188 comments on Declining Net Oil Exports Versus “Near Record High” Crude Oil Inventories: What is going on?
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luisdias, I think you should consider that not only will most producing countries try their best to follow Westexas model but will be encouraged in that, as far as the US is concerned, by the decreasing value of the US dollar.
Personally I would not purchase US dollars right now and I do not see exporting countries trading their goods, as readily as previously, for those dollars.
Yes the US military may momentarily trump Westexas's model but judging by how things have gone in Iraq I would not expect something in that order to be very effectual in the long range in solving US oil needs. Bullying only succeeds up to a certain point. I think the action in Iraq has, as well, diminished US political power greatly, one has only to look to south America , half a world away from Iraq yet next right door to the US, to see how that power has been reduced.
I think we are in for interesting times as to who gets what and how.
Of course they will try! nobody likes being robbed. Remember Carter's doctrine though. USA will not negotiate American's way of life!
Well, I'm a believer of Yoda's preachings, so I fully agree with you: in long term, it will be bad. Something in the order of Violence generates Hate, Hate generates Fear, Fear to the dark side will lead you, hmmmm!
But it may just be enough for the USA plummet after the others. Now, this is speculation. I am not really predicting. I predict USA's reaction and this is what they will try to do. And I see a closing gap for them to do it, but it still exists. Remember that the oil market depends on the US army to be secure. Remember that!
Personal opinion: The US will lose its access to oil in the back half of the total of nations. I wouldn't venture to guess where in that back half though. It might be at the 51% mark or clear back at the end as the 100th% of the loss. But if I had to guess, I'd put the US losing its access to exported oil after roughly 2/3rds of the rest of the world has lost their access to the same. This is all seat of the pants guessing, of course, since none of us know what the future actually holds. We can only look at trends and try to extrapolate.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
"Yes the US military may momentarily trump Westexas's model but judging by how things have gone in Iraq I would not expect something in that order to be very effectual in the long range in solving US oil needs."
Considering that the DOD is the largest consumer of oil in the world, it seems to me that no matter how much oil we attain through such military action, most of it would have to go to the government/military just to keep the military operational. How well this would go over with the American public when they realized these wars were not getting them any more energy to keep their cars running and their homes warm, I can only imagine - unless, of course, we're under martial law and we have no say in the matter.
Linda
The U.S. Department of Defense uses about 200,000 barrels of oil a day, less than 1% of the overall U.S. usage.
On the serious topic of the U.S. or some other country using military force to take oil - it seems unlikely that the U.S. would do this. Does anyone on this board think we ought to? I can't recall talking to anybody who does. The current Iraq conflict is not an example of seizing oil, since Iraqi oil is being sold to all kinds of players, many unfriendly to the U.S., and the Iraqi oil the U.S. gets is paid for at near record prices.
The Iraqi war, combined with mindboggling incompetence on the part of the Bush Administration, has just about demolished the US's ability to dictate to the world. Our economy is crumbling, etc. etc., so it is a fantasy that oil exporters (like Iran) will fear the US government more than their own people.
Quite the reverse. From Iran's model, we can see that cutting subsidies is a great way of losing legitimacy. and if it is in teh name of being able to sell it to American imperialists, that is even worse.
Yes, we have money (compared to India), but that will only go so far.
A quick check on Google, and I didn't see any recent estimates of US Military oil consumption that were below 320,000 bbls/day. I think you're off by about 50% (not that that invalidates your point...it is still not a large percentage of overall US consumption).
Arkansawyer
The DoD is the biggest user of oil in the world.
"On the serious topic of the U.S. or some other country using military force to take oil - it seems unlikely that the U.S. would do this"
You aren't serious about this?
Even with the Greenspan announcement, you still think US didn't go to Iraq for oil?
We all know that oil price is balanced on supply/demand (mostly).
If US is able to flood China, Japan, EU, etc with cheaper Iraqi oil, they can buy cheaper oil from elsewhere themselves (closer to home).
It's still stealing, even if you give it away to others to use.
Let's see what US does now that Iraqi government refuses to push the oil bill forward.
If it truly wasn't about stealing oil, as you suggest, US would let the people of Iraq do what they want. In good and bad.
However, I see it very unlikely it'll come to that.
As for people who advocate stealing oil, there are plenty of those on this board (if you read the backlog) and many other boards (go to peakoil.com for a large sampling).
It's not stealing when WE do it!