<The ASPO Conference - Final Afternoon The Oil Drum DrumBeat: September 23, 2007>

147 comments on Peak Oil Update - September 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

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PartyGuy on September 21, 2007 - 12:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Or that the other forecasts are merely following trends. If you notice on the lower left hand corner of the graph, there was a period of 3-4 years in which oil production globally was on a similar plateau. Even the ASPO seems to think we will have a tick up in oil production for a peak in the 2010-2012 time frame.

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SamuM on September 21, 2007 - 1:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Or that the forecasts are for TOTAL (estimated) cumulative production (integral of the function in the graph), not accurate day-to-day production rate.

Hence, estimates will be 'wrong' for month-to-month estimates, even if they might be dead on accurate about the actual final production in the end.

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PartyGuy on September 21, 2007 - 1:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I doubt some people would be happy with any forcast if it doesn't show an immediate and continual decline nor follow the month to month fluctuations perfectly!! (Sarconal)

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westexas on September 21, 2007 - 1:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Re: Cumulative Production Versus Annual Production Rate

That is the point I made in the June, 2007 article on HL:

In Defense of the Hubbert Linearization Method (June, 2007)
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2007/06/in-defense-of-hubbert-linearizat...

The Russian HL plot did suggest that Russia should be declining soon, which is why I found the following article interesting:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/07/10/042.html
Tuesday, July 10, 2007. Issue 3695. Page 5.
The Moscow Times: Alfa Report Sees Trouble Looming in Russian Oil Sector
By Anatoly Medetsky
Staff Writer

Alfa Bank warned on Monday that "production stagnation is unavoidable" at the country's oil fields and further downgraded its target prices for shares in most Russian oil companies. . .

. . The increasing proportion of water in total output was a major source of concern, the bank's analysts wrote. This causes a quickening in the rate of natural production decline at most fields.

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147 comments on Peak Oil Update - September 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

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