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Bob Breck, the best weatherman in New Orleans IMO (and better than NWS people) had two scenarios if things do develop (good chance that they may not) as of last night.
80% is a curve close to coast and Mississippi impact. Water not so hot right next to the coast (seasonal coolign and recent cold front), New Orleans is on the "good side" of that path.
20% is straighter, further south, over hotter water and impact somewhere around Barataria. New Orleans on the bad side of a stronger hurricane and water will be forced into Lake Pontchartrain.
This morning two potential centers remain, with two very different paths.
Best Hopes,
Alan
*MASSIVE* uncertainty ATM. Know much more late this evening.
Not a Major Hurricane for sure !
Bob Breck @ 9 PM news. "I expect very slow development"
Path also looks good for New Orleans, with a small chance of the worst path, going south of the city. (Direct hit just means lots of rain). Rain and flooding are the major risk from this tropical depression.
Good weather forecasters need some courage and not always covering their tail.
Best Hopes,
Alan
I am really happy to see this Alan. :) Let's hope it doesn't surprise anyone.
Bob Breck is GOOD and has guts ! Willing to go out on a limb.
His analysis appeals to my technical analysis side.
The Saturday night before Katrina he rolled up his sleeves and showed where to write one's social security # in indelible ink if someone chose not to evacuate. Make it easier to ID the body.
Local TV news in New Orleans is better than National & Cable news.
Alan