Chinese oil products, is a national oil company. AEGIP is the Italian national oil company.
In US refining, CITGO is owned by PDVSA. Motiva and Excelron, are 25% owned by the Saudis. You seem to forget that the Saudi's owned 1/2 of Texaco's Refining at the time of the merger with Chevron.
LevinK, you are talking through your hat. Free markets don't exist in world oil except in the US, Canada and parts of Western Europe like the North Sea. Like I said, its over 4/5ths National Oil Companies, and 3/4ths of the "free market" oil companies are owned by mutual funds and pension funds. If you want to scapegoat someone, go look in the mirror.
Bob Ebersole
I have no idea what caused the tone of your response. Neither where you got the idea I'm "scapegoating" someone. The funny thing is that you are not arguing me and essentially we are saying the same things.
LevinK
I guess that I consider labeling behaviour as greedy to be a moral criticism, part of the eternal self righteousness that says a hardware store can mark up a screw from a penny cost to a nickle sales price, but that oil producers can't make a profit when they take enormous risks.
I don't work for big oil companies and I am far from their greatest fan, yet I get tarred and feathered with the same brush and sack of feathers.
Bob Ebersole
This is a complex discussion. On one hand yes, anybody (not just the oil companies) should be allowed to be rewarded for the risks they take.
On the other hand there are those lines that don't need to be crossed. And we are supposed to have mechanisms to counter it when people/corporations are crossing the lines - when they are harming the common good for their self-interest.
My "greed" labeling is based on a thing I consider a major flaw of conventional economic theories... They always assume that "normal" greed is good and that the players will play by the written and non-written rules and all will be happy and well. While in practice this rarely happens so... What happens in reality is that by uncritically endorsing the "normal" greed we have created a very weak ethics in which millions of people are encouraged to cross millions of visible and invisible lines every day... Should we be surprised by the outcomes?
Now if I am asked to say whether the national or private oil Co's are harming the common good, I'm more inclined to say yes than no:
1) First they are (a vital) part of the common establishment which is currently running the empire we live in and is slowly turning it into a fully functional police state
2) As energy companies they should be the first to ring the bells of oil depletion and the externalities FFs are causing... I know it takes quite a moral strength to do that, but it is in fact their duty to inform the public about what the product they are selling will/may cause to the society. And no, couple of ads on the TV don't do it; it will take the only thing that works in this country - lobbying and some serious money spent so that we can fix these problems. And they know it.
Of course they should be ringing the alarm bells. But big oil companies are made up of people, and most people do not have the wit to understand the situation.And of the ones that do, probably 3/4ths are either in denial or lack moral fiber. I'd like you to consider that M.King Hubbert did his work on Shell's payroll. A number of the people here work in the oil and gas business, and a number who are a lot more influential than I are doing some pretty loud ringing-I'm talking about gentlemen like Matt Simmons and Boone Pickens, who spread the message every day, or Robert Rapier who is the go to guy now for the media on cellusitic ethanol, or WesTexas who has gotten on TV and the radio a number of times, Euan Mearns, SeismoBob, oilrigmedic, mudlogger-and Im sure I'm leaving plenty off.
And we're not all greedy,either.Yesterday on Drumbeat I gave away 3 excellent tertiary development prospects, and I did it for a reason. I want some geologists around here to go get them and start making some more. If they want to hire me as a land consultant and pay me a little override, I sure wouldn't turn it down and can save them months (hint,hint) but, they aren't B.S. they are in the middle of what has been the best producing area of the U.S. and that's where you should look for real tertiary development deals. But, a major oil company can't make money on those kind of deals, too much overhead, and an independent can get really fat. but, the other reason I did it is I am very serious about the alarm I'm trying to raise, if we don't get domestic production up, and consumption down, the US as we know it is doomed. And if we don't get climate change in hand, the world is doomed.
When you trash mouth the oil business you are trashing the people who have brought you gasoline for years at less than the price of bottled water at the same convenience store. People who have made it possible for the modern world to have a population problem. And as Robert has said before, most of them are good, community minded, hard working and try to be patriotic and good citizens of the world. Yes, we have some sociopaths and arrogant fools that manipulate the political process.
Wouldn't you rather have the oil business people on your side? I suspect most of them will be if you don't alienate them and threaten them with unjust taxes and impossible to meet environmental objections. For example, the three projects I mentioned are very well suited for CO2 tertiary development. The Houston area is the biggest concentration of CO2 producing industry in the world. Is Gaia trying to whisper a little in your ear? How about a little synergy and synchronisity people!
Come to the ASPO-USA Conference October 17-20th in Houston. Jim Baldauf, the President of ASPO, and an old enviromental activist is in the oil business. He's been working hard to get industry coverage and participation. But please don't blow it with the angry accusations of greed or malice. That kind of stuff doesnt work-look at Greenpeace. Come, be open minded and lets see what we can actually accomplish.
O.K., Rant Over. Bob Ebersole
Again I don't know why you thought that I was picking on the oilcos. I suspect I hit an open wound with the greed remark, but mind you if I was trying to pick on them I would have been way more specific, and much more expressive too.
Like I said I raised the greed question just to point out that sometimes maximizing the self-interest turns into pure greed, and what is even worse - sometimes people are unable to see how this happens.
Personally I don't think that oil companies are worse or any different for that matter than any other companies in this country. The overwhelming majority of the people working in them are good people doing their job with good intentions with a justified dignity they are helping the society.
And here lies the beginning of the problem I think - even though most people in a organisation may mean well in their own world, on a systematic level their actions may lead to adverse effects. The road to hell is paved with good intentions they say... Here are some chains of unintended consequences:
1) Oil people doing their job well -> US becoming a major oil producing country -> US building Suburbia and getting stuck in it -> Climate Change and Oil Wars ahead
or,
2) People wanting affordable houses -> Banks giving easier and easier loans -> Credit crunch/recession/inflation ahead
3) People chasing American Dream and free enterprise -> First comers getting rich -> US building Corpotocracy -> US maintaing Corpotocracy and its supporting Empire by exploiting the Third World and trashing the environment
All of these chains of events had "good intentions" at their initial step. But somewhere in the chain of events it turned in the wrong direction. The people at the top who are supposed to see the big picture, and saw what was happening were supposed to "ring the bell" and stop it. Did they?
I hope you see my point. You and the people around you are doing what you can, but at the higher levels things obviously are rotten... and the higher you go the more it smells. The funny thing is that I believe to huge extent even those at the higher levels like CEOs are stuck with the status quo - you know shareholders, expensive wives etc. :)
LevinK,
Of course good intentions turn bad, often. The problem is that we as humans are meant to examine our own behavior and the effects we have on the world, and judge ourselves. If you want to consider that the will of God, fine or just some quirk in our software.But, the unexamined life is not woth living...and where did I hear that before?
Do you think that Osama Ben Laden started out wishing to be a monster? And the answer is of course not. He was an idealistic young man who thought he found some kind of easy answer in the Quran so he could live his life following Allah's will. Unfortunately, he had enough money and attracted enough syncopants that he ended up with his horrible ideas enforced as well as the good ones. He wanted to help his fellows free themselves from the Russian invasion, and when they were whipped decided to go after the Western countries who were destroying the purity and strenghth of following God's will (That's the meaning of Islam) and the next thing you know, he's a monster. But have you looked at the joy and happiness in his eyes on the tapes?
Of course he's an extreme example, but we see others all the time. Confucious said that we need to examine our lives by the effect we have on others, and most no shit spiritual leaders rather than monsters say the same thing. I'm pretty much a true agnostic-without knowledge-but I've studied this kind of thing for many years, 12 hours of theology and 15 of philosophy at a Catholic Liberal Arts University, plus read a whole bunch and prayed a whole bunch. As I said, I've concluded I'm without knowledge, But what happened to Ben Ladin happens to others, and the very bright Type A young men who grow up to become board members and CEO's of major corporations are no different. They are mostly surrounded by syncopants (thats ass kissers in Texan) who reenforce their bad ideas as well as their good ones. This happens to political leaders,too. Dick Cheney didn't wake up and say "I'm going to be out of control and threaten the whole world while destroying the United States." But by his failure in self-examination in light of the effect he has on others, that's whats happened.
One thing about shocking events, and we have several in the course of any human life-is that its a wake-up call to examine our own behaviour and a call to change. That's global warming and the peak. And one of the strands that I've tried to separate and reweave is that I need to change my behaviour first, to try to conserve personally. And another is that I'm supposed to try to really hear what someone else is saying and try to act accordingly. That no matter the cause of conflict, I'm wrong when I engage in it. That's why I make these pleas to listen to each other, to try to see our commonality and work together.
This is an open website, and we've got people visiting here for all kinds of reason. From the people who just want to figure out the next stock play, to people who just want to sell you something, to people who want to convert others to a point of view and others who want knowledge or actually have a good solution or two. The bright ones often hang out, and I have real hopes we can find a solution so that the human race can live another few minutes for the next crisis. i do hope we can all be courteous, but i can be baited into reacting too, as you probably noticed on this thread. I apologise for being a little sensitive. But i'd like an apology for stereotyping oil business people.
Bob Ebersole
Bob, I'm sorry that I took a cheap shot by associating oil businessmen with greed. I can assure you that I did not mean it being directed against oil people in particular, just a general rant against the status quo and all those little compromises paving the road to hell... And noone is insured against taking that road - be it an oil company executive, politician or a burger flipper. Even I myself am currently participating in a goverment project which I can easily see is wasting millions of taxpayer's money (like, unfortunately most of our gov projects do for a whole complex of reasons). I am not exactly proud of it but I can only hope that by doing my little part right I could at least reduce the damage, if not make things right.
With all the rest you said I can only agree and have little to add. If only we had not slept through all the self-examination classes of life we'd be living in a much different world now.
In all of your examples, the real problem is that the government didn't do its job. It is the government that is supposed to step in and limit the harm when the "invisible hand" fails to keep things in check as it is magically supposed to.
The reason why we didn't get effective government intervention is because the US is in thrall to an anti-government ideology. We as a society systematically devalue public goods and overvalue private goods. The corporations bear a lot of blame for this, but media, education and even the arts and religion are also complicit. It is pervasive and systematic, and as a result we have now a horribly dysfunctional government.
To point out what I mean, just consider that to advocate public policies that would be considered mainstream in many European countries (e.g.: high gasoline taxes, subsidized development of rail transport, universal health care) would put one well outside the mainstream of both major parties. Indeed, one advocating such policies could hardly even get a hearing, you are dismissed as being a leftie extremist.
The thing is, in many other countries, that's not the leftie extremist position, that's the CENTRIST position. The real lefties go quite a bit farther than that.
Most Americans have no idea how extremist their country has really become over the past few decades.
SNAAARRRRRLLLL!!!!
Tosh. Schtuff Und Nonsenz. Bull-poo. Bob, I've been amused & enlightened by your postings on the US Independent sector, but I'm not letting you get away with this. Please post a link to some documentary evidence, or retract (or at least refrain from propagating this silliness). And don't go all sly and coy and surely you aren't naive enough to believe that silly old 20-F - they're all in it together, the Dutch and British Royals and Big Oil and the SEC, CIA, FBI, NSA, KGB, MI5, in fact everything from AAA to ZZZ, oh yes and... and... and... the Aluminum Bavariati and the TimeDwarfs from Zeta Reticuli and the Justified Ancients of MuMu, I tell you... on me.
My evidence here >>> http://www.shell.com/static/investor-en/downloads/publications/20f/2006_... page 76 (page 82 of the PDF).
PUD
Plucky Underdog, I don't have documentation on Shell ownership. I think I got carried away on that one. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, either. I think most people can't keep secrets well enough for big conspiracies. I don't think that there large groups of people huddled together very often.
This argument I've had on this thread is a good example, I don't think there are large groups of people trying to organise with the specific agenda of destroying big oil companies. Sure, there are some real antagonists in a lot of different groups, but its not a conspiracy. I think a lot of the blame comes out of a cultural bias and people not modifying their views as the facts and circumstances change.
In 1960 the Major Oil Companies, the Seven Sisters really did control world oil markets and prices, and they did it through controling the Rail Road Commission of Texas and therefore the production policies of the world's swing producer, Texas. And they were just aas heavily involved in Democratic party politics as they are now with the Republicans. Here's an interesting fact-Joe Kennedy, father of Jack, Bobby and Teddy Kennedy was a big investor in the projects of L.E. Modisette of Houston, a Wildcatter. He owned half the stock in his company, Mokene Oil and the families owned a thousand acre ranch in Rockport together. There's nothing wrong with that, it was an above board deal, but it's influence. The way I know it was my youngest sister was close friends with one of Modisette's granddaughters and visited there a lot, but that was 20 years after the period. And I think that's one of the reasons that Senator Lyndon B. Johnson was picked for Vice President, the good ol' boy system.
But times have really changed. The world growth in oil use is phenominal, and governments all over started oil companies. But, this is below the horizon of most people in the US, and the multinationals haven't really tried to tell what's happened. I think a lot of them relish the idea that they have a lot of power and influence, and