The Oil Drum

They have not begun drilling Antarctica.

You left out the moon and the planets.

The point is not that finding oil stops, but that we are finding less than a third of the amount that is being produced each year. My only question to the panel related to depletion rates (I think that using 4% when you have switched to horizontal wells is a bit optimistic) and it is in this inability to develop enough reserves that leads us into trouble.

Rainsong,

Peak oil doesn't mean the end of oil discovery or production. But it does mean that the largest, cheap to produce reservoirs have been discovered and the oil that is left to produce is more expensive and often less desireable because of heavy gravity (its thick and doesn't flow well) or the presence of sulfur or heavy metal contaminents that make the oil more costly to refine, so it was passed by when it was discovered in the past. and the large discoveries that are left tend to be in areas that are difficult to produce. You mentioned a 2 billion barrel field in Kazakstan, that's north of Afganistan and with no seacoast, so its going to have to have a transnational pipeline constructed to get to a port, or moved in railcars. The closest likely refining point is China, if a pipeline can be built across Mongolia to reach it, or a pipeline to the Black Sea. You mentioned no exploration in Antartica-there are no people living on the whole continent, the exploration and development cost will be phenominal.

Oil will never completely run out. Onshore fields in inexpensive production areas will ooze oil at a slow rate forever. The Bradford field in North-eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New York has been producing since the 1870's, and Texas's oldest field, Corsicana also still produces some oil. The pumping units are on timers, and when the casing fills up with oil the pump comes on and pumps out a barrel or so. But the rock lacks pressure to move the oil through the rock and into the well very quickly. But, a big company can't make money on production like that, they have too much overhead. They need high volume production to justify their labor, and much of the high volume production is gone.
Bob Ebersole

Chevron in Kazakhstan ?? Sounds like another black mud deposit. The Kazakh's wont part with that easily. Wildcat discovery in Eygpt ? I think that was just water that smelled like kerosene.