I doubt some people would be happy with any forcast if it doesn't show an immediate and continual decline nor follow the month to month fluctuations perfectly!! (Sarconal)

Re: Cumulative Production Versus Annual Production Rate

That is the point I made in the June, 2007 article on HL:

In Defense of the Hubbert Linearization Method (June, 2007)
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2007/06/in-defense-of-hubbert-linearizat...

The Russian HL plot did suggest that Russia should be declining soon, which is why I found the following article interesting:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/07/10/042.html
Tuesday, July 10, 2007. Issue 3695. Page 5.
The Moscow Times: Alfa Report Sees Trouble Looming in Russian Oil Sector
By Anatoly Medetsky
Staff Writer

Alfa Bank warned on Monday that "production stagnation is unavoidable" at the country's oil fields and further downgraded its target prices for shares in most Russian oil companies. . .

. . The increasing proportion of water in total output was a major source of concern, the bank's analysts wrote. This causes a quickening in the rate of natural production decline at most fields.