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109 comments on DrumBeat: September 3, 2007

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WNC Observer on September 3, 2007 - 11:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The thought occurs to me that with so much arctic ice melted due to global warming, August may be the new July, and the hurricane season might now not end until sometime in December. Should there be anything to this hypothesis, that means that any thought that we are almost out of the woods for this year would be premature.

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AlanfromBigEasy on September 3, 2007 - 2:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

In the mid-latitudes (25, 30 degrees or so), the daily reduction in insolation and longer night time radiation losses, would work against any significant lengthening of the "at risk" season for Cat 3+ hurricanes. Warmer water (no serious storms in the GoM in 2006 and so far in 2007) will likely add several days/a week to the at risk period.

A comparable argument can be made for other sources of heating.

Best Hopes,

Alan

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Duma on September 3, 2007 - 2:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

IIRC the rhyme I learnt while sailing in the carribean was:

June too soon,
July stand by,
August you must,
September remember,
October all over.

Recent history would suggest this needs to be shunted forward at least one month.

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