1 - you've cried wolf many times before, therefore there's no wolf;

As our old pal JMG says, remember that in the parable, the sheep end up getting eaten.

The problem will solve itself.
But not in a nice way.

jbunt

What is the source of this "cried wolf" crap. I have been following oil for 40 years, and other than Jimmy Carter or maybe some unknown environmentalist - who has actually written a well documented book in the last 40 years that has previously said that PO is (was) here. Even now, the consensus (among PO experts) is that it is near, but perhaps not quite. Although recent statistics have peaked, we are not sure what, if any, production restraints are in place due solely to a lack of transparency from KSA, among others.