132 comments on DrumBeat: September 30, 2007
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132 comments on DrumBeat: September 30, 2007
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Another image is Wiley facing a speeding train, a bullet, a bomb etc. We are right now facing competition as far as what will be the key overshoot condition that causes our economies to crumble. GW,Peak Oil etc etc.
Whats amazing to me is that its fairly easy to access all these issues and become concerned that we are facing potentially dire situations in the near future.
Yet the world seems hell bent on ignoring all this and its party on. And to me the real tragedy is how our elected officials are handling this. One thing that is now missed is that part of being a leader is making unpopular decisions that are the right thing to do. This concept has been completely abandoned and I think its one of the key reasons why we will not recognize or problems until its too late.
Both our political and our economic systems are very short-sighted. One of the most depressing articles I've come across is the one where a survey of CEOs showed that they are all very worried about high energy costs and climate change, but they aren't doing anything about it. Basically, they are hoping that it won't happen on their watch. The politicians are doubtless doing the same thing: just hoping it will hold off until it's someone else's problem.
And why not? It's always worked before. As the cornucopian types like to point out, people have been warning that we'll run out of resources since Malthus, and about climate change for 30 or 40 years. But business as usual has gone on, more or less as usual.
That does not mean it will go on forever, but it does give people reasonable hope that when TSHTF, it will be someone else's problem.
It may be that politicians, even if they are PO aware will be reluctant to speak out. When confronted with an unusual challenge or novel threat, the most common response of administrators is to ignore it. Errors of commission are seen to be worse than errors of omission. In business and public administration it is always good to be correct, but if one has to be wrong, it is best to be wrong at the same time as everyone else and if you don't do anything you can't do anthing wrong! From their point of view it is a no-brainer.
Tom Whipple put it this way:
Maybe W will announce peak oil as a parting gift to his successor. That could set up a chance for Republican victories in 2010 and 2012, because of the economic downturn that would likely result.
I can see how governmental members might not want to publicize PO or threats of economic collapse. However, they should be making quiet preparations. For example, we could have heavily funded NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) for the last decade or more. Just like Kennedy set a goal of putting a man on the moon we could have set a goal of XX% of electric power generated by the sun. We could have been building a series of 1GW solar power plants as experiments. We could have been slowly ratcheting up CAFE standards. None of this has to be related to a public sense of panic or fear.
On a side note, this administration has had no qualms about scaring the public with threats of terror, mushroom clouds over American cities, etc. Recall the advice to go out and buy duct tape and plastic sheeting?
When you get right down to it someone is going to have to do without. Without energy, food, medicine, something, and this will cause death. This holds horror to most peoples sense of decency, so avoiding it makes a lot of sense to me.
Publicly and privately we do not want to play god and choose by conscience thought who gets to live and who gets to die. There are exceptions to this - usually people who have not witnessed war vs vets such as the ones on Ken Burns latest special on WW ll.
I just finished the book called "The Road". Fiction about post nuke war. Most chilling was the actions between the groups of survivors. Kill or be killed, hide, steal, all rules leave, as the search for food was paramount.
Nature will choose for us who lives and dies, I guess she always has.
PO, GW, etc. is getting more mainstream press notably in National Geographic. The last two years of articles are dealing more and more with the problems we face.
The last issue deals directly with biofuels. There is no bio anything that will save our current auto life style here in the US. The powers that be are trying to hang on, I fear that common sense will be the least common sense in the future and we will suffer more than necessary. I would not want to be a Hispanic in the US today. I think they will become the scapegoat of the coming collapse.
As so many are keen to point out we can build a new future. Sustainable buildings (high thermal mass, airtight construction and heat recovery ventilation) We can design communities intelligently and avoid the need to consume as much energy in the first place. Things are looking bad now but 5 - 10 years down the line they could very easily be infinatly worse, thats why its so important to make this a big issue. We need a way to reform our economies that takes into account energy, emissions, health and hapiness. The bigggest health issue in the 'civilised' world is obesity. With a better diet and excercise many health benefits would come. This issues ties up so many others and gives us an oppotunity to work out so many things in hopefully a short space of time. Video conferencing, teleworking and web 2.0 allow ideas to spread so fast to so many people.
Does 'waking up' (to use the matrix analogy) more people actually speed us towards economic problems as they no longer take part in the race? As good as the ELP plan is would it cause problems if implemented by many people on a short time scale. Low skilled local jobs are going to be a big area, I see large groups of volunteers tending to farm land, renivating large housing into multi person housing, teaching and caring for children as jobs and travel are likely to be harder to come by. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that we can build strong local economies where everyone plays a part especially the pub land lord :)
Population decline could be managed without a lot of excess deaths, if we lived in a rational world and could employ a little foresight.
Those people are out-bred---and eventually that means their resources appropriated---by religious fanatics with none.