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88 comments on Modeling Oil Production to Estimate URR - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and World
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88 comments on Modeling Oil Production to Estimate URR - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and World
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GAIA Host Collective
Great analysis!
Your logistics analysis seems to reinforce the need for accurate URR estimates, as usual. Although, I think the lower numbers 'seem' to reflect the political realities we are witnessing.
IMO, your "APPARENT PEAK" concept has immense value and is reinforced by the realities of global interaction. The supply rate of change is slowing dramatically while the opposite is true for demand.
Even if we obtain a minor increase in production in All liquids in the next couple years...it will have to be offset by a dramatic decrease in demand BEFORE then...so the APPARENT PEAK(all liquids) is now or slightly in the past.
I have been looking at the IEA numbers for 2007. For the first 8 months the average production has been 85.1 M b/d. If production were to average 86.0 M b/d for the next 4 months, highly unlikely, the average for the year would be 85.4 M bpd. Production in 2006 was 85.16 M bpd. The projected 2007 production numbers would represent a modest 0.28% increase over 2006.
Perhaps, the more significant production numbers to be looking forward to are the December 2007 and first quarter 2008 numbers to get an idea of whether there will be any production growth in 2008.