<Mexico: A Nation-State Dissolves?The Oil DrumDrumBeat: September 11, 2007>

263 comments on When Is "Global Peak Energy?" According to Publicly Available Data, Probably Sooner Than You Think

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biologist on September 10, 2007 - 1:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Sorry, I don't dig this one. The analysis is completely unrealistic - solar and wind energy usage DECLINING post-peak. We need better posts to reach the general audience, with this one THEOILDRUM would be considered just another Doomer's Lair.

Solar warm water and wind energy are proven to have EROEI much greater than 1 and can be produced locally and low tech. There is no reason to assume that usage would go down after fossil energy peaks.

The other flaws of the article are more complex, hope they will be discussed further down. No time now, got to work.

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wkwillis on September 10, 2007 - 4:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Reallistically, solar and wind will continue to increase for a very long time at their present very high growth rates, and these growth rates will increase from their very high levels if the price of the fossil fuels continues to increase from their present very high levels.
We are not going to die due to lack of energy. We may die from fighting over the last barrel of oil, though, if we continue to elect idiots and ideologues.

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SontagC on September 10, 2007 - 7:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

" We may die from fighting over the last" windmill and solar panel.

Hi,

I hope solar, wind and water are able to continue increasing.

If you get a chance, track down David Brin's short story The Postman. One of the interesting speculations of the short story was what would happen to all the little survivalist refuges outfitted with windmills and solar panels during a major collapse of civilization. Brin suggested that they will be fought over until they are all smashed in a desparate chance to control them. It's not a pretty prediction.

While some may criticize his predictions as mere speculation, look at what happens to property during civil wars when order breaks down and KAOS reigns. Look at the pictures of the former Yugoslavia from the 1990's with it's burnt out buildings, smashed and wrecked cars, downed powerlines, ripped up roads and railroads, hungry dogs and mass grave sites. In combat situation, property a shield. At -40 below, fine chippendale furniture and ancient tomes burn all so toasty for keeping one warm. And when folks are hungry, men and women both will kill and women become prostitutes. And speaking of sex, are people in poverty able to afford/find/use condoms. NO! Do I need to go into what is happening with AIDS infection rates in war torn subsaharan Africa?

My hope is that the people will be rational enough to allow first rationing and then mobilization at the early stages, and finally wholesale lifestyle changes at the later stages to get through this crisis. We have had a history of rationing and mobilization. I think we can change our lifestyles but it will take time and leadership. And as this is America, if the lifestyle shift occurs, it will be with a lot of grousing, complaining, carping, whining, stamping of feet, redbaiting, threats and scenes of violence.

The alternatives is letting lose the 4 horsemen.

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