65 comments on ASPO 6: Have we reached the tipping point?
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Two barrels of oil are used for each one found. $100 oil anyone?
"September 21, 2007
ROME -- For the peak-oil crowd, that merry band of doomsters who believe global oil production is about to go into irreversible decline and plunge us into a new Stone Age, the timing couldn't have been better. As the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas was holding its conference in Cork, Ireland, earlier this week, oil prices conveniently set record prices.
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The predictions for oil at $100-plus a barrel are now no more far-fetched than oil at $50.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070921.IBREGULY21/TPS...
"that merry band of doomsters"
Which is no different than "that doomsterish band of merrymakers" !
Are they wearing camouflage tights?
We're butch!
--C
Speak for yourself
jmygann,
Actually the finding rate is more gloomy than the annual reports would let us believe. The replacement rate is always given as barrels of oil equivalent, or B.O.E., figured at 6 MCF(thousand cubic feet) equals 1 barrel of oil.
Natural gas isn't oil. A car can be altered to burn NG, but there are few road vehicles using N.G., and it can its expensive to alter NG into other hydrocarbon products.
Natural gas isn't equivalent on a price basis either. NG is going to average around $6.00/mcf as a sales price because of the huge LNG imports into the US from stranded gas overseas and the decline in the US manufacturing base. There's also a big increase in offshore production-the Independence Hub is adding about 25% to US domestic production and started this year. At $6/MCF natural gas would have to recieve $12.19/MCF to equal oil in revenue to the producers and revenue owners at $83.00/bbl.
So when Exxon/Mobil says they replaced twice its reserves on a BOE basis, the figures aren't accurate, especially considering that the gas tends to be in areas where the gas is unproduceable without large investment in LNG compression and the world market is already oversupplied. I just inherited some stock in XOM, Chevron and Devon. I think I'm going to sell it and invest in some oil production because of this differential and oil prices rising. If the stock analists ever figure this out it will make for a large, permanent shift down in the price of the big boy's stock because of the huge write-offs that they will have to take. Of course the SEC is a lot more responsible to investment banks and large cap companies that to investors like me with our little chump change, so it will be awhile before they are forced to acknowledge the truth. It depends on how long bi oil can keep revenues up with prior discoveries and refinery and marketing profits. The time bomb is ticking away, we just don't know the explosion date. Bob Ebersole
What are the present ideas on when we might see world peak NG according to Oil Drum sources ?
DocScience
XOM books just enough qatar gas every year to show a plus in boe reserves. IMO the majors simply can't replace their reserves any more... except very expensively in Alberta. IMO the best places to invest are small us e&p's, plus one intermediate.
I like GPOR best - fabulous potential in their second LA field, Hackberry, where they are using 3d seismic to identify pools left behind in an old field, plus they have a good play in Alberta. Then OXY and ARD.