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16 comments on Sixth Annual ASPO Conference – Cork, Ireland
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16 comments on Sixth Annual ASPO Conference – Cork, Ireland
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One must admit to being a bit disappointed by the speakers scheduled.
It seems as though a "Golden Age" is now behind us. Where are the "big lights" of the "movement", Matthew Simmons, Richard Rainwater, Ken Deffeyes, Richard Heinberg, and the old flamethrower himself, James Howard Kunstler? And the heavy hitters in the oil industry like T. Boone Pickens?
The policy wonks like Robert Hirsch?
And then, we see the great iconic image, "The General Depletion Picture, OIL AND GAS PRODUCTON PROFILES, 2006 BASE CASE", with that "peak", murky curve at the top still about 3 years out in front of us as it has been for so many years, taunting and so tauntingly close....and then HORROR!
Or is is it? the scenario now so famous still shows oil and gas being produced at a rate in 2018 or so that was being produced in 2010.
Out at 2030, we see oil and gas production finally getting back to about where we are now.
And at about 2045, when the first of the baby boomers born will turn 100, oil and gas would still being produced at a pace that has only been known in this new century, post 2000.
ABSOLUTELY ASTOUNDING. It is from this original geology that all the "Mad Max" scenarios, all the "back to the farm" for the masses scenarios, the "death of global trade and modern technology" scenarios, the "Ulduvian Gorge" world lit only by fire scenarios, the end of private property, the end of private transportation and liberty, the end of economies and paper money, the end of medical care, the end of......ALL THIS BUILT FROM THE GEOLOGY WE SEE IN THE GRAPH ABOVE....
Has there ever been greater proof of humankinds deep NEED to believe in some form of retribution, some form of PUNISHMENT for the sin of enjoying life? The human soul has a self loathing factor built right into it, a fuel for the philosophy of nihlism that is the one infinite fuel that will know no peak.
Perhaps the lack of the great names, the flamethrowers of the movement is a decline from the great rhetorical peak of the peak oil "movement, and what are seeing on the "backside" is a return to the geology, the science, the real options that are already being employed, the gritty business of dealing with a serious problem in an adult and rational way.
Perhaps.
RC
Interesting, I am actually of the opinion that this years speakers combination is the best yet. A serious program with good diversity.
If you want doomerish views, better read a semi-scientific book :) If you want serious options to mitigate peak oil, go to an ASPO conference!
Rembrandt,
Good positive take on the speakers list, and I don't want to be mistaken, from what I can find out about most of them, it should be an interesting forum.
Sadly, I cannot afford to fly to Ireland (I have always wanted to go just to see the place, being of Irish extraction, but like many Americans of Irish extraction, I am not wealthy....:-(
Hope those who do go will report back for us....and I agree with you, I do think the ASPO scenarios and mitigation ideas are more credible than many of the "Johny come lately's".
RC
I agree, it's a great speaker lineup. However, for anyone wishing for some of the more "traditional" names, and/or for anyone that can't afford to go to Cork, there will be an ASPO USA conference in Houston Oct. 17-20.
Among the speakers are:
T. Boone Pickens, Matt Simmons, Arthur Smith, Henry Groppe, Chris Skrebowski, Stuart Staniford, Euan Mearns, Jeffry Brown, Robert Hirsch, and Peter Tertzakian, plus 30 more speakers.
This conference also promises to be enlightening and well rounded. More info at www.aspo-usa.org
I don't think there is a lack of "great names". In fact quite the opposite, I think the calibre of speaker is the best yet, the most mainstream and the most credible ASPO has fielded. I don't want to take anything away from the fantastic work your great names have done over the last few years but there is a limit to the influence people like Heinberg and Kunstler have outside the movement.
I see it as a good thing that the conference isn't dominated by speakers from the traditional peak oil movement. When we have people like Bauquis (Total), Franssen (IEA), Gilbert (BP), Oxburgh (Shell), Schlesinger (US Gov.) - former affiliations I grant you, addressing this issue it shows how much more acceptable it is becoming. If we want our current politicians to take peak oil seriously the message must be delivered by people seen to be highly credible.
I hope and I think this is, as you put it getting on with “the gritty business of dealing with a serious problem in an adult and rational way.”
On Campbell's graph, I don't read post peak curves are predictions of what will be produced, but rather an envelope within which future production will fall.