52 comments on The ASPO Conference - Second Morning
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52 comments on The ASPO Conference - Second Morning
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GAIA Host Collective
From 1897 to 1916, a 2/3rds to 3/4ths smaller and MUCH poorer United States of America built subways and elevated rail in all of her larger cities and streetcars in *500* cities and towns !
Twenty, not forty years, and without modern technology !
Alan
Would it be fair to say that the primary reasons this might not be so easily done in the 21st century are economic? Lower labor costs probably had a significant impact on the ability of municipalities and private companies to build systems, roads and bridges.
Probably not fair if you factor in inflation. Today's high labor costs will look just as much a bargain in the rear view mirror as the low labor costs of 1992, 1972, 1952, and so on.
Oh if we could only pay for yesterday's labor with today's inflated dollars and incomes. And Mr. Greenspan might be right for once when he sees higfher inflation ahead.
The GNP of the USA, inflation adjusted, is 25 times greater today than it was in 1910.
Labor is labor, whether paid four silver dimes per hour or $21/hour (depending upon skill level of course).
The USA, with a much smaller population, also had much less labor available AND the only methods known in 1910 required MUCH more labor than modern methods.
In 1910, holes were dug with pick & shovel. Backhoes today.
In 1910, crowbars and gangs of men adjusted track, Hydraulic jacks today do it faster with fewer men.
in 1910 concrete was mixed by hand on site and spread by hand. Today we use concrete mix trucks and concrete pumps.
In 1910, supplies came in via mule drawn wagons, today much faster & larger capacity trucks (tomorrow battery trucks from the rail served warehouse ?)
In 1910, wooden ties were the only choice. Today, concrete is the most common choice, with composite (recycled plastic) ties as common as wood.
In 1910, jointed track was bolted together, today it is welded (much less labor, easier on rolling stock).
Etc. Etc, Etc.
In the turn-of-the-century era, the USA devoted a significant social & economic effort to build Urban Rail. A MUCH lower effort today could do MUCH MORE today. That is the force multiplier of technology and capital.
Best Hopes,
Alan
The following systemic differences might have some bearing on this:
(comparing 38->78 to 2017->20x7)
1) Growth vs replacement. Growing on empty is generally easier than a whole systemic replacement (e.g. fill a void vs displace/replace)
2) Economic growth curve vs economic stalling/diminishing curve (the productive economy actually grew then, now it's 70-90% financial economy that grows. Productive physical economy is being down-sized, off-shored, labor-shorted and just plain let to rot)
3) Somewhat united political/economic trend vs splintered aims (e.g. modernism of tech/edu/economic development vs our current risk-based post-modern state of beings that pulls into various mutually non-complementary directions)
4) Strong political leadership vs failing political leadership (need I say more?)
5) Honest hard working citizens vs lazy-ass complaining professional consumers (sorry to put it bluntly, but we've become more of the latter)
6) Longer term economic planning vs. make profit this quarter and slightly worry about the next (harder to finance, build and steer projects with 20-40 year horizons and co-ordinate those together across industries)
In this situation, yes, I think it probably would be possible to change things in equal or less time (barring no limit from energy sources), but it would also probably require a big external impetus or several of them.
The old modernist "let's design and build a better world, because we can" ethos is dead and buried for the most part.
Now it's more of "every man for himself", which doesn't necessarily help in the matter (although Austrian school economists will of course vehemently disagree, just on principle)
But with cheap energy and materials available locally. That makes a big difference.
Would you have to develop industries to replace oil with coal gasification? No more than you would have to with total electrical transport. They're both going to cost a bundle and take decades.
But with cheap energy and materials available locally. That makes a big difference.
Would you have to develop industries to replace oil with coal gasification? No more than you would have to with total electrical transport. They're both going to cost a bundle and take decades.